Here are the NBP staff predictions for Best Actor. For an overview of all awards predictions, visit our Oscar Predictions page.
Click each heading to view individual staff rankings, or search/sort by the drop-downs below:
NBP Staff Picks
| Matt Neglia | ||
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Timothée Chalamet (MARTY SUPREME) | |
| 2 | Leonardo DiCaprio (ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER) | |
| 3 | Ethan Hawke (BLUE MOON) | |
| 4 | Wagner Moura (THE SECRET AGENT) | |
| 5 | Jesse Plemons (BUGONIA) | ▲ 2 |
| 6 | Michael B. Jordan (SINNERS) | |
| 7 | Joel Edgerton (TRAIN DREAMS) | ▼ 2 |
| 8 | Lee Byung-hun (NO OTHER CHOICE) | |
| 9 | Dwayne Johnson (THE SMASHING MACHINE) | |
| 10 | Jeremy Allen White (SPRINGSTEEN: DELIVER ME FROM NOWHERE) |
Last Updated:
| 1/14/2026 11:05 AM |
| Dan Bayer | ||
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Timothée Chalamet (MARTY SUPREME) | |
| 2 | Leonardo DiCaprio (ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER) | |
| 3 | Ethan Hawke (BLUE MOON) | |
| 4 | Wagner Moura (THE SECRET AGENT) | |
| 5 | Michael B. Jordan (SINNERS) | |
| 6 | Joel Edgerton (TRAIN DREAMS) | |
| 7 | Jeremy Allen White (SPRINGSTEEN: DELIVER ME FROM NOWHERE) | |
| 8 | George Clooney (JAY KELLY) | |
| 9 | Lee Byung-hun (NO OTHER CHOICE) | NEW |
| 10 | Dwayne Johnson (THE SMASHING MACHINE) |
Last Updated:
| 1/9/2026 9:20 AM |
| Alyssa Christian | ||
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Timothée Chalamet (MARTY SUPREME) | |
| 2 | Leonardo DiCaprio (ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER) | |
| 3 | Ethan Hawke (BLUE MOON) | |
| 4 | Wagner Moura (THE SECRET AGENT) | |
| 5 | Michael B. Jordan (SINNERS) | |
| 6 | Jesse Plemons (BUGONIA) | ▲ 1 |
| 7 | Joel Edgerton (TRAIN DREAMS) | ▼ 1 |
| 8 | Lee Byung-hun (NO OTHER CHOICE) | |
| 9 | George Clooney (JAY KELLY) | |
| 10 | Dwayne Johnson (THE SMASHING MACHINE) |
Last Updated:
| 1/14/2026 12:50 PM |
| Sara Clements | ||
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Timothée Chalamet (MARTY SUPREME) | |
| 2 | Leonardo DiCaprio (ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER) | |
| 3 | Ethan Hawke (BLUE MOON) | ▲ 1 |
| 4 | Wagner Moura (THE SECRET AGENT) | ▼ 1 |
| 5 | Joel Edgerton (TRAIN DREAMS) | ▲ 1 |
| 6 | Michael B. Jordan (SINNERS) | ▼ 1 |
| 7 | Jesse Plemons (BUGONIA) | |
| 8 | Lee Byung-hun (NO OTHER CHOICE) | |
| 9 | Dwayne Johnson (THE SMASHING MACHINE) | |
| 10 | Jeremy Allen White (SPRINGSTEEN: DELIVER ME FROM NOWHERE) |
Last Updated:
| 1/13/2026 11:36 AM |
| Nadia Dalimonte | ||
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Timothée Chalamet (MARTY SUPREME) | |
| 2 | Leonardo DiCaprio (ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER) | |
| 3 | Wagner Moura (THE SECRET AGENT) | ▲ 1 |
| 4 | Ethan Hawke (BLUE MOON) | ▼ 1 |
| 5 | Michael B. Jordan (SINNERS) | |
| 6 | Jesse Plemons (BUGONIA) | |
| 7 | Joel Edgerton (TRAIN DREAMS) | |
| 8 | Lee Byung-hun (NO OTHER CHOICE) | |
| 9 | Dwayne Johnson (THE SMASHING MACHINE) | |
| 10 | Jeremy Allen White (SPRINGSTEEN: DELIVER ME FROM NOWHERE) |
Last Updated:
| 1/14/2026 8:05 PM |
| Cody Dericks | ||
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Timothée Chalamet (MARTY SUPREME) | |
| 2 | Leonardo DiCaprio (ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER) | |
| 3 | Wagner Moura (THE SECRET AGENT) | ▲ 2 |
| 4 | Ethan Hawke (BLUE MOON) | ▼ 1 |
| 5 | Michael B. Jordan (SINNERS) | ▼ 1 |
| 6 | Jesse Plemons (BUGONIA) | |
| 7 | Joel Edgerton (TRAIN DREAMS) | |
| 8 | Lee Byung-hun (NO OTHER CHOICE) | |
| 9 | George Clooney (JAY KELLY) | |
| 10 | Jeremy Allen White (SPRINGSTEEN: DELIVER ME FROM NOWHERE) |
Last Updated:
| 1/12/2026 9:35 AM |
| Daniel Howat | ||
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Timothée Chalamet (MARTY SUPREME) | ▲ 1 |
| 2 | Leonardo DiCaprio (ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER) | ▼ 1 |
| 3 | Ethan Hawke (BLUE MOON) | |
| 4 | Wagner Moura (THE SECRET AGENT) | |
| 5 | Michael B. Jordan (SINNERS) | |
| 6 | Joel Edgerton (TRAIN DREAMS) | |
| 7 | Jesse Plemons (BUGONIA) | NEW |
| 8 | Lee Byung-hun (NO OTHER CHOICE) | |
| 9 | Dwayne Johnson (THE SMASHING MACHINE) | |
| 10 | George Clooney (JAY KELLY) | ▼ 3 |
Last Updated:
| 1/12/2026 12:20 AM |
| Megan Lachinski | ||
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Timothée Chalamet (MARTY SUPREME) | |
| 2 | Leonardo DiCaprio (ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER) | |
| 3 | Ethan Hawke (BLUE MOON) | |
| 4 | Joel Edgerton (TRAIN DREAMS) | |
| 5 | Wagner Moura (THE SECRET AGENT) | |
| 6 | Jesse Plemons (BUGONIA) | ▲ 1 |
| 7 | Michael B. Jordan (SINNERS) | ▼ 1 |
| 8 | George Clooney (JAY KELLY) | |
| 9 | Oscar Isaac (FRANKENSTEIN) | |
| 10 | Dwayne Johnson (THE SMASHING MACHINE) |
Last Updated:
| 1/15/2026 5:51 PM |
| Giovanni Lago | ||
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Timothée Chalamet (MARTY SUPREME) | |
| 2 | Leonardo DiCaprio (ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER) | |
| 3 | Michael B. Jordan (SINNERS) | ▲ 2 |
| 4 | Ethan Hawke (BLUE MOON) | |
| 5 | Wagner Moura (THE SECRET AGENT) | ▼ 2 |
| 6 | Jesse Plemons (BUGONIA) | ▲ 3 |
| 7 | Joel Edgerton (TRAIN DREAMS) | ▼ 1 |
| 8 | Jeremy Allen White (SPRINGSTEEN: DELIVER ME FROM NOWHERE) | |
| 9 | George Clooney (JAY KELLY) | ▼ 2 |
| 10 | Dwayne Johnson (THE SMASHING MACHINE) |
Last Updated:
| 1/11/2026 10:21 AM |
| Will Mavity | ||
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Timothée Chalamet (MARTY SUPREME) | |
| 2 | Leonardo DiCaprio (ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER) | |
| 3 | Ethan Hawke (BLUE MOON) | |
| 4 | Wagner Moura (THE SECRET AGENT) | |
| 5 | Jesse Plemons (BUGONIA) | ▲ 1 |
| 6 | Michael B. Jordan (SINNERS) | ▼ 1 |
| 7 | Joel Edgerton (TRAIN DREAMS) | |
| 8 | George Clooney (JAY KELLY) | |
| 9 | Dwayne Johnson (THE SMASHING MACHINE) | |
| 10 | Jeremy Allen White (SPRINGSTEEN: DELIVER ME FROM NOWHERE) |
Last Updated:
| 1/12/2026 1:06 AM |
| Tom O'Brien | ||
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Timothée Chalamet (MARTY SUPREME) | ▲ 2 |
| 2 | Leonardo DiCaprio (ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER) | ▼ 1 |
| 3 | Ethan Hawke (BLUE MOON) | ▼ 1 |
| 4 | Wagner Moura (THE SECRET AGENT) | |
| 5 | Michael B. Jordan (SINNERS) | ▲ 3 |
| 6 | Joel Edgerton (TRAIN DREAMS) | ▼ 1 |
| 7 | Jesse Plemons (BUGONIA) | NEW |
| 8 | Jeremy Allen White (SPRINGSTEEN: DELIVER ME FROM NOWHERE) | ▼ 2 |
| 9 | George Clooney (JAY KELLY) | ▼ 2 |
| 10 | Dwayne Johnson (THE SMASHING MACHINE) | ▼ 1 |
Last Updated:
| 1/8/2026 11:36 AM |
| Josh Parham | ||
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Timothée Chalamet (MARTY SUPREME) | |
| 2 | Leonardo DiCaprio (ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER) | |
| 3 | Wagner Moura (THE SECRET AGENT) | |
| 4 | Ethan Hawke (BLUE MOON) | |
| 5 | Michael B. Jordan (SINNERS) | |
| 6 | Jesse Plemons (BUGONIA) | ▲ 1 |
| 7 | Joel Edgerton (TRAIN DREAMS) | ▼ 1 |
| 8 | Dwayne Johnson (THE SMASHING MACHINE) | |
| 9 | Jeremy Allen White (SPRINGSTEEN: DELIVER ME FROM NOWHERE) | |
| 10 | George Clooney (JAY KELLY) |
Last Updated:
| 1/13/2026 5:21 PM |
| Ema Sasic | ||
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Timothée Chalamet (MARTY SUPREME) | |
| 2 | Leonardo DiCaprio (ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER) | |
| 3 | Wagner Moura (THE SECRET AGENT) | ▲ 1 |
| 4 | Ethan Hawke (BLUE MOON) | ▼ 1 |
| 5 | Michael B. Jordan (SINNERS) | |
| 6 | Jesse Plemons (BUGONIA) | |
| 7 | Joel Edgerton (TRAIN DREAMS) | |
| 8 | George Clooney (JAY KELLY) | |
| 9 | Jeremy Allen White (SPRINGSTEEN: DELIVER ME FROM NOWHERE) | |
| 10 | Dwayne Johnson (THE SMASHING MACHINE) |
Last Updated:
| 1/15/2026 10:50 PM |