Here are the NBP staff predictions for Best Original Screenplay. For an overview of all awards predictions, visit our Oscar Predictions page.
Click each heading to view individual staff rankings, or search/sort by the drop-downs below:
NBP Staff Picks
| Matt Neglia | ||
|---|---|---|
| 1 | IT WAS JUST AN ACCIDENT (Jafar Panahi, Nader Saeivar, Shadmehr Rastin, Mehdi Mahmoudian) | |
| 2 | SINNERS (Ryan Coogler) | |
| 3 | MARTY SUPREME (Ronald Bronstein & Josh Safdie) | |
| 4 | SENTIMENTAL VALUE (Joachim Trier & Eskil Vogt) | |
| 5 | SORRY BABY (Eva Victor) | |
| 6 | JAY KELLY (Noah Baumbach & Emily Mortimer) | |
| 7 | BLUE MOON (Robert Kaplow) | |
| 8 | WEAPONS (Zach Cregger) | |
| 9 | THE SECRET AGENT (Kleber Mendonça Filho) | NEW |
| 10 | IS THIS THING ON? (Will Arnett, Mark Chappell, Bradley Cooper, John Bishop) | ▼ 1 |
Last Updated:
| 12/30/2025 4:05 PM |
| Dan Bayer | ||
|---|---|---|
| 1 | IT WAS JUST AN ACCIDENT (Jafar Panahi, Nader Saeivar, Shadmehr Rastin, Mehdi Mahmoudian) | ▲ 2 |
| 2 | SINNERS (Ryan Coogler) | ▲ 3 |
| 3 | SENTIMENTAL VALUE (Joachim Trier & Eskil Vogt) | ▼ 2 |
| 4 | MARTY SUPREME (Ronald Bronstein & Josh Safdie) | |
| 5 | JAY KELLY (Noah Baumbach & Emily Mortimer) | ▼ 3 |
| 6 | SORRY BABY (Eva Victor) | |
| 7 | BLUE MOON (Robert Kaplow) | |
| 8 | RENTAL FAMILY (Stephen Blahut & Hikari) | |
| 9 | IS THIS THING ON? (Will Arnett, Mark Chappell, Bradley Cooper, John Bishop) | NEW |
| 10 | THE TESTAMENT OF ANN LEE (Brady Corbet & Mona Fastvold) |
Last Updated:
| 11/4/2025 11:05 PM |
| Alyssa Christian | ||
|---|---|---|
| 1 | SINNERS (Ryan Coogler) | |
| 2 | IT WAS JUST AN ACCIDENT (Jafar Panahi, Nader Saeivar, Shadmehr Rastin, Mehdi Mahmoudian) | |
| 3 | MARTY SUPREME (Ronald Bronstein & Josh Safdie) | |
| 4 | SENTIMENTAL VALUE (Joachim Trier & Eskil Vogt) | |
| 5 | SORRY BABY (Eva Victor) | |
| 6 | WEAPONS (Zach Cregger) | |
| 7 | IF I HAD LEGS I'D KICK YOU (Mary Bronstein) | ▲ 2 |
| 8 | BLUE MOON (Robert Kaplow) | |
| 9 | JAY KELLY (Noah Baumbach & Emily Mortimer) | ▼ 2 |
| 10 | THE SECRET AGENT (Kleber Mendonça Filho) |
Last Updated:
| 12/26/2025 1:35 PM |
| Sara Clements | ||
|---|---|---|
| 1 | SINNERS (Ryan Coogler) | ▲ 1 |
| 2 | IT WAS JUST AN ACCIDENT (Jafar Panahi, Nader Saeivar, Shadmehr Rastin, Mehdi Mahmoudian) | ▼ 1 |
| 3 | MARTY SUPREME (Ronald Bronstein & Josh Safdie) | |
| 4 | SENTIMENTAL VALUE (Joachim Trier & Eskil Vogt) | |
| 5 | SORRY BABY (Eva Victor) | |
| 6 | JAY KELLY (Noah Baumbach & Emily Mortimer) | |
| 7 | BLUE MOON (Robert Kaplow) | |
| 8 | WEAPONS (Zach Cregger) | |
| 9 | THE SECRET AGENT (Kleber Mendonça Filho) | |
| 10 | IS THIS THING ON? (Will Arnett, Mark Chappell, Bradley Cooper, John Bishop) |
Last Updated:
| 1/5/2026 12:06 AM |
| Nadia Dalimonte | ||
|---|---|---|
| 1 | SINNERS (Ryan Coogler) | |
| 2 | IT WAS JUST AN ACCIDENT (Jafar Panahi, Nader Saeivar, Shadmehr Rastin, Mehdi Mahmoudian) | |
| 3 | MARTY SUPREME (Ronald Bronstein & Josh Safdie) | |
| 4 | SENTIMENTAL VALUE (Joachim Trier & Eskil Vogt) | |
| 5 | THE SECRET AGENT (Kleber Mendonça Filho) | ▲ 3 |
| 6 | SORRY BABY (Eva Victor) | ▼ 1 |
| 7 | BLUE MOON (Robert Kaplow) | ▼ 1 |
| 8 | WEAPONS (Zach Cregger) | ▲ 1 |
| 9 | JAY KELLY (Noah Baumbach & Emily Mortimer) | ▼ 2 |
| 10 | SIRAT (Santiago Fillol & Oliver Laxe) | NEW |
Last Updated:
| 1/5/2026 10:20 AM |
| Cody Dericks | ||
|---|---|---|
| 1 | IT WAS JUST AN ACCIDENT (Jafar Panahi, Nader Saeivar, Shadmehr Rastin, Mehdi Mahmoudian) | |
| 2 | SINNERS (Ryan Coogler) | |
| 3 | SENTIMENTAL VALUE (Joachim Trier & Eskil Vogt) | |
| 4 | MARTY SUPREME (Ronald Bronstein & Josh Safdie) | |
| 5 | SORRY BABY (Eva Victor) | |
| 6 | THE SECRET AGENT (Kleber Mendonça Filho) | ▲ 2 |
| 7 | WEAPONS (Zach Cregger) | |
| 8 | JAY KELLY (Noah Baumbach & Emily Mortimer) | ▼ 2 |
| 9 | BLUE MOON (Robert Kaplow) | |
| 10 | SIRAT (Santiago Fillol & Oliver Laxe) | NEW |
Last Updated:
| 12/23/2025 4:50 PM |
| Daniel Howat | ||
|---|---|---|
| 1 | IT WAS JUST AN ACCIDENT (Jafar Panahi, Nader Saeivar, Shadmehr Rastin, Mehdi Mahmoudian) | |
| 2 | SINNERS (Ryan Coogler) | |
| 3 | SENTIMENTAL VALUE (Joachim Trier & Eskil Vogt) | |
| 4 | MARTY SUPREME (Ronald Bronstein & Josh Safdie) | |
| 5 | JAY KELLY (Noah Baumbach & Emily Mortimer) | |
| 6 | BLUE MOON (Robert Kaplow) | |
| 7 | THE SECRET AGENT (Kleber Mendonça Filho) | ▲ 1 |
| 8 | SORRY BABY (Eva Victor) | ▲ 1 |
| 9 | IS THIS THING ON? (Will Arnett, Mark Chappell, Bradley Cooper, John Bishop) | ▼ 2 |
| 10 | WEAPONS (Zach Cregger) | NEW |
Last Updated:
| 12/10/2025 9:35 PM |
| Megan Lachinski | ||
|---|---|---|
| 1 | IT WAS JUST AN ACCIDENT (Jafar Panahi, Nader Saeivar, Shadmehr Rastin, Mehdi Mahmoudian) | |
| 2 | SINNERS (Ryan Coogler) | |
| 3 | MARTY SUPREME (Ronald Bronstein & Josh Safdie) | |
| 4 | SENTIMENTAL VALUE (Joachim Trier & Eskil Vogt) | |
| 5 | SORRY BABY (Eva Victor) | |
| 6 | THE SECRET AGENT (Kleber Mendonça Filho) | ▲ 2 |
| 7 | BLUE MOON (Robert Kaplow) | |
| 8 | JAY KELLY (Noah Baumbach & Emily Mortimer) | ▼ 2 |
| 9 | THE TESTAMENT OF ANN LEE (Brady Corbet & Mona Fastvold) | |
| 10 | IS THIS THING ON? (Will Arnett, Mark Chappell, Bradley Cooper, John Bishop) |
Last Updated:
| 12/7/2025 11:51 PM |
| Giovanni Lago | ||
|---|---|---|
| 1 | SINNERS (Ryan Coogler) | |
| 2 | IT WAS JUST AN ACCIDENT (Jafar Panahi, Nader Saeivar, Shadmehr Rastin, Mehdi Mahmoudian) | |
| 3 | MARTY SUPREME (Ronald Bronstein & Josh Safdie) | ▲ 1 |
| 4 | SENTIMENTAL VALUE (Joachim Trier & Eskil Vogt) | ▼ 1 |
| 5 | JAY KELLY (Noah Baumbach & Emily Mortimer) | |
| 6 | THE SECRET AGENT (Kleber Mendonça Filho) | ▲ 1 |
| 7 | THE TESTAMENT OF ANN LEE (Brady Corbet & Mona Fastvold) | ▼ 1 |
| 8 | IS THIS THING ON? (Will Arnett, Mark Chappell, Bradley Cooper, John Bishop) | |
| 9 | BLUE MOON (Robert Kaplow) | |
| 10 | ROOFMAN (Derek Cianfrance & Kirt Gunn) |
Last Updated:
| 12/7/2025 11:35 AM |
| Will Mavity | ||
|---|---|---|
| 1 | IT WAS JUST AN ACCIDENT (Jafar Panahi, Nader Saeivar, Shadmehr Rastin, Mehdi Mahmoudian) | |
| 2 | SINNERS (Ryan Coogler) | |
| 3 | SENTIMENTAL VALUE (Joachim Trier & Eskil Vogt) | |
| 4 | MARTY SUPREME (Ronald Bronstein & Josh Safdie) | |
| 5 | SORRY BABY (Eva Victor) | |
| 6 | JAY KELLY (Noah Baumbach & Emily Mortimer) | |
| 7 | THE SECRET AGENT (Kleber Mendonça Filho) | |
| 8 | WEAPONS (Zach Cregger) | ▲ 1 |
| 9 | BLUE MOON (Robert Kaplow) | ▼ 1 |
| 10 | IS THIS THING ON? (Will Arnett, Mark Chappell, Bradley Cooper, John Bishop) |
Last Updated:
| 1/4/2026 10:21 PM |
| Tom O'Brien | ||
|---|---|---|
| 1 | IT WAS JUST AN ACCIDENT (Jafar Panahi, Nader Saeivar, Shadmehr Rastin, Mehdi Mahmoudian) | |
| 2 | SINNERS (Ryan Coogler) | |
| 3 | SENTIMENTAL VALUE (Joachim Trier & Eskil Vogt) | |
| 4 | SORRY BABY (Eva Victor) | ▲ 4 |
| 5 | MARTY SUPREME (Ronald Bronstein & Josh Safdie) | |
| 6 | JAY KELLY (Noah Baumbach & Emily Mortimer) | ▼ 2 |
| 7 | BLUE MOON (Robert Kaplow) | ▼ 1 |
| 8 | IS THIS THING ON? (Will Arnett, Mark Chappell, Bradley Cooper, John Bishop) | ▼ 1 |
| 9 | THE SECRET AGENT (Kleber Mendonça Filho) | |
| 10 | THE TESTAMENT OF ANN LEE (Brady Corbet & Mona Fastvold) |
Last Updated:
| 12/24/2025 1:35 PM |
| Josh Parham | ||
|---|---|---|
| 1 | IT WAS JUST AN ACCIDENT (Jafar Panahi, Nader Saeivar, Shadmehr Rastin, Mehdi Mahmoudian) | |
| 2 | SINNERS (Ryan Coogler) | |
| 3 | SENTIMENTAL VALUE (Joachim Trier & Eskil Vogt) | |
| 4 | MARTY SUPREME (Ronald Bronstein & Josh Safdie) | |
| 5 | SORRY BABY (Eva Victor) | |
| 6 | THE SECRET AGENT (Kleber Mendonça Filho) | |
| 7 | WEAPONS (Zach Cregger) | |
| 8 | BLUE MOON (Robert Kaplow) | ▲ 1 |
| 9 | JAY KELLY (Noah Baumbach & Emily Mortimer) | ▼ 1 |
| 10 | SIRAT (Santiago Fillol & Oliver Laxe) |
Last Updated:
| 1/5/2026 4:20 PM |
| Ema Sasic | ||
|---|---|---|
| 1 | SINNERS (Ryan Coogler) | |
| 2 | IT WAS JUST AN ACCIDENT (Jafar Panahi, Nader Saeivar, Shadmehr Rastin, Mehdi Mahmoudian) | |
| 3 | SENTIMENTAL VALUE (Joachim Trier & Eskil Vogt) | |
| 4 | MARTY SUPREME (Ronald Bronstein & Josh Safdie) | |
| 5 | SORRY BABY (Eva Victor) | ▲ 1 |
| 6 | JAY KELLY (Noah Baumbach & Emily Mortimer) | ▼ 1 |
| 7 | THE SECRET AGENT (Kleber Mendonça Filho) | |
| 8 | A HOUSE OF DYNAMITE (Noah Oppenheim) | |
| 9 | IS THIS THING ON? (Will Arnett, Mark Chappell, Bradley Cooper, John Bishop) | |
| 10 | RENTAL FAMILY (Stephen Blahut & Hikari) |
Last Updated:
| 12/20/2025 7:35 PM |