Last year, I wrote an article regarding where Best Picture contenders usually emerge from as it concerns the fall film festivals – Venice, Telluride, TIFF, NYFF & AFI Fest. I wanted to revisit this now that the fall film festivals are starting up, and we have last year’s Oscar results, giving us a nice fifteen years’ worth of data to pull from. I decided to look back since the beginning of the Best Picture expansion from 2009 to find where each of the nominees screened in addition to having their world premieres and not just with the fall film festivals but also with Sundance, Berlin, SXSW, and Cannes. Here is what I found…
WP = World Premiere
* = Won Best Picture
Sundance Film Festival
2023: Past Lives (WP)
2022: None
2021: CODA* (WP)
2020: The Father (WP), Judas And The Black Messiah (premiered a year later) (WP), Minari (WP) & Promising Young Woman (WP)
2019: None
2018: None
2017: Call Me By Your Name (WP) & Get Out (WP)
2016: Manchester By The Sea (WP)
2015: Brooklyn (WP)
2014: Boyhood (WP) & Whiplash (WP)
2013: None
2012: Beasts Of The Southern Wild (WP)
2011: None
2010: The Kids Are All Right (WP) & Winter’s Bone (WP)
2009: An Education (WP) & Precious (WP)
An average of one Best Picture nominee a year will typically screen at Sundance. The maximum has been four (three if you don’t count Judas And The Black Messiah, seeing how it played at the 2021 festival due to the elongated voting window that year). All of the Best Picture nominees to play at Sundance have been world premieres.
Berlin International Film Festival
2023: Past Lives
2022: Tár (played at the 2023 festival)
2021: None
2020: None
2019: None
2018: Vice (played at the 2019 festival)
2017: Call Me By Your Name
2016: None
2015: None
2014: Boyhood, The Grand Budapest Hotel (WP) & Selma (played at the 2015 festival)
2013: American Hustle (played at the 2014 festival)
2012: None
2011: Extremely Loud And Incredibly Close (played at the 2012 festival)
2010: The Kids Are All Right & True Grit (played at the 2011 festival)
2009: None
Very rarely does a Best Picture nominee play at Berlin unless it’s a Sundance Film Festival debut making another stop before its theatrical release or a Best Picture contender playing for international audiences before voting closes. The maximum was three in 2014, though if you don’t count “Selma,” seeing how it played the following year, then the maximum should be two. Only one Best Picture nominee has had its world premiere at Berlin since the expansion of the Best Picture field, and that was Wes Anderson’s “The Grand Budapest Hotel” in 2014. No Best Picture winner has screened at the festival.
SXSW Film Festival
2023: None
2022: Everything Everywhere All At Once* (WP)
2021: None
2020: Promising Young Woman
2019: None
2018: None
2017: None
2016: None
2015: None
2014: Boyhood & The Grand Budapest Hotel
2013: None
2012: None
2011: None
2010: Winter’s Bone
2009: The Hurt Locker*
The most notable thing to ever happen at SXSW regarding the Oscar race was the world premiere of “Everything Everywhere All At Once,” which went on to be a true underdog during Oscar season and would eventually become one of the biggest winners of all-time during its awards season run. Because of the festival’s tendency to program genre films that don’t typically fall within the Academy’s wheelhouse, don’t expect to see another world premiere from this festival go on to Oscar glory any time soon.
Cannes Film Festival
2023: Anatomy Of A Fall (WP), Killers Of The Flower Moon (WP) & The Zone Of Interest (WP)
2022: Elvis (WP), Top Gun: Maverick & Triangle Of Sadness (WP)
2021: Drive My Car (WP)
2020: None
2019: Once Upon A Time In Hollywood (WP) & Parasite* (WP)
2018: BlacKkKlansman (WP)
2017: None
2016: Hell Or High Water (WP)
2015: Mad Max: Fury Road
2014: None
2013: Nebraska (WP)
2012: Amour (WP)
2011: The Artist* (WP), Midnight In Paris (WP) & The Tree Of Life (WP)
2010: None
2009: Inglourious Basterds (WP) & UP (WP)
Cannes has always been a great place for Best Picture nominees to emerge from, as some of the year’s most acclaimed films come from the festival, with two Best Picture winners in the last 15 years. In recent years, we’ve seen the world’s largest and most prestigious film festival increase its presence with the Academy due to the membership of AMPAS becoming more international than ever before, with three Best Picture nominees emerging from the festival two years in a row. Expect to see this trend continue as “Anora,” “Emilia Perez,” and “The Seed Of The Sacred Fig” vie for Best Picture nominations this year.
Venice Film Festival
2023: Maestro (WP) & Poor Things (WP)
2022: The Banshees Of Inisherin (WP) & Tár (WP)
2021: Dune (WP) & The Power Of The Dog (WP)
2020: Nomadland* (WP)
2019: Joker (WP) & Marriage Story (WP)
2018: The Favourite (WP), Roma (WP) & A Star Is Born (WP)
2017: The Shape Of Water* (WP) & Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (WP)
2016: Arrival (WP), Hacksaw Ridge (WP) & La La Land (WP)
2015: Spotlight* (WP)
2014: Birdman* (WP)
2013: Gravity (WP) & Philomena (WP)
2012: None
2011: None
2010: Black Swan (WP)
2009: The Hurt Locker* (WP the year before)
The official Oscar launchpad for huge contenders has consistently been the Venice Film Festival, at least since the early 2010s. That has only continued as the festival reliably gives us the world premieres of 2-3 Best Picture nominees per year now that Alberto Barbera has tended to favor more American productions in recent years, like “Joker” and “Dune.” All of the Best Picture nominees to play at Venice have been world premieres.
Telluride Film Festival
2023: Anatomy Of A Fall, The Holdovers (WP), Poor Things & The Zone Of Interest
2022: Tár & Women Talking (WP)
2021: Belfast (WP), King Richard (WP) & The Power Of The Dog
2020: The Father & Nomadland*
2019: Ford v Ferrari (WP), Marriage Story & Parasite*
2018: The Favourite & Roma
2017: Darkest Hour (WP), Lady Bird (WP) & The Shape Of Water*
2016: Arrival, Manchester By The Sea, Moonlight* (WP) & La La Land
2015: Room (WP) & Spotlight*
2014: Birdman* & The Imitation Game (WP)
2013: 12 Years A Slave* (WP), Gravity & Nebraska
2012: Amour & Argo* (WP)
2011: The Artist* & The Descendants (WP)
2010: 127 Hours (WP), Black Swan & The King’s Speech* (WP)
2009: An Education & Up In The Air (WP)
Consistency. If there’s any film festival that has been consistent in terms of winners and nominees, it’s Telluride. With a legendary run still talked about to this day, the tiny Colorado-based film festival was the home of the Best Picture winner from 2010-2017, with winners popping up again in 2019 and 2020. They may be in their longest drought yet in the last 15 years, but the festival still reliably produces anywhere from 2 to 4 Best Picture nominees per year.
Toronto International Film Festival
2023: American Fiction (WP), Anatomy Of A Fall, The Holdovers & The Zone Of Interest
2022: All Quiet On The Western Front (WP), The Banshees Of Inisherin, The Fabelmans (WP), Triangle Of Sadness & Women Talking
2021: Belfast, Drive My Car, Dune & The Power Of The Dog
2020: The Father, Nomadland* & Sound Of Metal (WP the year before)
2019: Ford v Ferrari, Jojo Rabbit (WP), Joker, Marriage Story & Parasite*
2018: Green Book* (WP), Roma & A Star Is Born
2017: Call Me By Your Name, Darkest Hour, Dunkirk, Lady Bird, The Shape Of Water* & Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
2016: Arrival, La La Land, Lion (WP), Manchester By The Sea & Moonlight*
2015: Brooklyn, The Martian (WP), Room & Spotlight*
2014: The Imitation Game, The Theory Of Everything (WP) & Whiplash
2013: 12 Years A Slave*, Dallas Buyers Club (WP), Gravity & Philomena
2012: Amour, Argo* & Silver Linings Playbook (WP)
2011: The Artist*, The Descendants & Moneyball (WP)
2010: 127 Hours, Black Swan & The King’s Speech*
2009: An Education, The Hurt Locker*, Precious, A Serious Man (WP) & Up In The Air
Toronto’s programming is insane. With over 200 films playing, it’s not surprising to see them host the most Best Picture nominees each year and overall across all the film festivals. Some years, like 2017, can have up to 6, while the lowest is 3. Unlike Telluride, they may not always be home to the Best Picture winner itself, but you can be sure there will be at least one world premiere to emerge from Toronto, which will eventually go on to score a Best Picture nomination. One extra thing to take note of is that their People’s Choice Award winners, since 2009, have been nominated for Best Picture 14 out of 15 years, with 2011’s “Where Do We Go Now?” being the outlier. This strongly indicates how the Best Picture race will be shaped, as films from Sundance, Cannes, Venice, and Telluride, along with a ton of world premieres, all screen here.
New York Film Festival
2023: Anatomy Of A Fall, Maestro, Poor Things & The Zone Of Interest
2022: Tár, Triangle Of Sadness & Women Talking
2021: Drive My Car, Dune & The Power Of The Dog
2020: Nomadland*
2019: The Irishman (WP), Joker, Marriage Story & Parasite*
2018: The Favourite & Roma
2017: Call Me By Your Name & Lady Bird
2016: Manchester By The Sea & Moonlight*
2015: Bridge Of Spies (WP) & Brooklyn
2014: Birdman* & Whiplash
2013: 12 Years A Slave*, Captain Phillips (WP), Her (WP) & Nebraska
2012: Amour, Life Of Pi (WP) & Lincoln (WP)
2011: The Artist*, The Descendants & Hugo (WP)
2010: The Social Network (WP)
2009: Precious
While New York Film Festival may struggle to consistently play the eventual Best Picture Oscar winner, they’ve surprisingly been pretty consistent in hosting at least one nominee a year, sometimes as high as four. They’re certainly more highbrow than other film festivals and world premieres don’t often go on to be nominated for Best Picture as they used to be in the early 2010’s but this is still a festival to keep an eye on each year.
AFI Film Festival
2023: American Fiction & Maestro
2022: The Fabelmans & Women Talking
2021: Drive My Car, King Richard & The Power Of The Dog
2020: The Father & Sound Of Metal
2019: Marriage Story
2018: The Favourite, Green Book* & Roma
2017: Call Me By Your Name, Dunkirk & The Shape Of Water*
2016: La La Land & Lion
2015: The Big Short (WP)
2014: American Sniper (WP) & Selma (WP)
2013: Her, Nebraska & Philomena
2012: Amour, Life Of Pi, Lincoln & Silver Linings Playbook
2011: The Artist*
2010: Black Swan, The Fighter (WP) & The King’s Speech*
2009: Precious
Like New York Film Fest, AFI has also been surprisingly consistent with showing at least one eventual Best Picture nominee each year over at least 15 years. They may not produce any world premieres that go on to win Best Picture, but as the final stop for the fall film festivals, it does still have a few contenders.
So where does that leave us? Well, let’s count up how many Best Picture nominees screen at each festival, how many of them are world premieres and how many went on to win Best Picture…
Toronto International Film Festival: 60 total, 12 World Premieres, 11 Best Picture Winners
Telluride Film Festival: 39 total, 16 World Premieres, 10 Best Picture Winners
New York Film Festival: 37 total, 8 World Premieres, 6 Best Picture Winners
AFI Fest: 33 total, 4 World Premieres, 4 Best Picture Winners
Venice Film Festival: 23 total, 23 World Premieres, 5 Best Picture Winners
Cannes Film Festival: 19 total, 17 World Premieres, 2 Best Picture Winners
Sundance Film Festival: 17 total, 13 World Premieres, 1 Best Picture Winner
Berlin Film Festival: 11 total, 1 World Premiere, 0 Best Picture Winners
SXSW: 6 total, 1 World Premiere, 2 Best Picture Winners
And here are the averages based on the last 15 years of how many Best Picture nominees and winners screen at each film festival…
Toronto International Film Festival: Average of 4 per festival
Telluride Film Festival: Average of 2-3 per festival
New York Film Festival: Average of 2-3 per festival
AFI Fest: Average of 2 per festival
Venice Film Festival: Average of 1-2 per festival
Cannes Film Festival: Average of 1 per festival
Sundance Film Festival: Average of 1 per festival
Berlin Film Festival: Average of less than 1 per festival
SXSW: Average of less than 1 per festival
The three festivals you can bet will give us at least one world premiere Best Picture nominee each year are Cannes, Venice, and Telluride, with Toronto and Sundance not too far behind. However, even more consistent than all of these festivals are the films that are released each year without a film festival world premiere. Take a look below at how many Best Picture nominees went straight to theaters without the launch of one of the major film festivals.
No Film Festival World Premiere
2023: Barbie & Oppenheimer*
2022: Avatar: The Way Of Water & Top Gun: Maverick
2021: Don’t Look Up, Licorice Pizza, Nightmare Alley & West Side Story
2020: Mank & The Trial Of The Chicago 7
2019: Little Women & 1917
2018: Black Panther, Bohemian Rhapsody & Vice
2017: Dunkirk, Phantom Thread & The Post
2016: Fences & Hidden Figures
2015: Mad Max: Fury Road & The Revenant
2014: None
2013: American Hustle & The Wolf Of Wall Street
2012: Django Unchained, Les Miserables & Zero Dark Thirty
2011: Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close, The Help & War Horse
2010: The Fighter, Inception, Toy Story 3 & True Grit
2009: Avatar, The Blind Side & District 9
As you can see, films that forgo a film festival launch and go straight to theatrical tend to produce at least 2 Best Picture nominees per year, with only one eventual winner in the last 15 years with last year’s “Oppenheimer.”
If we take a look at the Next Best Picture team’s current Best Picture predictions the current ten predicted films are…
Anora (Cannes WP)
Blitz (London Film Festival WP)
A Complete Unknown (No Film Festival)
Conclave (Telluride WP)
Dune: Part Two (No Film Festival)
Emilia Perez (Cannes WP)
Gladiator II (No Film Festival)
Nickel Boys (Telluride WP)
Queer (Venice WP)
Sing Sing (TIFF WP)
And there are additional mentions for…
The Brutalist (Venice WP)
Joker: Folie à Deux (Venice WP)
Maria (Venice WP)
Nosferatu (No Film Festival)
The Piano Lesson (Telluride WP)
A Real Pain (Sundance WP)
Saturday Night (Telluride WP)
As you can see, there is a good mixture currently of what we can typically expect the film festivals to provide to the Best Picture race, with a healthy amount of films releasing without a film festival world premiere. There may even be some titles that emerge from Toronto that are not even included on this list (Did anyone predict “American Fiction” or “Green Book” this early this time last year? I don’t think so). The thing is, for all of this data, you should still expect the unexpected. Contenders will rise, and contenders will fall. These next two weeks will determine that and shape the Best Picture race in a significant way. If I had to take a stab at the race, given the information we know as of right now, I’d be willing to say the Best Picture race will look like this…
Anora (Cannes WP)
Blitz (London Film Festival WP)
The Brutalist (Venice WP)
A Complete Unknown (No Film Festival)
Conclave (Telluride WP)
Dune: Part Two (No Film Festival)
Emilia Perez (Cannes WP)
Gladiator II (No Film Festival)
Nickel Boys (Telluride WP)
Sing Sing (TIFF WP)
What do you think will be nominated for Best Picture this year? Where do you think the nominees will come from this year? How many of this year’s Best Picture nominees have already been seen? Please share your thoughts in the comments section below or on our X account and be sure to check out our latest Oscar predictions here.
