Tuesday, February 27, 2024

Surveying The Oscar Field: Updated Oscar Predictions (2/10/2021)

By Matt Neglia Cody Dericks 

What a time. We now know the Critics ChoiceGolden Globe and SAG nominations. We also received the Oscar shortlists and the BAFTA longlists. After months of trying to figure out how the 2020 Oscar race was going to take shape, we are finally starting to see which contenders are in and which contenders are out. We took last week off due to Sundance but we are now back with a massive update for you all in all Oscar categories (minus the shorts – still working on those).

If you want to see our predictions broken down individually, category by category, click here.

​Best Picture
1. ​The Trial Of The Chicago 7
2. Nomadland
3. Mank
4. One Night In Miami… (^)
5. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (v)
6. News Of The World (^)
7. Promising Young Woman (^)
8. Minari (NEW)
9. Da 5 Bloods (v)
10. Judas And The Black Messiah (v)

Dropped Out: The Father

With the announcement this past week of the Golden Globes, SAG and Critics Choice nominations, only one film has managed to get nominated at all of them in their top categories: “The Trial Of The Chicago 7.” Anyone still doubting this movie’s chances at winning Best Picture come April is purely in denial. However, critics’ favorite “Nomadland” will certainly put up a fight. Both “Da 5 Bloods” and “Judas And The Black Messiah” took the biggest hits of all, with the latter failing to receive a Best Picture nomination from either organization. It will really need to take off in a significant way when it premieres this weekend on HBO Max and become a late last-minute nominee like “American Sniper” or “Phantom Thread” at this point. Spike Lee’s Netflix film, on the other hand, is being kept alive due to the SAG Ensemble nomination it received, despite being entirely snubbed by the Golden Globes, missing the BAFTA longlist for Best Director and inexcusably missing Best Actor nominations for its star, Delroy Lindo at both Golden Globe and SAG. Mentions at the PGA and DGA could bring it back but I’m becoming increasingly worried for its chances. Contrary to that, did anyone have a better week than “Minari?” Despite receiving one Golden Globe nomination for Best Foreign Film, it managed to surpass everyone’s expectations landing three SAG nominations, including Best Ensemble and 10 Critics Choice nominations (the second overall behind David Fincher’s tech-giant “Mank“). The little movie that could from A24 has something that other Best Picture contenders desperately crave: passionate support. Where it was once on the bubble for a Best Picture nomination, it now feels like it will securely be in the top 10. And watch out for “News Of The World.” As much as I would love to see “The Father” take its place, the Tom Hanks western shocked most (but not all) with its Best Picture nomination at the Critics Choice Awards and now looks like it is following the same path as “Darkest Hour” did in 2017 to a Best Picture nomination. 

Best Director
1. Chloe Zhao – Nomadland
2. David Fincher – Mank
3. Aaron Sorkin – The Trial Of The Chicago 7
4. Regina King – One Night In Miami… (^)
5. Spike Lee – Da 5 Bloods (v)
6. Florian Zeller – The Father
7. George C. Wolfe – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
8. Emerald Fennell – Promising Young Woman (^)
9. Lee Isaac Chung – Minari
10. Paul Greengrass – News Of The World  (NEW)

Dropped Out: Shaka King – Judas And The Black Messiah

Unless if Shaka King surprisingly receives a Best Director nomination with the DGA, his chances in this category are done after “Judas And The Black Messiah” failed to land director nominations at either Golden Globes and Critics Choice. It also was unable to make the BAFTA longlist for both Picture and Director. However, what’s starting to emerge is the possibility of a historic Best Director lineup where we have more than one woman nominated. We already know that Chloe Zhao will be nominated for her acclaimed work on Best Picture frontrunner “Nomadland” but after both Regina King and Emerald Fennell garnered both Golden Globe and Critics Choice nominations for Best Director (they’re both also longlisted for BAFTA), the conversation has taken an optimistic turn. Factor in this late surge for Lee Isaac Chung into the conversation (he received a Critics Choice nomination and is only one DGA nomination away from following Greta Gerwig’s path for “Lady Bird” in 2017) and the possibility that the Director’s branch may have residual love for Spike Lee following “BlacKkKlansman,” and we may be looking at another shocking 2012 Best Director lineup where two presumed frontrunners missed nominations due to the competitiveness of the category. Many have been pointing out flaws in both Sorkin and Fincher’s work since their movies premiered. Its possible passionate support for other contenders may make this the first-ever Best Director lineup without a white male nominee. It’s definitely a longshot as both Fincher and Sorkin are expected to make it but either way, the possibilities of this category are endless.​

Promising Young Woman

Best Actress
1. Viola Davis – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
2. Carey Mulligan – Promising Young Woman (^)
3. Frances McDormand – Nomadland (v)
4. Vanessa Kirby – Pieces Of A Woman (v)
5. Amy Adams – Hillbilly Elegy
6. Andra Day – The People vs. Billie Holiday (^)
7. Zendaya – Malcolm & Marie (v)
8. Sophia Loren – The Life Ahead (v)
9. Michelle Pfeiffer – French Exit
10. Kate Winslet – Ammonite (NEW)

Dropped Out: Meryl Streep – The Prom

Due to the strength that “Promising Young Woman” has shown at both the Golden Globes and the Critics Choice (and being longlisted across the board at BAFTA), Carey Mulligan has risen up the ranks and is now in a strong position to win Best Actress. There are still some on the NBP team who are questioning her film’s chances in Best Picture, thus, giving the edge to Viola Davis but if both receive Best Picture nominations, then this may take a similar route as Denzel Washington vs. Casey Affleck did in 2016 where the former won SAG and the latter won Critics Choice, Golden Globe and BAFTA and went on to win the Oscar. That’s one possibility in a category that is starting to solidify itself after months of speculation as contenders have dropped off (Bye-bye Meryl) and others are holding on for dear life (Sophia Loren and Kate Winslet). All eyes are now on who will get that fifth slot as Davis, Mulligan, McDormand and Vanessa Kirby (although, don’t be surprised to see her shockingly get snubbed) have all landed at Critics Choice, Golden Globe, SAG and are on the BAFTA longlist. Currently, the edge is being given to Amy Adams because she received a SAG nomination and is longlisted for BAFTA (the only two organizations with actual Academy crossover) but Andra Day is still in this fight as she received both Golden Globe and Critics Choice nominations for her turn in “The United States vs. Billie Holiday.” And what do we make of Zendaya’s showing at Critics Choice (she is also longlisted for BAFTA)? “Malcolm & Marie” premiered to mixed reviews and despite the strong campaign from Netflix, they already have a ton of other contenders in more Academy-friendly films they can focus on instead. If Zendaya gets nominated at the BAFTA, then much like her surprise Emmy run, I’d watch out for her to spoil in this category as well.

Best Actor
1. Chadwick Boseman – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
2. Anthony Hopkins – The Father
3. Riz Ahmed – Sound Of Metal (^)
4. Gary Oldman – Mank (^)
5. Delroy Lindo – Da 5 Bloods (v)
6. Steven Yeun – Minari (^)
7. Kingsley Ben-Adir – One Night In Miami… (v)
8. Tom Hanks – News Of The World (v)
9. Mads Mikkelsen – Another Round (NEW)
10. Ben Affleck – The Way Back (v)

Dropped Out: John David Washington – Malcolm & Marie

As William Hurt famously yells in “A History Of Violence,” “How do you fuck that up?!” Delroy Lindo, a veteran actor, who has never had a role this juicy, who has never received the kind of spotlight he received this year for Spike Lee’s “Da 5 Bloods,” was inexplicably snubbed by both the Golden Globes and SAG for Best Actor. A crime has been committed and much like Ethan Hawke for “First Reformed,” we are going to have to do everything in our power to try and make this happen. Even though we failed with Hawke in 2018, Delroy’s chances are being kept alive by his film’s SAG ensemble nomination and the hope that “Da 5 Bloods” will be broadly accepted by the Academy. However, this is not a good position to be in. Boseman, Hopkins, Ahmed and Oldman have landed everywhere they needed to and unless you’re predicting an Oldman snub, you need to hope that the long period between Golden Globe/SAG nominations till Oscar voting benefits Delroy. Otherwise, that fifth slot can still go any number of ways. We’ll need to see who BAFTA nominates in the end before making a final tough call on a category that previously had five presumed safe bets.​

​Best Supporting Actress

1. Glenn Close – Hillbilly Elegy
2. Olivia Colman – The Father (^)
3. Amanda Seyfried – Mank (v)
4. Youn Yuh-jung – Minari (^)
5. Helena Zengel – News of the World (^)
6. Ellen Burstyn – Pieces Of A Woman (v)
7. Maria Bakalova – Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (v)
8. Dominique Fishback – Judas And The Black Messiah
9. Jodie Foster – The Mauritanian (^)
10. Saoirse Ronan – Ammonite (v)

I’m sorry but I have to laugh because there are people who still believe they can influence the awards season. Anyone still doubting Glenn Close at this point is living in a fantasy world. At Next Best Picture, we called that she was winning the moment we saw the critically panned “Hillbilly Elegy.” Despite everyone’s best efforts to avoid the unavoidable, Close has failed to miss a nomination anywhere. Olivia Colman is the only other person in this category who has gotten a nomination everywhere she could so far. It looks like we’re heading for another showdown between the two actresses in the Supporting category after their famous last outing in Best Actress in 2018. Despite Maria Bakalova’s SAG nomination, there are still those of us on the site who are waiting to see if BAFTA will go for her. Another populist choice was last year’s Jennifer Lopez for “Hustlers,” and she managed to get nominated everywhere but BAFTA. That is Bakalova’s final test. If she gets in, I and many others will finally predict her. Some still might not due to the movie’s comedic nature and the Academy’s long history of ignoring these types of performances. However, another critic favorite, Youn Yuh-jung, received a critical SAG nomination for her work in “Minari.” With the film’s Best Picture chances growing, we’re giving her the edge over Bakalova. Ellen Burstyn took the biggest hit of all after failing to receive Golden Globe or SAG nominations for her supporting turn in “Pieces Of A Woman” and Amanda Seyfried shockingly missed a SAG nomination for “Mank,” putting her Oscar win chances in severe jeopardy. Yes, Regina King managed to win the Oscar recently without either a SAG or BAFTA nomination but it’s still incredibly rare. All eyes are now on BAFTA to see who in our ten makes the list and who doesn’t.

Best Supporting Actor
1. Sacha Baron Cohen – The Trial Of The Chicago 7
2. Daniel Kaluuya – Judas And The Black Messiah (^)
3. Leslie Odom Jr. – One Night In Miami… (v)
4. Chadwick Boseman – Da 5 Bloods
5. Bill Murray – On The Rocks
6. Paul Raci – Sound of Metal
7. David Strathairn – Nomadland (^)
8. Jared Leto – The Little Things (NEW)
9. Mark Rylance – The Trial Of The Chicago 7 (v)
10. Frank Langella – The Trial Of The Chicago 7 (v)

Dropped Out: Glynn Turman – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

Daniel Kaluuya was looking very, very strong for a moment there. It looked like he could go all the way to a Best Supporting Actor win for his electrifying performance in “Judas And The Black Messiah.” However, with the film’s recent poor showing (it couldn’t even get a Critics Choice nomination for Best Picture), this one is still Sacha Baron Cohen’s to lose unless if Kaluuya starts picking up some very important wins at the televised award shows. It looks like the only other safe contender with them is Leslie Odom Jr. for his work in “One Night In Miami.” Other than those three, though, everyone has either failed to get all of the necessary nominations they need so far or haven’t shown up at all. The most surprising development in this race is the inclusion of former Oscar winner Jared Leto for his creepy performance in the mixed to negatively received film “The Little Things.” Is he about to go on to his second Oscar nomination, or is this an Aaron Taylor Johnson in “Nocturnal Animals” situation? Many are hoping it is the latter but after the film made an impressive showing on some of the Academy’s shortlists yesterday, it might just be the former. He was not longlisted for BAFTA (neither was Bill Murray for “On The Rocks“), so all eyes will be looking to see if Paul Raci can show up anywhere other than Critics Choice to see if he can turn the goodwill from the critics and ride the positive buzz for “Sound Of Metal” to an Oscar nomination.​


​Best Original Screenplay
1. The Trial Of The Chicago 7
2. Promising Young Woman
3. Mank
4. Minari (^)
5. Soul (v)
6. Judas And The Black Messiah (v)
7. Never Rarely Sometimes Always (^)
8. Sound Of Metal (v)
9. Da 5 Bloods (v)
10. On The Rocks

A still wildly unpredictable category. Many are expecting to see “The Trial Of The Chicago 7” and “Promising Young Woman” to show up here by default. Next would be Jack Fincher’s screenplay for “Mank” due to the film’s positive reception from major awards bodies so far. I always believed that at a bare minimum, “Minari” would get a screenplay nomination at least but now that it has cemented itself in the Best Picture race, I feel more confident than ever that it’s getting nominated here. That leaves a final slot for a lot of contenders. The writers’ branch of the Academy has a history of giving a film a “cool” lone screenplay nomination. We’ve seen it before with “Margin Call,” “Nightcrawler,” “Straight Outta Compton,” “20th Century Women,” “The Big Sick,” “First Reformed,” “Knives Out,” and so many others. My money is currently on Eliza Hittman’s critically praised “Never Rarely Sometimes Always” to be that lone screenplay nomination. But if not, watch out for “Sound Of Metal,” which recently got a Critics Choice nomination and is gaining some serious traction in many categories across the board. And what about “Judas And The Black Messiah” and “Da 5 Bloods?” Those films were longlisted for BAFTA in this category but much of it still depends on their Best Picture chances.

Best Adapted Screenplay
​1. One Night In Miami…
2. Nomadland
3. The Father
4. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
5. News of the World (^

6. First Cow
7. I’m Thinking of Ending Things (v

8. Hillbilly Elegy
9. The White Tiger
10. Emma.

Another very competitive category where 6-7 contenders are duking it out for five slots. Currently, the only film to land every nomination it could receive (Critics Choice, Golden Globe & USC Scripter) is “Nomadland,” which makes a ton of sense considering its Best Picture frontrunner status. After that, we have “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom” and “One Night In Miami,” which received Critics Choice and USC Scripter. Then we have “The Father,” which received Golden Globe and Critics Choice. After that, it starts to get tricky. I mentioned “cool” lone screenplay nominees before and Kelly Reichardt’s “First Cow” certainly fits that mold (currently has USC Scripter and Critics Choice nominations and no NYFCC Best Film winner has ever got on to not receive a single Oscar) but another one who could get that type of mention would be previous Academy Award winner Charlie Kaufman for his maddeningly brilliant adaptation of “I’m Thinking Of Ending Things.” And then there’s “News Of The World” to consider, which just recently won the National Board of Review for Best Adapted Screenplay, is coming in hot in the Best Picture race and got a Critics Choice Nomination for Best Adapted Screenplay. Either you think both “First Cow” and “I’m Thinking Of Ending Things” are completely out of this race, or there’s a major snub coming from one of the presumably locked four—your call.​

​Best Animated Feature
​1. Soul
2. Wolfwalkers
3. Over the Moon
4. Onward
5. The Croods: A New Age(^)
6. The Willoughbys(v)
7. A Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon
8. Bombay Rose
9. Trolls World Tour
10. Calamity, A Childhood of Martha Jane Cannary

Not much movement here. “The Croods: A New Age” took the lead on “The Willoughbys” after it managed to receive a Golden Globe nomination over it. Otherwise, it’s the same old, same old.

Best Documentary Feature
1. Dick Johnson is Dead
2. All In: The Fight for Democracy
3. Boys State (^)
4. Time
5. Crip Camp(^)
6. Welcome to Chechnya (NEW)
7. The Truffle Hunters (^)
8. The Mole Agent (NEW)
9. 76 Days (^)
10. Collective (v)
Dropped Out: The Dissident & Totally Under Control

Totally Under Control” failed to make any dent in the season with critics or other voting bodies but to see Bryan Fogel’s “The Dissident” miss the Documentary shortlist was truly shocking. The remaining documentaries are all very strong and can all feasibly get nominated. There’s even a chance some of us may go 0-5 on nomination morning. It’s anyone’s guess at this point as each of the remaining films have a lot of buzz, passionate support and strong campaigns. Expect there to be a lot of shifting in this category over the next few weeks. 

Best International Feature Film
1. Another Round
2. Quo Vadis, Aida?
3. Collective (^)
4. A Sun (^)
5. Two Of Us (NEW)
6. La Llorona (NEW)
7. I’m No Longer Here (v)
8. Dear Comrades! (v)
9. Night Of The Kings (v)
10. The Mole Agent (NEW)

Dropped Out: My Little SisterNotturno & Never Gonna Snow Again

Another Round” is still at the top of all of our lists, especially because of its showing at the BAFTA longlists, where it may land nominations outside of just the International Feature category. On a personal level, I’ve been championing “Quo Vadis, Aida?” since I saw the film at TIFF and am incredibly happy to have seen it go this far without a distributor. All of the films in NBP’s top ten have garnered a lot of buzz and support but now is the time where other contenders can make unexpected moves and rise up the rankings now that everyone will be trying to catch these shortlisted films before the final Oscar nominations are announced. Like Best Documentary Feature, expect to see a lot of movement in this category as more contenders get seen.

News of the World

Best Cinematography
​1. Mank
2. Nomadland
3. News of the World
4. Tenet
5. Judas And The Black Messiah 
6. Da 5 Bloods
7. The Midnight Sky (^)
8. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (v)
9. Minari
10. I’m Thinking Of Ending Things

The recent collection of precursor nominations didn’t do much to change our predictions for this category. There seems to be little that could get in the way of inevitable nominations for “Mank” and “Nomadland.” Each employs a style of cinematography that the Oscars love: the Academy usually reserves a slot in this category for a black-and-white film like “Mank” and they also appreciate sweeping vistas and beautiful sky shots, like the ones found in “Nomadland.” It doesn’t hurt that they’re both Best Picture frontrunners. “News of the World” stands a good chance at racking up a good number of craft nominations with little trouble, and this category is one of its more guaranteed nominations.

Best Costume Design
1. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom(^)
2. Emma. (v)
3. Mank
4. The Personal History of David Copperfield
5. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (^)
6. Mulan(v)
7. The Glorias
8. News of the World(^)
9. Ammonite(^)
10. The Prom(v)
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom” overtook the showy period work of “Emma.” most likely because its SAG Ensemble nod and strong showing with Critics Choice nominations helped solidify its strength as a Best Picture contender. “Mank” feels like exactly the type of flashy-yet-authentic costume work that the Academy loves, a la “The Artist,” and it should have no trouble being noticed up here. Even with a mixed reception and a lackluster showing with precursor awards, this category may be the best chance “The United States vs. Billie Holiday” has for a nomination outside of Best Actress.

Best Film Editing
​1. The Trial of the Chicago 7
2. Mank
3. Nomadland
4. The Father
5. Tenet
6. Da 5 Bloods(^)
7. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom(v)
8. News of the World(^)
9. Judas and the Black Messiah(v)
10. Sound Of Metal (NEW)

Dropped Out: One Night In Miami…

Little change here. “The Trial of the Chicago 7” holds firm in the top spot; it has precisely the type of noticeable, flashback-heavy editing that the Academy has a fondness for. The fact that it’s one of our current Best Picture frontrunners certainly helps too. “Mank” and “Nomadland” will likely have their Best Picture possibilities bolstered by an appearance in this category, which is so often tied to the big prize. “Sound Of Metal” made its debut in our rankings, thanks to a stronger-than-expected week with precursor nominations. It did particularly well with the Critics Choice Awards, where it nabbed nominations in Best Picture, Best Original Screenplay, and Best Editing, plus its expected acting nominations.

​Best Makeup & Hairstyling
​1. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
2. Hillbilly Elegy
3. Mank
4. Birds of Prey
5. Emma.(^)
6. Pinocchio (^)
7. The Glorias (NEW)
9. The Little Things (NEW)
10. Jingle Jangle (NEW)

Dropped Out: Borat Subsequent MoviefilmMulanThe Personal History of David Copperfield & The United States vs. Billie Holiday

This category had a severe overhaul thanks to the Academy’s recently-released shortlists. Our top contenders didn’t change, but some expected nominees like “The United States vs. Billie Holiday” and “Borat Subsequent Moviefilm” saw their campaigns reach the end of the road when they weren’t shortlisted. “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom” and “Hillbilly Elegy” are both standouts for their stars’ transformations and are sure bets for nominations here. “Birds of Prey” overcame a complete abandonment by its studio (it’s not even on the Warner Brothers For Your Consideration site) and managed to be shortlisted here and in Visual Effects. There’s a good chance it’ll replicate the success of its prequel “Suicide Squad” in this category and garner a nomination.

Best Production Design
​1. Mank
2. Emma.
3. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom(^)
4. News of the World(^)
5. The Personal History of David Copperfield(v) 
6. The Midnight Sky
7. The Trial of the Chicago 7(^)
8. Tenet (NEW)
9. Mulan(v) 
10. Judas and the Black Messiah(v) 
More than any other category, this may be the best chance of a nomination for “Mank.” Unlike other categories such as Best Cinematography, its closest competitors either don’t have as obvious design work or as much of a possibility for Best Picture as “Mank.” As in many categories, “News of the World” saw growth here, thanks to its hefty haul of precursor nominations. “Tenet” made its first appearance here; it’s beginning to look like it may be this year’s film that gathers the most nominations that’s nowhere to be found in Best Picture.

Best Sound
1. Sound of Metal
2. Mank
3. Tenet
4. News of the World(^)
5. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom(v)
6. Greyhound(^)
7. The Midnight Sky(v)
8. Soul(v)
9. Da 5 Bloods
10. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (NEW)

Dropped Out: The Prom

The Best Picture strength of “The Trial of the Chicago 7” is beginning to help its chances in other categories. It feels like exactly the type of film with broad appeal that could easily rack up double-digit nominations, including here in Best Sound, where it broke into our rankings. “News of the World,” as in many categories, saw advancement here. But until proven otherwise, the appropriately-obvious sound work in “Sound of Metal” is our top contender.

The Little Things

Best Visual Effects
​1. Tenet
2. The Midnight Sky
3. Mank(^)
4. Birds of Prey(^)
5. Mulan(^)
6. Welcome To Chechnya (NEW)
7. Soul (NEW)
8. The One And Only Ivan (NEW)
9. Love And Monsters (NEW)
10. Bloodshot (NEW)

Dropped Out: GreyhoundThe Invisible Man, Sonic the Hedgehog, The Call of the Wild & Wonder Woman 1984

This category also saw itself whittled down to ten contenders with the release of the shortlists, leading to some shocking omissions like “The Invisible Man,” “Sonic the Hedgehog,” and “Wonder Woman 1984.” Some films that were completely off our collective radar were shortlisted, like “Bloodshot” and “Love and Monsters.” Surprisingly, the visual effects of “Soul” was earmarked by the Academy. Animated films “The Nightmare Before Christmas” and “Kubo and the Two Strings” were previously nominated here. Still, they’re stop-motion animated films as opposed to the CGI work of “Soul” (the remake of “The Lion King” was nominated last year, but Disney itself didn’t want the Academy to consider it an animated film). In the end, it may not matter what four films are nominated alongside “Tenet,” as it stands a good chance that Christopher Nolan’s latest will waltz its way to an easy win here.

Best Original Score
​1. Soul
2. Mank
3. News of the World
4. The Midnight Sky
5. Tenet
6. Minari
7. The Trial of the Chicago 7(^)
8. Da 5 Bloods
9. The Little Things (NEW)
10. The Life Ahead (NEW)

Dropped Out: Ammonite & Hillbilly Elegy

The Academy’s shortlists didn’t do much to shake up this category. In fact, the inclusion of the pair of Reznor and Ross scores for “Soul” and “Mank,” combined with their impressive showings in other shortlists, only seems to solidify the vast lead these scores have over their competitors. The composing duo even managed to earn double nominations from the Golden Globes, which the HFPA is far less comfortable doing than the Academy. Yet again, “News of the World” shows enough strength in this category to earn a nomination but most likely not win. Its composer James Newton Howard has yet to win an Oscar after eight previous nominations, and he earned mentions from the recent Golden Globe and Critics Choice nominations. Also, don’t be surprised if perennial Oscar bridesmaid Thomas Newman earns a nomination for his work on “The Little Things“; its unexpected precursor attention for Jared Leto and strong showing amongst the shortlists seems to indicate that the movie is on voters’ minds.

Best Original Song
​1. One Night in Miami – “Speak Now”
2. The Life Ahead – “Seen”
3. The Trial of the Chicago 7 – “Hear My Voice”
4. All In: The Fight for Democracy – “Turntables” (^)
5. Judas and the Black Messiah – “Fight for You” (NEW)
6. Borat Subsequent Moviefilm – “Wuhan Flu” (^)
7. Giving Voice – “Never Break” (NEW)
8. The One and Only Ivan – “Free” (NEW)
9. Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga – “Husavik (My Hometown)” (v)
10. Minari – “Rain Song” (NEW)

Dropped Out: Miss Americana – “Only the Young,” Over the Moon – “Rocket to the Moon,” The Prom – “Wear Your Crown” & The Forty-Year-Old Version – “Poverty Porn”

The shortlists did a number on our predictions in this category. Plenty of contenders had their campaigns abruptly ended, most surprisingly “Only the Young” from Taylor Swift’s documentary “Miss Americana.” Swift also notably missed the shortlists last year for her song written for “Cats.” “Fight for You” from “Judas and the Black Messiah” made its first appearance in our rankings, and its nominations from both the Golden Globes and the Critics Choice seem to indicate its position as a strong contender. In fact, the only other songs to receive nominations from both awards bodies and manage to find a place on the shortlist are “Speak Now” from “One Night in Miami” and “Seen” from “The Life Ahead.” “Speak Now” is an assured nominee, further helped by the fact that its co-writer Leslie Odom Jr. stands a good chance at a Supporting Actor nomination. And “Seen” is co-written by eleven-time nominee Diane Warren. Obviously, she should never be counted out as a contender.

We will be back next week to deliver an update on where we feel the race stands and you can always check out our podcast in the meantime for more commentary on this year’s awards season. You can find our team’s detailed predictions organized by category here. Let us know your thoughts in the comments section below or on our Twitter account.

​You can follow Matt & Cody and hear more of their thoughts on the Oscars and Film on Twitter at @NextBestPicture & @codymonster91

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Matt Neglia
Matt Negliahttps://nextbestpicture.com/
Obsessed about the Oscars, Criterion Collection and all things film 24/7. Critics Choice Member.

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