Thursday, June 20, 2024

Our Final Predictions For The 95th Academy Awards

The 95th Academy Awards are this Sunday. After listening to our predictions, the NBP Team has made their final predictions (some of which are different from what you heard on the podcast), which you can read below. On top of that, we have one final contest this awards season for you to tell us who you think will win this Sunday. Click below to enter our contest to predict the 2023 Oscars contest. All categories must be predicted, with the submission deadline being the day of the awards right before the ceremony begins. The winner will receive one of the Best Picture nominees of their choosing on 4K UHD, Blu-Ray, or DVD (Sorry, but this only applies to U.S. entries).

​Best of luck and enjoy the show!

CONTEST HAS CLOSED


Here are some of our predictions for the Oscars which you can use as a guide if you’re having trouble deciding on a winner.

​Predictions are provided by: Alyssa Christian, Amy SmithCody DericksDan BayerDaniel HowatDanilo Castro, Ema Sasic, Eve O’Dea, Giovanni Lago, Isaiah Washington, Josh ParhamLauren LaMagnaMatt Neglia, Meredith Loftus, Nadia DalimonteTom O’BrienWill Mavity & Zoe Rose Bryant

Everything Everywhere All At OnceBest Picture
All Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar: The Way of Water
The Banshees of Inisherin
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All At OnceALL
The Fabelmans
TÁR
Top Gun: Maverick
Triangle of Sadness
Women Talking

It’s rare when we come to Best Picture, and it feels as locked as this, but after winning at PGA, DGA, WGA, and SAG, we all feel very confident (haters be damned) that “Everything Everywhere All At Once” is winning this. Had “All Quiet on the Western Front” built its momentum earlier in the season, it could’ve been a stronger no. 2, but instead, this race feels like 2020, where “Nomadland” was so far ahead that we had trouble afterward even figuring out what the next closest winner was.

Best Director
Martin McDonagh – The Banshees of Inisherin
Daniel Kwan & Daniel Scheinert – Everything Everywhere All At OnceALL
Todd Field – TÁR
Steven Spielberg – The Fabelmans
Ruben Ostlund – Triangle of Sadness

Same with Best Picture. Once the Daniels won the DGA (combined with the Critics Choice Award), that instantly put them ahead. The only one who could defeat them is Golden Globe winner Steven Spielberg who could procure enough legacy narrative votes for a tight win. Still, we feel pretty confident in the Daniels’ vision being recognized.

Best Actress
Cate Blanchett – TÁR – Danilo
Ana de Armas – Blonde
Andrea Riseborough – To Leslie
Michelle Williams – The Fabelmans
Michelle Yeoh – Everything Everywhere All At Once – Alyssa, Amy, Cody, Dan, Daniel, Ema, Eve, Giovanni, Isaiah, Josh, Lauren, Matt, Meredith, Nadia, Tom, Will & Zoe

I hope we’re not getting lured into a false sense of security. We’ve been here before where we felt a woman of color would win this category again since Halle Berry did the last and only time in 2001, over twenty years ago. Michelle Yeoh’s momentum peaked with a SAG win two days before voting and a Spirit Award win a few days into voting. However, her closest competition, Cate Blanchett, should not be totally discounted for a third Oscar win. This is a very close race despite who the NBP is overwhelmingly predicting. One thing that can be said for sure is despite “Everything Everywhere All At Once” being heavily predicted to win anywhere from four to seven Oscars this Sunday, I think all of us would trade all of its other wins to see Michelle Yeoh take this.

Best Actor
Austin Butler – Elvis – Alyssa, Amy, Cody, Dan, Daniel, Danilo, Ema, Eve, Giovanni, Isaiah, Josh, Lauren, Matt, Nadia, Tom, Will & Zoe
Colin Farrell – The Banshees of Inisherin
Brendan Fraser – The Whale – Meredith
Paul Mescal – Aftersun
Bill Nighy – Living

Like Best Actress, don’t let NBP’s final predictions fool you. This is another close one between Golden Globe & BAFTA winner Austin Butler and Critics Choice and SAG winner Brendan Fraser. Butler gets the slight edge due to being in a Best Picture nominee, but we wouldn’t be shocked to see sentimentality carry Fraser over to a victory.

​Best Supporting Actress
​​​​Angela Bassett – Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Hong Chau – The Whale
Kerry Condon – The Banshees of Inisherin – Alyssa, Amy, Cody, Dan, Daniel, Danilo, Eve, Giovanni, Isaiah, Josh, Matt, Lauren, Meredith, Tom, Will & Zoe
Jamie Lee Curtis – Everything Everywhere All At Once – Ema & Nadia
Stephanie Hsu – Everything Everywhere All At Once

Another category where everyone is very unsure about their final choices as this feels wider open than some would have you believe. Realistically, anyone other than Hong Chau could win this (sorry, Hong). Most of us settled on Condon as we feel Jamie Lee Curtis was a SAG-only thing, and if Bassett was going to win, she should’ve won at SAG. We think the two veteran actors will split the vote and allow BAFTA-winner Kerry Condon to be “The Banshees of Inisherin’s” sole win of the night.

Best Supporting Actor
Brendan Gleeson – The Banshees of Inisherin
Brian Tyree Henry – Causeway
Judd Hirsch – The Fabelmans
Barry Keoghan – The Banshees of Inisherin
Ke Huy Quan – Everything Everywhere All At Once – ALL

Despite a miss at BAFTA to Barry Keoghan, Ke Huy Quan has this locked up. No narrative, campaign, or series of speeches has been better, and much like Troy Kotsur last year, we’re excited to see this grateful, unrecognized performer get his moment in the spotlight in what will surely be one of the evening’s highlights.

Kerry Condon - The Banshees Of InisherinBest Original Screenplay
The Banshees of Inisherin – Danilo & Giovanni
Everything Everywhere All At Once – Alyssa, Amy, Cody, Dan, Daniel, Ema, Eve, Isaiah, Josh, Lauren, Matt, Meredith, Nadia, Tom, Will & Zoe
The Fabelmans
TÁR
Triangle of Sadness

Another race that’s very close between “Everything Everywhere All At Once” and “The Banshees of Inisherin.” However, no Best Original Screenplay winner has ever lost with the Critics Choice/WGA combo, which is exactly what the Daniels have, and since the film is winning Best Picture, most of us are leaning in that direction. However, if voters feel the Daniels are safe in Best Director and want to spread the wealth, this may be the time and the place to recognize McDonagh’s writing.

Best Adapted Screenplay
All Quiet on the Western Front
Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
Living
Top Gun: Maverick
Women Talking – ALL

Much like Best Original Screenplay, other than “Up In The Air,” no film that won WGA, Critics Choice, and USC Scripter has gone on to lose Best Adapted Screenplay. “Women Talking” has all three, a Best Picture nomination, a sole screenwriter who was overlooked for her directing, and is considered the more writer-friendly film of the nominees. Its strongest competition is BAFTA winner “All Quiet on the Western Front,” which, based on its strong showing at BAFTA, winning Best Picture, Best Director, Best Adapted Screenplay, and four other awards, could certainly unseat it here if simply more voters are passionate about it compared to Sarah Polley’s chamber-piece drama. This one is a nail-biter.

Best Animated Feature
Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio – ALL
Marcel the Shell with Shoes On
Puss in Boots: The Last Wish
The Sea Beast
Turning Red

After sweeping every Animated precursor, we have no doubt Guillermo del Toro will win another Oscar for his stop-motion animated classic.

Best Documentary Feature
All That Breathes
All the Beauty And the Bloodshed
Fire of Love
A House Made Of Splinters
​​​Navalny – ALL

Call it stubbornness, but NBP has been predicting this win for over a year since “Navalny” had its world premiere at the 2022 Sundance Film Festival. While “Fire of Love” has the DGA and ACE wins, we feel “Navalny’s” BAFTA/PGA combo is more substantial and is receiving a boost from its topical ties to Putin, Russia, and the ongoing war in Ukraine.

Best International Feature
All Quiet on the Western Front – ALL
Argentina, 1985
Close
EO
The Quiet Girl

No foreign language film that was also nominated for Best Picture has ever lost this category, so this will easily go to “All Quiet on the Western Front.”

All Quiet On The Western FrontBest Cinematography
All Quiet on the Western Front – ALL
Bardo
Elvis
Empire of Light
TÁR

ASC definitely made some of us a bit nervous by rewarding Mandy Walker (the first woman to ever win the prize and would be the first to ever win the Oscar as well) during the last day of Oscar voting. However, “Elvis” did not have to go up against “​All Quiet on the Western Front” there, and the two times the films have gone up against each other (BSC and BAFTA), “​All Quiet on the Western Front” has been victorious.

Best Costume Design
Babylon
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Elvis – ALL
Everything Everywhere All At Once
Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris

Catherine Martin is considered royalty in this category, having won twice before for “Moulin Rouge!” and “The Great Gatsby.” Having won BAFTA and CDG, plus “Elvis” being a Best Picture nominee, gives her the advantage over everything else.

Best Film Editing
The Banshees of Inisherin
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All At Once – Alyssa, Amy, Cody, Dan, Daniel, Danilo, Ema, Eve, Giovanni, Josh, Lauren, Matt, Meredith, Nadia, Tom, Will & Zoe
TÁR
Top Gun: Maverick – Isaiah

Is this the year the Sound/Editing stat finally breaks? It’s been going since 2005/2006 when “Crash” and “The Departed” both won Best Film Editing without a Best Sound nomination. The commonality between them is they both won Best Picture, which is what “Everything Everywhere All At Once” is poised to do. That, plus sweeping the precursors with no sign of weakness whatsoever, has given most of us enough confidence to finally see the stat fall.

Best Makeup & Hairstyling
​​​​​All Quiet on the Western Front
The Batman
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Elvis – ALL
The Whale

A category that is inherently tied to Best Actor. Between MUAHS winners “Elvis” and “The Whale,” whichever wins this category earlier in the evening could be a spoiler for what’s to come in Best Actor later. Given that it also won Critics’ Choice and BAFTA, we believe Baz Luhrmann’s film is further ahead in this close race.

Best Production Design
All Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar: The Way of Water
Babylon – Alyssa, Amy, Cody, Dan, Daniel, Ema, Eve, Giovanni, Isaiah, Lauren, Matt, Meredith, Nadia, Tom & Zoe
Elvis – Danilo, Josh & Will
The Fabelmans

You’re either predicting Catherine Martin to go two for two again as she previously did with “Moulin Rouge!” and “The Great Gatsby,” or you’re going with the film that, despite not having a Best Picture nomination swept the precursors. Most of us are going with “Babylon,” but we wouldn’t be shocked to see Catherine Martin win a total of six Oscars from three films in different years.

Best Original Score
All Quiet on the Western Front – Alyssa, Dan, Ema, Josh, Matt, Meredith, Will & Zoe
Babylon – Amy, Daniel, Danilo, Eve, Giovanni, Isaiah, Lauren, Nadia & Tom
The Banshees of Inisherin
Everything Everywhere All At Once – Cody
The Fabelmans

This is by far the hardest craft category to predict. The Golden Globe-winning “Babylon” is easily the best score of the bunch, and if this was based solely on the merit of the score alone, Justin Hurwitz would win. However, we know AMPAS voters did not enjoy Damien Chazelle’s latest, and given that it’s the only non-Best Picture nominee of the bunch, this makes it vulnerable to losing out to either BAFTA-winner “All Quiet on the Western Front” or one of the other three Best Picture nominees. Fun fact: No Best Picture-winning film nominated for Best Original Score and Original Song has ever lost Best Original Score. Could “Everything Everywhere All At Once” be a shocker win in the category after not winning at Critics Choice, Golden Globe, or BAFTA? In a race this fractured, anything can happen!

Austn Butler - ElvisBest Original Song
Tell it Like a Woman – “Applause”
Top Gun: Maverick – “Hold My Hand”
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever – “Lift Me Up”
RRR – “Naatu Naatu” – ALL
Everything Everywhere All At Once – “This Is A Life”

No song that won at Critics Choice and Golden Globe, whether it has a Best Picture nomination or not, and has gone on to be nominated at the Oscars for Best Original Song has ever lost here. And given this is the only place for fans of “RRR” to vote for it, we think that gives it even more of a shot at winning. We look forward to seeing the performances of all these songs but “Naatu Naatu” will most likely bring the house down.

Best Sound
All Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar: The Way of Water
The Batman
Elvis
Top Gun: Maverick – ALL

After winning MPSE and CAS, we feel pretty confident this is where the Academy will reward “Top Gun: Maverick.” Its loss to “All Quiet on the Western Front” at BAFTA can be chalked up to British voters identifying with that film more than the quintessentially more American production of “Top Gun: Maverick.” It’s possible the BAFTA love for “All Quiet on the Western Front” translates into a win here, as war films tend to do very well in this category. Still, we also cannot imagine the mega-blockbuster sensation of 2022, Top Gun: Maverick,” going home empty-handed.

Best Visual Effects
All Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar: The Way of Water – ALL
The Batman
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Top Gun: Maverick

Get ready to see “Dune” and “Avatar” trade wins in this category over the next few years. We’re not complaining. One of the biggest locks of the night.

Best Animated Short
The Boy, The Mole, The Fox and the Horse – Amy, Dan, Daniel, Danilo, Eve, Giovanni, Isaiah, Josh, Lauren, Matt, Meredith, Tom & Will
The Flying Sailor
Ice Merchants
My Year of Dicks – Alyssa, Cody, Ema, Nadia & Zoe
An Ostrich Told Me the World is Fake and I Think I Believe It

And this is where the true division begins amongst the NBP team. Some of us feel Apple’s massive Oscar campaign for “The Boy, The Mole, The Fox and the Horse,” plus the short film’s built-in audience from the popular children’s book, will be enough to push it over the edge. However, those who roll their eyes at its simplistic storytelling and lengthy runtime are retreating towards more mature and cohesive titles such as “Ice Merchants” and the amusingly titled “My Year of Dicks” (how many voters put this on their ballot based on the title alone?). This tight race will likely determine who pulls ahead on Oscar night with their winner predictions.

Best Documentary Short
The Elephant Whisperers – Isaiah
Haulout
How Do You Measure a Year? – Danilo
The Martha Mitchell Effect
Stranger at the Gate – Alyssa, Amy, Cody, Dan, Daniel, Ema, Eve, Giovanni, Josh, Lauren, Matt, Meredith, Nadia, Tom, Will & Zoe

Much like Best Animated Short, we have some division here at NBP. Most of us feel “Stranger At The Gate” is ahead due to the presence of Malala Yousafzai on the campaign trail, and its messages of intolerance, growth, and change will speak to voters while enraging users online just as other short winners, such as “Skin” and “Two Distant Strangers” have in recent years. The one to watch out for is Netflix’s cute, beautiful, and heartwarming “The Elephant Whisperers.” It’s usually a crap shoot with the shorts, and this year is no different.

Best Live-Action Short
An Irish Goodbye – Alyssa, Amy, Cody, Dan, Daniel, Danilo, Ema, Eve, Giovanni, Isaiah, Josh, Lauren, Matt, Meredith, Tom, Will & Zoe
Ivalu
Le Pupille – Nadia
Night Ride
The Red Suitcase

While most of us agree “The Red Suitcase” is the best of the bunch and should win the category, we’re all going with the broader “An Irish Goodbye,” which we think will appeal to more voters and maybe even get made into a feature-length film down the road. Maybe we’re just letting the Irish presence of “The Banshees of Inisherin” and “The Quiet Girl” influence us too much, but given it also won the BAFTA last month, it’s safe to assume we may be correct. Alice Rohrwacher’s “Le Pupille,” co-produced by Oscar darling Alfonso Cuarón, has been receiving quite a push from Disney and could also take this. Either choice would make sense in hindsight.

CONTEST HAS CLOSED


Please be sure to listen to our reasoning behind some of our Oscar Predictions in our latest podcast episode below and check out our consensus predictions here
​Predictions start about 9 minutes into the episode. Thank you everyone!

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Matt Neglia
Matt Negliahttps://nextbestpicture.com/
Obsessed about the Oscars, Criterion Collection and all things film 24/7. Critics Choice Member.

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