Here are the NBP staff predictions for Best Original Screenplay. For an overview of all awards predictions, visit our Oscar Predictions page.
Click each heading to view individual staff rankings, or search/sort by the drop-downs below:
NBP Staff Picks
| Matt Neglia | ||
|---|---|---|
| 1 | SINNERS (Ryan Coogler) | |
| 2 | SENTIMENTAL VALUE (Joachim Trier & Eskil Vogt) | |
| 3 | MARTY SUPREME (Ronald Bronstein & Josh Safdie) | |
| 4 | IT WAS JUST AN ACCIDENT (Jafar Panahi, Nader Saeivar, Shadmehr Rastin, Mehdi Mahmoudian) | ▲ 2 |
| 5 | JAY KELLY (Noah Baumbach & Emily Mortimer) | |
| 6 | IS THIS THING ON? (Will Arnett, Mark Chappell, Bradley Cooper, John Bishop) | ▼ 2 |
| 7 | BLUE MOON (Robert Kaplow) | |
| 8 | A HOUSE OF DYNAMITE (Noah Oppenheim) | |
| 9 | SORRY BABY (Eva Victor) | |
| 10 | RENTAL FAMILY (Stephen Blahut & Hikari) |
Last Updated:
| 10/7/2025 2:50 AM |
| Dan Bayer | ||
|---|---|---|
| 1 | SENTIMENTAL VALUE (Joachim Trier & Eskil Vogt) | |
| 2 | JAY KELLY (Noah Baumbach & Emily Mortimer) | |
| 3 | IT WAS JUST AN ACCIDENT (Jafar Panahi, Nader Saeivar, Shadmehr Rastin, Mehdi Mahmoudian) | |
| 4 | MARTY SUPREME (Ronald Bronstein & Josh Safdie) | |
| 5 | SINNERS (Ryan Coogler) | |
| 6 | A HOUSE OF DYNAMITE (Noah Oppenheim) | |
| 7 | SORRY BABY (Eva Victor) | |
| 8 | RENTAL FAMILY (Stephen Blahut & Hikari) | |
| 9 | AFTER THE HUNT (Nora Garrett) | NEW |
| 10 | THE TESTAMENT OF ANN LEE (Brady Corbet & Mona Fastvold) |
Last Updated:
| 9/17/2025 1:50 PM |
| Alyssa Christian | ||
|---|---|---|
| 1 | SINNERS (Ryan Coogler) | |
| 2 | MARTY SUPREME (Ronald Bronstein & Josh Safdie) | |
| 3 | SENTIMENTAL VALUE (Joachim Trier & Eskil Vogt) | |
| 4 | JAY KELLY (Noah Baumbach & Emily Mortimer) | |
| 5 | IT WAS JUST AN ACCIDENT (Jafar Panahi, Nader Saeivar, Shadmehr Rastin, Mehdi Mahmoudian) | |
| 6 | BLUE MOON (Robert Kaplow) | |
| 7 | IS THIS THING ON? (Will Arnett, Mark Chappell, Bradley Cooper, John Bishop) | |
| 8 | SORRY BABY (Eva Victor) | |
| 9 | THE SECRET AGENT (Kleber Mendonça Filho) | |
| 10 | RENTAL FAMILY (Stephen Blahut & Hikari) | NEW |
Last Updated:
| 10/7/2025 11:35 AM |
| Sara Clements | ||
|---|---|---|
| 1 | SINNERS (Ryan Coogler) | |
| 2 | SENTIMENTAL VALUE (Joachim Trier & Eskil Vogt) | |
| 3 | MARTY SUPREME (Ronald Bronstein & Josh Safdie) | ▲ 3 |
| 4 | IT WAS JUST AN ACCIDENT (Jafar Panahi, Nader Saeivar, Shadmehr Rastin, Mehdi Mahmoudian) | |
| 5 | JAY KELLY (Noah Baumbach & Emily Mortimer) | ▼ 2 |
| 6 | IS THIS THING ON? (Will Arnett, Mark Chappell, Bradley Cooper, John Bishop) | ▼ 1 |
| 7 | BLUE MOON (Robert Kaplow) | |
| 8 | A HOUSE OF DYNAMITE (Noah Oppenheim) | NEW |
| 9 | SORRY BABY (Eva Victor) | ▼ 1 |
| 10 | RENTAL FAMILY (Stephen Blahut & Hikari) | ▼ 1 |
Last Updated:
| 10/8/2025 10:20 PM |
| Nadia Dalimonte | ||
|---|---|---|
| 1 | SINNERS (Ryan Coogler) | ▲ 1 |
| 2 | SENTIMENTAL VALUE (Joachim Trier & Eskil Vogt) | ▲ 1 |
| 3 | IT WAS JUST AN ACCIDENT (Jafar Panahi, Nader Saeivar, Shadmehr Rastin, Mehdi Mahmoudian) | ▲ 3 |
| 4 | MARTY SUPREME (Ronald Bronstein & Josh Safdie) | |
| 5 | JAY KELLY (Noah Baumbach & Emily Mortimer) | ▼ 4 |
| 6 | SORRY BABY (Eva Victor) | ▼ 1 |
| 7 | A HOUSE OF DYNAMITE (Noah Oppenheim) | |
| 8 | BLUE MOON (Robert Kaplow) | NEW |
| 9 | AFTER THE HUNT (Nora Garrett) | |
| 10 | RENTAL FAMILY (Stephen Blahut & Hikari) | ▼ 2 |
Last Updated:
| 9/19/2025 1:05 PM |
| Cody Dericks | ||
|---|---|---|
| 1 | SENTIMENTAL VALUE (Joachim Trier & Eskil Vogt) | |
| 2 | SINNERS (Ryan Coogler) | ▲ 1 |
| 3 | IT WAS JUST AN ACCIDENT (Jafar Panahi, Nader Saeivar, Shadmehr Rastin, Mehdi Mahmoudian) | ▼ 1 |
| 4 | MARTY SUPREME (Ronald Bronstein & Josh Safdie) | ▲ 1 |
| 5 | JAY KELLY (Noah Baumbach & Emily Mortimer) | ▼ 1 |
| 6 | THE SECRET AGENT (Kleber Mendonça Filho) | |
| 7 | BLUE MOON (Robert Kaplow) | |
| 8 | SORRY BABY (Eva Victor) | |
| 9 | WEAPONS (Zach Cregger) | |
| 10 | A HOUSE OF DYNAMITE (Noah Oppenheim) |
Last Updated:
| 10/7/2025 11:51 AM |
| Daniel Howat | ||
|---|---|---|
| 1 | SINNERS (Ryan Coogler) | |
| 2 | SENTIMENTAL VALUE (Joachim Trier & Eskil Vogt) | |
| 3 | MARTY SUPREME (Ronald Bronstein & Josh Safdie) | ▲ 4 |
| 4 | IT WAS JUST AN ACCIDENT (Jafar Panahi, Nader Saeivar, Shadmehr Rastin, Mehdi Mahmoudian) | |
| 5 | JAY KELLY (Noah Baumbach & Emily Mortimer) | ▼ 2 |
| 6 | BLUE MOON (Robert Kaplow) | |
| 7 | SORRY BABY (Eva Victor) | ▼ 2 |
| 8 | THE SECRET AGENT (Kleber Mendonça Filho) | ▲ 1 |
| 9 | RENTAL FAMILY (Stephen Blahut & Hikari) | NEW |
| 10 | THE TESTAMENT OF ANN LEE (Brady Corbet & Mona Fastvold) | NEW |
Last Updated:
| 10/7/2025 12:50 AM |
| Megan Lachinski | ||
|---|---|---|
| 1 | THE TESTAMENT OF ANN LEE (Brady Corbet & Mona Fastvold) | |
| 2 | SINNERS (Ryan Coogler) | |
| 3 | RENTAL FAMILY (Stephen Blahut & Hikari) | |
| 4 | MARTY SUPREME (Ronald Bronstein & Josh Safdie) | |
| 5 | SENTIMENTAL VALUE (Joachim Trier & Eskil Vogt) | |
| 6 | SORRY BABY (Eva Victor) | |
| 7 | IT WAS JUST AN ACCIDENT (Jafar Panahi, Nader Saeivar, Shadmehr Rastin, Mehdi Mahmoudian) | |
| 8 | THE SECRET AGENT (Kleber Mendonça Filho) | |
| 9 | AFTER THE HUNT (Nora Garrett) | |
| 10 | JAY KELLY (Noah Baumbach & Emily Mortimer) | NEW |
Last Updated:
| 9/28/2025 10:21 AM |
| Giovanni Lago | ||
|---|---|---|
| 1 | SINNERS (Ryan Coogler) | |
| 2 | MARTY SUPREME (Ronald Bronstein & Josh Safdie) | |
| 3 | SENTIMENTAL VALUE (Joachim Trier & Eskil Vogt) | |
| 4 | IT WAS JUST AN ACCIDENT (Jafar Panahi, Nader Saeivar, Shadmehr Rastin, Mehdi Mahmoudian) | ▲ 1 |
| 5 | JAY KELLY (Noah Baumbach & Emily Mortimer) | ▼ 1 |
| 6 | IS THIS THING ON? (Will Arnett, Mark Chappell, Bradley Cooper, John Bishop) | NEW |
| 7 | BLUE MOON (Robert Kaplow) | NEW |
| 8 | THE TESTAMENT OF ANN LEE (Brady Corbet & Mona Fastvold) | ▲ 2 |
| 9 | THE SECRET AGENT (Kleber Mendonça Filho) | NEW |
| 10 | ROOFMAN (Derek Cianfrance & Kirt Gunn) | NEW |
Last Updated:
| 10/9/2025 1:21 PM |
| Will Mavity | ||
|---|---|---|
| 1 | SINNERS (Ryan Coogler) | ▲ 3 |
| 2 | MARTY SUPREME (Ronald Bronstein & Josh Safdie) | |
| 3 | SENTIMENTAL VALUE (Joachim Trier & Eskil Vogt) | ▼ 2 |
| 4 | IT WAS JUST AN ACCIDENT (Jafar Panahi, Nader Saeivar, Shadmehr Rastin, Mehdi Mahmoudian) | ▼ 1 |
| 5 | JAY KELLY (Noah Baumbach & Emily Mortimer) | |
| 6 | BLUE MOON (Robert Kaplow) | |
| 7 | THE SECRET AGENT (Kleber Mendonça Filho) | |
| 8 | WEAPONS (Zach Cregger) | |
| 9 | A HOUSE OF DYNAMITE (Noah Oppenheim) | |
| 10 | RENTAL FAMILY (Stephen Blahut & Hikari) |
Last Updated:
| 10/7/2025 2:35 PM |
| Tom O'Brien | ||
|---|---|---|
| 1 | SINNERS (Ryan Coogler) | |
| 2 | SENTIMENTAL VALUE (Joachim Trier & Eskil Vogt) | |
| 3 | JAY KELLY (Noah Baumbach & Emily Mortimer) | ▲ 2 |
| 4 | IT WAS JUST AN ACCIDENT (Jafar Panahi, Nader Saeivar, Shadmehr Rastin, Mehdi Mahmoudian) | |
| 5 | MARTY SUPREME (Ronald Bronstein & Josh Safdie) | ▼ 2 |
| 6 | BLUE MOON (Robert Kaplow) | NEW |
| 7 | IS THIS THING ON? (Will Arnett, Mark Chappell, Bradley Cooper, John Bishop) | NEW |
| 8 | SORRY BABY (Eva Victor) | |
| 9 | A HOUSE OF DYNAMITE (Noah Oppenheim) | ▼ 3 |
| 10 | THE TESTAMENT OF ANN LEE (Brady Corbet & Mona Fastvold) |
Last Updated:
| 10/4/2025 3:05 PM |
| Josh Parham | ||
|---|---|---|
| 1 | SINNERS (Ryan Coogler) | ▲ 1 |
| 2 | SENTIMENTAL VALUE (Joachim Trier & Eskil Vogt) | ▼ 1 |
| 3 | IT WAS JUST AN ACCIDENT (Jafar Panahi, Nader Saeivar, Shadmehr Rastin, Mehdi Mahmoudian) | ▲ 1 |
| 4 | JAY KELLY (Noah Baumbach & Emily Mortimer) | ▼ 1 |
| 5 | MARTY SUPREME (Ronald Bronstein & Josh Safdie) | ▲ 1 |
| 6 | SORRY BABY (Eva Victor) | ▲ 1 |
| 7 | WEAPONS (Zach Cregger) | ▲ 1 |
| 8 | THE SECRET AGENT (Kleber Mendonça Filho) | NEW |
| 9 | A HOUSE OF DYNAMITE (Noah Oppenheim) | ▲ 1 |
| 10 | FATHER MOTHER SISTER BROTHER (Jim Jarmusch) | ▼ 1 |
Last Updated:
| 9/17/2025 4:51 PM |
| Joselyn Safadi | ||
|---|---|---|
| 1 | SINNERS (Ryan Coogler) | |
| 2 | AFTER THE HUNT (Nora Garrett) | |
| 3 | MARTY SUPREME (Ronald Bronstein & Josh Safdie) | |
| 4 | SENTIMENTAL VALUE (Joachim Trier & Eskil Vogt) | |
| 5 | THE RIVALS OF AMZIAH KING (James Montague & Andrew Patterson) | |
| 6 | JAY KELLY (Noah Baumbach & Emily Mortimer) | |
| 7 | SORRY BABY (Eva Victor) | |
| 8 | THE TESTAMENT OF ANN LEE (Brady Corbet & Mona Fastvold) | |
| 9 | THE SECRET AGENT (Kleber Mendonça Filho) | |
| 10 | A HOUSE OF DYNAMITE (Noah Oppenheim) | NEW |
Last Updated:
| 8/26/2025 9:21 PM |
| Ema Sasic | ||
|---|---|---|
| 1 | SINNERS (Ryan Coogler) | |
| 2 | SENTIMENTAL VALUE (Joachim Trier & Eskil Vogt) | |
| 3 | JAY KELLY (Noah Baumbach & Emily Mortimer) | |
| 4 | MARTY SUPREME (Ronald Bronstein & Josh Safdie) | |
| 5 | IT WAS JUST AN ACCIDENT (Jafar Panahi, Nader Saeivar, Shadmehr Rastin, Mehdi Mahmoudian) | ▲ 1 |
| 6 | SORRY BABY (Eva Victor) | ▲ 4 |
| 7 | BLUE MOON (Robert Kaplow) | NEW |
| 8 | A HOUSE OF DYNAMITE (Noah Oppenheim) | NEW |
| 9 | IS THIS THING ON? (Will Arnett, Mark Chappell, Bradley Cooper, John Bishop) | NEW |
| 10 | RENTAL FAMILY (Stephen Blahut & Hikari) | ▼ 5 |
Last Updated:
| 10/1/2025 11:51 AM |
