With “Project Hail Mary” lighting up theaters and “Michael’s” songs getting louder each day, we’re already getting a taste of how many blockbuster Best Picture contenders exist this year. We don’t even have to wait till fall for the rest of the group; this summer, we’re getting two auteur blockbusters: Christopher Nolan’s “The Odyssey“ and Steven Spielberg’s return to sci-fi, “Disclosure Day.“ Then there are the fall releases such as “Digger,” “Narnia,“ and “Dune: Part Three,“which round out the list of seven potential blockbusters people are currently tossing around. Looking at many people’s early Oscar predictions over the last several days, it’s clear not all seven will be nominated. Why? Just look at the trends since the Best Picture field expanded in 2009, with the potential to add more blockbuster films to its lineups.
2009 – 2 Blockbuster Films
Avatar – $237 million budget
The Blind Side
District 9
An Education
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
Precious: Based on the Novel ‘Push’ by Sapphire
A Serious Man
Up – $175 million budget
Up in the Air
2010 – 2 Blockbuster Films
Black Swan
The Fighter
Inception – $160 million budget
The Kids Are All Right
The King’s Speech
127 Hours
The Social Network
Toy Story 3 – $200 million budget
True Grit
Winter’s Bone
2011 – 1 Blockbuster Film
The Artist
The Descendants
Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close
The Help
Hugo – $150–170 million budget
Midnight in Paris
Moneyball
The Tree of Life
War Horse
2012 – 2 Blockbuster Films
Amour
Argo
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Django Unchained – $100 million budget
Life of Pi – $120 million budget
Lincoln
Les Misérables
Silver Linings Playbook
Zero Dark Thirty
2013 – 2 Blockbuster Films
American Hustle
Captain Phillips
Dallas Buyers Club
Gravity – $80–130 million budget
Her
Nebraska
Philomena
12 Years a Slave
The Wolf of Wall Street – $100 million budget
2014 – 0 Blockbuster Films
American Sniper
Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)
Boyhood
The Grand Budapest Hotel
The Imitation Game
Selma
The Theory of Everything
Whiplash
2015 – 3 Blockbuster Films
The Big Short
Bridge of Spies
Brooklyn
Mad Max: Fury Road – $154.6–185.1 million budget
The Martian – $108 million budget
The Revenant – $135 million budget
Room
Spotlight
2016 – 0 Blockbuster Films
Arrival
Fences
Hacksaw Ridge
Hell or High Water
Hidden Figures
La La Land
Lion
Manchester by the Sea
Moonlight
2017 – 1 Blockbuster Film
Call Me By Your Name
Darkest Hour
Dunkirk – $100 million budget
Get Out
Lady Bird
Phantom Thread
The Post
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
2018 – 1 Blockbuster Film
Black Panther – $200 million budget
BlacKkKlansman
Bohemian Rhapsody
The Favourite
Green Book
Roma
A Star Is Born
Vice
2019 – 2 Blockbuster Films
Ford v Ferrari
The Irishman – $159–250 million budget
Jojo Rabbit
Joker
Little Women
Marriage Story
Parasite
1917 – $90–100 million budget
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
2020/21 – 0 Blockbuster Films
The Father
Judas and the Black Messiah
Mank
Minari
Nomadland
Promising Young Woman
Sound of Metal
The Trial of the Chicago 7
2021 – 2 Blockbuster Films
Belfast
CODA
Don’t Look Up
Drive My Car
Dune – $165 million budget
King Richard
Licorice Pizza
Nightmare Alley
The Power Of The Dog
West Side Story – $100Â million budget
2022 – 2 Blockbuster Films
All Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar: The Way of Water – $350–460 million budget
The Banshees Of Inisherin
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All at Once
The Fabelmans
Tár
Top Gun: Maverick – $170–177 million budget
Triangle of Sadness
Women Talking
2023 – 3 Blockbuster Films
American Fiction
Anatomy of a Fall
Barbie – $128–145 million budget
The Holdovers
Killers of the Flower Moon – $200–215 million budget
Maestro
Oppenheimer – $100 million budget
Past Lives
Poor Things
The Zone of Interest
2024 – 2 Blockbuster Films
Anora
The Brutalist
A Complete Unknown
Conclave
Dune: Part Two – $190 million budget
Emilia Pérez
I’m Still Here
Nickel Boys
The Substance
Wicked – $150Â million budget
2025 – 4 Blockbuster Films
Bugonia
F1 – $200–300 million budget
Frankenstein – $120 million budget
Hamnet
Marty Supreme
One Battle After Another – $130–175 million budget
The Secret Agent
Sentimental Value
Sinners – $90–100 million budget
Train Dreams
17 years. 156 films in total. 29 films with production budgets of over $100 million. Roughly 19% are considered blockbuster films solely based on their budgets. Some years, no blockbusters were nominated, and only last year did we see up to 4 nominated. On average, about 1.7 blockbuster films per year are nominated for Best Picture. Obviously, not all seven widely predicted blockbusters from 2026 will make the cut. Some of them are far likelier than others, but the question becomes, if most of these movies hit with critics and audiences, how many can feasibly get in?
Realistically, predicting two blockbuster Best Picture nominees is fair, given the findings above. Last year, we had a high of four films budgeted at or over $100 million getting in for Best Picture. 2023 (“Oppenheimer,” “Barbie,“ and “Killers of the Flower Moon“) and 2015 (“Mad Max: Fury Road,” “The Martian“ and “The Revenant“) have three pretty clear blockbusters, and other years have as low as zero and up to four, with that amount occurring just last year. With “Frankenstein“ coming from Netflix last year, perhaps it’s Greta Gerwig’s “Narnia”, which is also on Netflix, that will be their pony this year. Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu’s “Digger“ scratches the original vision itch that made “Sinners “ and “One Battle After Another“ last year’s top contenders.
The main takeaway you can make here is that predicting up to four is historically fair to do at this point, and enough of these films have yellow or red flags that you can reasonably shave off three. We shouldn’t be considering zero because we’re firmly past the pandemic years, and even in some of those years, at least one blockbuster made it in, so let’s say the floor is 1 and the ceiling is 4. Now, with a year stacked with talented filmmakers working with high-budgeted, genre projects, we could see that number bump up to five. Still, the hesitancy people have to predict such a populist lineup is understandable. Going back to 2022, films like “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever“ and “Glass Onion“ were in the Best Picture conversation but perhaps left out, in part, because the blockbuster appetite was already being satisfied by “Avatar: The Way of Water“ and “Top Gun: Maverick.”
Right now, “Project Hail Mary,” “The Odyssey,” “Dune: Part Three,“ and “Digger“ feel like the safest bets out of the seven in conversation. The first, of course, is having the benefit of being seen, not just seen but widely beloved and respected. The site has covered its prospects a few times, but it’s perhaps as sure a bet you can have for a film with a March release. Then with “The Odyssey“ and “Digger,” you’re just dealing with two of the most celebrated living filmmakers by the Academy, both working with casts and material that have everybody very excited.
There’s certainly more room for Inarritu to fail, not just with his last film, “Bardo,“ not connecting with most people, but even in a vacuum, this could just be a big swing and a miss. However, with the talent assembled here and the buzz Tom Cruise has had since the moment he was cast, it’d be foolish not to be predicting it right now.
It feels nearly impossible for Nolan to underdeliver with a project as epic in scope as “The Odyssey.“ Even if it underwhelms slightly critically or financially, the goodwill he has from “Oppenheimer“ and as the acting DGA President (which commands a ton of respect from his peers) means that a slightly disappointing film could still get in off the pure prowess and respect he has as a filmmaker.
Many expect the final chapter in the “Dune“ series to be a lock, with some even predicting it will be closer to “The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King“ than the underperformance of “Dune: Part Two.“ Barring this exceeding the incredible reception for the second chapter, it seems this incongruent final chapter in the trilogy, based on a different book from the first two, could either continue the series’ downward trajectory in awards recognition or be the crown jewel capper in what has been a widely beloved trilogy by audiences and the industry. With how many sequels come out now and how many we’ve seen enter the awards conversation this decade, the pattern of sequels having diminishing returns seems to be more common than when Peter Jackson ran the gauntlet. However, with the first two films receiving Best Picture nominations and this marketing itself as the conclusion to the trilogy, we feel this will be more “The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King“ (but not as much, we’re not expecting this to sweep eleven of its nominations and win Best Picture) than “Avatar: Fire And Ash.”
The “Frankenstein“ comparison for “Narnia,“ paired with Greta Gerwig’s track record as a filmmaker, perhaps makes it the most likely outside the big four we’ve mentioned. However, the first trailer for this will be very interesting to see how different it feels from the previous “Narnia“ films, and how much Gerwig puts her personal stamp on the end product. Even if it isn’t acclaimed or distinct enough to land in the Best Picture race, it will most certainly stay in the conversation for craft categories.
“Michael,“ on the other hand, perhaps has the widest range of possible outcomes. There’s a feasible world where the Antoinq Fuqua film is in the top five due to the potential for overwhelming success and audience love, or a world where it’s a dud, forgotten by the end of the year. Given how famous Jackson and his music are, it would be pretty surprising for the film to fall under the radar the way something like “Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere“ did, but one has to wonder just how little a Michael Jackson film would have to do to be widely appealing. No matter how it’s received critically, this could bring out the type of audience who doesn’t go to the movies anymore and could be closer to “Bohemian Rhapsody“ as a contender than any other musical biopic has been as of late.
As for “Disclosure Day,“ the Spielberg name is certainly a hefty one, but it’s been over forty years since his last sci-fi film was an awards contender. There seems to be two Spielberg modes: prestige Steven and blockbuster Steve. With this being a pure summer blockbuster, it’s fair to assume it’ll contend for at most a few techs, falling in with company like “Minority Report“ and “War of the Worlds.“ With the legendary John Williams conducting the score, we can at least pencil him in for a name check nomination for Best Original Score, perhaps as close to a lock for an Oscar nomination we can get at least a year out, other than “Dune: Part Three“ for Best Visual Effects.
We are still at the beginning of the year, and it always seems like there is an infinite number of Best Picture contenders. However, the sheer number of blockbuster options this far out is unusual, especially given how widely they are predicted on the Awards Expert app. While there can always be surprises in how the films shake out quality-wise, it’s fun to speculate on the potential paths each film could take.
Have you seen “Project Hail Mary” yet? If so, what did you think of it? Do you think it will e nominated for Best Picture? if so, how many other blockbuster films do you expect will join it? Please let us know in the comments section below or on Next Best Picture’s X account.
