Here are the NBP staff predictions for Best Original Screenplay. For an overview of all awards predictions, visit our Oscar Predictions page.
Click each heading to view individual staff rankings, or search/sort by the drop-downs below:
NBP Staff Picks
| Matt Neglia | ||
|---|---|---|
| 1 | IT WAS JUST AN ACCIDENT (Jafar Panahi, Nader Saeivar, Shadmehr Rastin, Mehdi Mahmoudian) | ▲ 1 |
| 2 | SINNERS (Ryan Coogler) | ▼ 1 |
| 3 | SENTIMENTAL VALUE (Joachim Trier & Eskil Vogt) | |
| 4 | MARTY SUPREME (Ronald Bronstein & Josh Safdie) | |
| 5 | JAY KELLY (Noah Baumbach & Emily Mortimer) | |
| 6 | IS THIS THING ON? (Will Arnett, Mark Chappell, Bradley Cooper, John Bishop) | |
| 7 | BLUE MOON (Robert Kaplow) | |
| 8 | SORRY BABY (Eva Victor) | |
| 9 | A HOUSE OF DYNAMITE (Noah Oppenheim) | |
| 10 | RENTAL FAMILY (Stephen Blahut & Hikari) |
Last Updated:
| 11/4/2025 11:05 PM |
| Dan Bayer | ||
|---|---|---|
| 1 | IT WAS JUST AN ACCIDENT (Jafar Panahi, Nader Saeivar, Shadmehr Rastin, Mehdi Mahmoudian) | ▲ 2 |
| 2 | SINNERS (Ryan Coogler) | ▲ 3 |
| 3 | SENTIMENTAL VALUE (Joachim Trier & Eskil Vogt) | ▼ 2 |
| 4 | MARTY SUPREME (Ronald Bronstein & Josh Safdie) | |
| 5 | JAY KELLY (Noah Baumbach & Emily Mortimer) | ▼ 3 |
| 6 | SORRY BABY (Eva Victor) | |
| 7 | BLUE MOON (Robert Kaplow) | |
| 8 | RENTAL FAMILY (Stephen Blahut & Hikari) | |
| 9 | IS THIS THING ON? (Will Arnett, Mark Chappell, Bradley Cooper, John Bishop) | NEW |
| 10 | THE TESTAMENT OF ANN LEE (Brady Corbet & Mona Fastvold) |
Last Updated:
| 11/4/2025 11:05 PM |
| Alyssa Christian | ||
|---|---|---|
| 1 | IT WAS JUST AN ACCIDENT (Jafar Panahi, Nader Saeivar, Shadmehr Rastin, Mehdi Mahmoudian) | ▲ 1 |
| 2 | SINNERS (Ryan Coogler) | ▼ 1 |
| 3 | MARTY SUPREME (Ronald Bronstein & Josh Safdie) | |
| 4 | SENTIMENTAL VALUE (Joachim Trier & Eskil Vogt) | |
| 5 | JAY KELLY (Noah Baumbach & Emily Mortimer) | |
| 6 | SORRY BABY (Eva Victor) | ▲ 2 |
| 7 | IS THIS THING ON? (Will Arnett, Mark Chappell, Bradley Cooper, John Bishop) | |
| 8 | BLUE MOON (Robert Kaplow) | ▼ 2 |
| 9 | THE SECRET AGENT (Kleber Mendonça Filho) | |
| 10 | A HOUSE OF DYNAMITE (Noah Oppenheim) |
Last Updated:
| 11/18/2025 2:20 PM |
| Sara Clements | ||
|---|---|---|
| 1 | SINNERS (Ryan Coogler) | |
| 2 | SENTIMENTAL VALUE (Joachim Trier & Eskil Vogt) | |
| 3 | MARTY SUPREME (Ronald Bronstein & Josh Safdie) | ▲ 3 |
| 4 | IT WAS JUST AN ACCIDENT (Jafar Panahi, Nader Saeivar, Shadmehr Rastin, Mehdi Mahmoudian) | |
| 5 | JAY KELLY (Noah Baumbach & Emily Mortimer) | ▼ 2 |
| 6 | IS THIS THING ON? (Will Arnett, Mark Chappell, Bradley Cooper, John Bishop) | ▼ 1 |
| 7 | BLUE MOON (Robert Kaplow) | |
| 8 | A HOUSE OF DYNAMITE (Noah Oppenheim) | NEW |
| 9 | SORRY BABY (Eva Victor) | ▼ 1 |
| 10 | RENTAL FAMILY (Stephen Blahut & Hikari) | ▼ 1 |
Last Updated:
| 10/8/2025 10:20 PM |
| Nadia Dalimonte | ||
|---|---|---|
| 1 | SINNERS (Ryan Coogler) | |
| 2 | SENTIMENTAL VALUE (Joachim Trier & Eskil Vogt) | |
| 3 | IT WAS JUST AN ACCIDENT (Jafar Panahi, Nader Saeivar, Shadmehr Rastin, Mehdi Mahmoudian) | |
| 4 | MARTY SUPREME (Ronald Bronstein & Josh Safdie) | |
| 5 | JAY KELLY (Noah Baumbach & Emily Mortimer) | |
| 6 | SORRY BABY (Eva Victor) | |
| 7 | BLUE MOON (Robert Kaplow) | ▲ 1 |
| 8 | IS THIS THING ON? (Will Arnett, Mark Chappell, Bradley Cooper, John Bishop) | NEW |
| 9 | WEAPONS (Zach Cregger) | NEW |
| 10 | THE SECRET AGENT (Kleber Mendonça Filho) | NEW |
Last Updated:
| 10/17/2025 2:20 PM |
| Cody Dericks | ||
|---|---|---|
| 1 | IT WAS JUST AN ACCIDENT (Jafar Panahi, Nader Saeivar, Shadmehr Rastin, Mehdi Mahmoudian) | ▲ 2 |
| 2 | SENTIMENTAL VALUE (Joachim Trier & Eskil Vogt) | ▼ 1 |
| 3 | SINNERS (Ryan Coogler) | ▼ 1 |
| 4 | MARTY SUPREME (Ronald Bronstein & Josh Safdie) | |
| 5 | JAY KELLY (Noah Baumbach & Emily Mortimer) | |
| 6 | THE SECRET AGENT (Kleber Mendonça Filho) | |
| 7 | BLUE MOON (Robert Kaplow) | NEW |
| 8 | WEAPONS (Zach Cregger) | ▼ 1 |
| 9 | IS THIS THING ON? (Will Arnett, Mark Chappell, Bradley Cooper, John Bishop) | |
| 10 | SORRY BABY (Eva Victor) |
Last Updated:
| 11/9/2025 10:50 AM |
| Daniel Howat | ||
|---|---|---|
| 1 | SINNERS (Ryan Coogler) | |
| 2 | SENTIMENTAL VALUE (Joachim Trier & Eskil Vogt) | |
| 3 | MARTY SUPREME (Ronald Bronstein & Josh Safdie) | |
| 4 | IT WAS JUST AN ACCIDENT (Jafar Panahi, Nader Saeivar, Shadmehr Rastin, Mehdi Mahmoudian) | |
| 5 | JAY KELLY (Noah Baumbach & Emily Mortimer) | |
| 6 | BLUE MOON (Robert Kaplow) | |
| 7 | IS THIS THING ON? (Will Arnett, Mark Chappell, Bradley Cooper, John Bishop) | |
| 8 | THE SECRET AGENT (Kleber Mendonça Filho) | |
| 9 | SORRY BABY (Eva Victor) | NEW |
| 10 | THE TESTAMENT OF ANN LEE (Brady Corbet & Mona Fastvold) |
Last Updated:
| 11/9/2025 10:50 AM |
| Megan Lachinski | ||
|---|---|---|
| 1 | SINNERS (Ryan Coogler) | |
| 2 | IT WAS JUST AN ACCIDENT (Jafar Panahi, Nader Saeivar, Shadmehr Rastin, Mehdi Mahmoudian) | |
| 3 | MARTY SUPREME (Ronald Bronstein & Josh Safdie) | |
| 4 | SENTIMENTAL VALUE (Joachim Trier & Eskil Vogt) | |
| 5 | JAY KELLY (Noah Baumbach & Emily Mortimer) | |
| 6 | SORRY BABY (Eva Victor) | |
| 7 | BLUE MOON (Robert Kaplow) | |
| 8 | THE SECRET AGENT (Kleber Mendonça Filho) | |
| 9 | THE TESTAMENT OF ANN LEE (Brady Corbet & Mona Fastvold) | |
| 10 | IS THIS THING ON? (Will Arnett, Mark Chappell, Bradley Cooper, John Bishop) | NEW |
Last Updated:
| 11/9/2025 10:35 AM |
| Giovanni Lago | ||
|---|---|---|
| 1 | SINNERS (Ryan Coogler) | |
| 2 | MARTY SUPREME (Ronald Bronstein & Josh Safdie) | |
| 3 | SENTIMENTAL VALUE (Joachim Trier & Eskil Vogt) | |
| 4 | IT WAS JUST AN ACCIDENT (Jafar Panahi, Nader Saeivar, Shadmehr Rastin, Mehdi Mahmoudian) | |
| 5 | JAY KELLY (Noah Baumbach & Emily Mortimer) | |
| 6 | THE TESTAMENT OF ANN LEE (Brady Corbet & Mona Fastvold) | ▲ 2 |
| 7 | BLUE MOON (Robert Kaplow) | ▼ 1 |
| 8 | IS THIS THING ON? (Will Arnett, Mark Chappell, Bradley Cooper, John Bishop) | ▼ 1 |
| 9 | THE SECRET AGENT (Kleber Mendonça Filho) | |
| 10 | ROOFMAN (Derek Cianfrance & Kirt Gunn) |
Last Updated:
| 11/13/2025 9:36 PM |
| Will Mavity | ||
|---|---|---|
| 1 | IT WAS JUST AN ACCIDENT (Jafar Panahi, Nader Saeivar, Shadmehr Rastin, Mehdi Mahmoudian) | ▲ 3 |
| 2 | SINNERS (Ryan Coogler) | ▼ 1 |
| 3 | SENTIMENTAL VALUE (Joachim Trier & Eskil Vogt) | |
| 4 | MARTY SUPREME (Ronald Bronstein & Josh Safdie) | ▼ 2 |
| 5 | JAY KELLY (Noah Baumbach & Emily Mortimer) | |
| 6 | WEAPONS (Zach Cregger) | ▲ 2 |
| 7 | THE SECRET AGENT (Kleber Mendonça Filho) | |
| 8 | BLUE MOON (Robert Kaplow) | ▼ 2 |
| 9 | A HOUSE OF DYNAMITE (Noah Oppenheim) | |
| 10 | RENTAL FAMILY (Stephen Blahut & Hikari) |
Last Updated:
| 11/10/2025 4:50 PM |
| Tom O'Brien | ||
|---|---|---|
| 1 | SINNERS (Ryan Coogler) | |
| 2 | IT WAS JUST AN ACCIDENT (Jafar Panahi, Nader Saeivar, Shadmehr Rastin, Mehdi Mahmoudian) | ▲ 2 |
| 3 | SENTIMENTAL VALUE (Joachim Trier & Eskil Vogt) | ▼ 1 |
| 4 | JAY KELLY (Noah Baumbach & Emily Mortimer) | ▼ 1 |
| 5 | MARTY SUPREME (Ronald Bronstein & Josh Safdie) | |
| 6 | BLUE MOON (Robert Kaplow) | |
| 7 | IS THIS THING ON? (Will Arnett, Mark Chappell, Bradley Cooper, John Bishop) | |
| 8 | SORRY BABY (Eva Victor) | |
| 9 | A HOUSE OF DYNAMITE (Noah Oppenheim) | |
| 10 | THE TESTAMENT OF ANN LEE (Brady Corbet & Mona Fastvold) |
Last Updated:
| 11/18/2025 2:05 AM |
| Josh Parham | ||
|---|---|---|
| 1 | IT WAS JUST AN ACCIDENT (Jafar Panahi, Nader Saeivar, Shadmehr Rastin, Mehdi Mahmoudian) | |
| 2 | SINNERS (Ryan Coogler) | |
| 3 | SENTIMENTAL VALUE (Joachim Trier & Eskil Vogt) | |
| 4 | JAY KELLY (Noah Baumbach & Emily Mortimer) | |
| 5 | THE SECRET AGENT (Kleber Mendonça Filho) | ▲ 2 |
| 6 | MARTY SUPREME (Ronald Bronstein & Josh Safdie) | ▼ 1 |
| 7 | BLUE MOON (Robert Kaplow) | NEW |
| 8 | WEAPONS (Zach Cregger) | ▼ 2 |
| 9 | SORRY BABY (Eva Victor) | ▼ 1 |
| 10 | IS THIS THING ON? (Will Arnett, Mark Chappell, Bradley Cooper, John Bishop) | NEW |
Last Updated:
| 11/12/2025 4:50 PM |
| Joselyn Safadi | ||
|---|---|---|
| 1 | SINNERS (Ryan Coogler) | |
| 2 | SENTIMENTAL VALUE (Joachim Trier & Eskil Vogt) | ▲ 2 |
| 3 | MARTY SUPREME (Ronald Bronstein & Josh Safdie) | |
| 4 | IT WAS JUST AN ACCIDENT (Jafar Panahi, Nader Saeivar, Shadmehr Rastin, Mehdi Mahmoudian) | NEW |
| 5 | JAY KELLY (Noah Baumbach & Emily Mortimer) | ▲ 1 |
| 6 | SORRY BABY (Eva Victor) | ▲ 1 |
| 7 | THE TESTAMENT OF ANN LEE (Brady Corbet & Mona Fastvold) | ▲ 1 |
| 8 | THE SECRET AGENT (Kleber Mendonça Filho) | ▲ 1 |
| 9 | BLUE MOON (Robert Kaplow) | NEW |
| 10 | RENTAL FAMILY (Stephen Blahut & Hikari) | NEW |
Last Updated:
| 11/5/2025 9:52 AM |
| Ema Sasic | ||
|---|---|---|
| 1 | SINNERS (Ryan Coogler) | |
| 2 | SENTIMENTAL VALUE (Joachim Trier & Eskil Vogt) | |
| 3 | JAY KELLY (Noah Baumbach & Emily Mortimer) | |
| 4 | MARTY SUPREME (Ronald Bronstein & Josh Safdie) | |
| 5 | IT WAS JUST AN ACCIDENT (Jafar Panahi, Nader Saeivar, Shadmehr Rastin, Mehdi Mahmoudian) | |
| 6 | SORRY BABY (Eva Victor) | |
| 7 | THE SECRET AGENT (Kleber Mendonça Filho) | NEW |
| 8 | A HOUSE OF DYNAMITE (Noah Oppenheim) | |
| 9 | IS THIS THING ON? (Will Arnett, Mark Chappell, Bradley Cooper, John Bishop) | |
| 10 | RENTAL FAMILY (Stephen Blahut & Hikari) |
Last Updated:
| 11/3/2025 9:21 PM |