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Friday, February 23, 2024

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My 2021 Golden Globe Winner Predictions

As expected, Netflix received the most Golden Globe nominations with a whopping 42. But how many wins will this translate to? Keep in mind that the Golden Globes love to spread the wealth around, which could lead to some surprises.

Let me remind everyone that the Hollywood Foreign Press tends to award a film or series with their main prize, plus another win. Meaning, if your film or television series is going to be crowned the winner, typically a performer, or on the film side, the director or writer will also win. For example, on the film side, last year the Drama winner “1917” also won Best Director (Sam Mendes) and the Comedy winner “Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood” also picked up Best Supporting Actor (Brad Pitt) and Best Screenplay. On the television side, the Drama winner “Succession” picked up Drama TV Actor (Brian Cox), the Comedy winner “Fleabag” also took Comedy TV Actress (Phoebe Waller-Bridge) and the Limited Series/TV Movie winner “Chernobyl” took home TV Supporting Actor (Stellan Skarsgård).

A few more thoughts to keep in mind when making your Golden Globe predictions: Two wins is considered a lot on either the film or television side. A film doesn’t want to rack up too many wins as it will put a target on the film’s back. Three is a good number. Any more and your film could risk running out of steam come Oscar night (“La La Land” won seven Golden Globes and only six Oscars, not including Best Picture).

​So where does that leave us this year? Click below to see my predictions for this year’s Golden Globe Awards.

Best Motion Picture, Drama
The Father
Promising Young Woman
The Trial of the Chicago 7

Winner: The Trial of the Chicago 7
Runner-Up: Nomadland
Most likely to upset: Mank

Thoughts: Aaron Sorkin’s “The Trial of the Chicago 7” should use the Globes to come out as the Oscar frontrunner with a Globe win for Best Drama. Helping “Nomadland” and “Promising Young Woman” is the fact that they’re not associated with Netflix and they each have director, acting and writing nominations. Should the HFPA decide to be bold though, look for them to go for the highly stylized “Mank” which leads in nominations.

Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture, Drama
Riz Ahmed – “Sound of Metal
Chadwick Boseman – “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Anthony Hopkins – “The Father
Gary Oldman – “Mank
Tahar Rahim – “The Mauritanian

Winner: Anthony Hopkins – “The Father
Runner-Up: Chadwick Boseman – “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Most likely to upset: Riz Ahmed – “Sound of Metal”

Thoughts: Believe it or not but Hopkins has never won a competitive Golden Globe. Hopkins’ Oscar-winning performance in “The Silence of the Lambs” lost the Globe to Nick Nolte in “The Prince of Tides” (1991). While the sentiment may be in Boseman’s favor, this could be too good of an opportunity to pass up in awarding the 83 year old legend at long last. But look out for Ahmed, who physically transforms and carries “Sound of Metal.”

Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture, Drama
Viola Davis – “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Andra Day – “The United States vs. Billie Holiday
Vanessa Kirby – “Pieces of a Woman
Frances McDormand – “Nomadland
Carey Mulligan – “Promising Young Woman

Winner: Carey Mulligan – “Promising Young Woman
Runner-Up: Viola Davis – “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Most likely to upset: Frances McDormand – “Nomadland

Thoughts:  The Globes have never really loved either Davis or McDormand despite their most recent wins. Seeing as how they both won recently, this gives Mulligan an opportunity to establish herself as the Oscar frontrunner. But the Globes snubbed Halle Berry for “Monster’s Ball” (2001) on her way to a historic Oscar—the first for an African American actress. If they believe Davis is about to be the second African American to win Best Actress at the Oscars, they may decide to deviate from their typical winner and award her instead. 

Best Motion Picture, Musical or Comedy
Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
Palm Springs
The Prom

Winner: Hamilton
Runner-Up: Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
Most likely to upset: The Prom

Thoughts: None of the five Best Picture Comedy/Musical nominees have any chance of receiving an Oscar nomiantion for Best Picture which leaves this race wide open. The original “Borat” (2006) lost to “Dreamgirls,” and the sequel could experience déjà vu losing to the hit musical “Hamilton.” Lin-Manuel Miranda’s musical does have a weakness though, as it’s a taped version of the Broadway Musical and not an adaptation like “Dreamgirls” was. Be on the lookout then for Globes favorite Ryan Murphy to possible spoil.

Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture, Musical or Comedy
Sacha Baron Cohen – “Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
James Corden – “The Prom
Lin-Manuel Miranda – “Hamilton
Dev Patel – “The Personal History of David Copperfield
Andy Samberg – “Palm Springs

Winner: Lin-Manuel Miranda – “Hamilton
Runner-Up: Sacha Baron Cohen – “Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
Most likely to upset: James Corden – “The Prom

Thoughts: With none of the nominees having any chance of translating a win into an Oscar nomination, this category is anyone’s game. Baron Cohen won for the original “Borat” (2006). But will they give the sequel two acting awards and not Best Comedy/Musical Picture? Lookout for mega global superstar Miranda to upset on the strength of his hit musical.

Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture, Musical or Comedy
Maria Bakalova – “Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
Kate Hudson – “Music
Michelle Pfeiffer – “French Exit
Rosamund Pike – “I Care a Lot
Anya Taylor-Joy – “Emma

Winner: Maria Bakalova – “Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
Runner-Up: Michelle Pfeiffer – “French Exit
Most likely to upset: Anya Taylor-Joy – “Emma

Thoughts: The Globes shocked us all again by snubbing their favorite actress Meryl Streep (“The Prom“). With Streep out of the way, look for Bakalova to win this easily, as she’s the only one in the category with any prospects of receiving an Oscar nomination—albeit in the Supporting category.

Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role in any Motion Picture
Sacha Baron Cohen – “The Trial of the Chicago 7
Daniel Kaluuya – “Judas and the Black Messiah
Jared Leto – “The Little Things
Billy Murray – “On the Rocks
Leslie Odom Jr. – “One Night In Miami

Winner: Sacha Baron Cohen – “The Trial of the Chicago 7
Runner-Up: Leslie Odom Jr. – “One Night In Miami
Most likely to upset: Daniel Kaluuya – “Judas and the Black Messiah

Thoughts: This is the closest race, and whoever wins this will see the momentum shift in his favor. The irony is that all three of the frontrunners portray real-life people, which is usually a recipe for success when it comes to winning awards. Baron Cohen received two nominations from the Globes this year and it’s highly unlikely he will go home empty-handed., Depending on how much love they show “The Trial of the Chicago 7,” he could easily go along for the ride.

Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role in any Motion Picture
Glenn Close – “Hillbilly Elegy
Olivia Colman – “The Father
Jodie Foster – “The Mauritanian
Amanda Seyfried – “Mank
Helena Zengel – “News of the World

Winner: Glenn Close – “Hillbilly Elegy
Runner-Up: Olivia Colman – “The Father
Most likely to upset: Amanda Seyfried – “Mank

Thoughts: Ever since Seyfried was snubbed at the SAG Awards, her momentum has appeared to have flatlined. This gives Close a chance to once again establish herself as the one to beat. But Close will need to be on the lookout for a past rival and Globe favorite, Olivia Colman, who could easily upset.

Best Director, Motion Picture
Emerald Fennell – “Promising Young Woman
David Fincher – “Mank
Regina King – “One Night In Miami
Aaron Sorkin – “The Trial of the Chicago 7
Chloé Zhao – “Nomadland

Winner: Chloe Zhao – “Nomadland
Runner-Up: David Fincher – “Mank
Most likely to upset: Regina King – “One Night In Miami

Thoughts: With three women nominated, the Golden Globes seem poised to add another female director alongside their current sole winner Barbra Streisand for “The Prince of Tides” (1991). Zhao appears to have the edge. Be on the lookout for King though, like Streisand, she’s a past acting winner and the HFPA loves celebrities.

Best Screenplay, Motion Picture
Emerald Fennell – “Promising Young Woman
Jack Fincher – “Mank
Aaron Sorkin – “The Trial of the Chicago 7
Florian Zeller and Christopher Hampton – “The Father
Chloé Zhao – “Nomadland

Winner: The Trial of the Chicago 7
Runner-Up: Promising Young Woman
Most likely to upset: Mank

Thoughts: Sorkin should easily take this category with a script that is as good as it gets (it also helps that he has, like Tarantino last year, won this category two times before). Luckily for “Mank” and “Nomadland,” they should live to fight another day at the Oscars in the Best Adapted Screenplay lineup.

Best Motion Picture, Animated
The Croods: A New Age
Over the Moon

Winner: Soul
Runner-Up: Wolfwalkers
Most likely to upset: Over the Moon

Thoughts: First stop on the way to an Oscar for “Soul.” This should be almost a given.

Best Motion Picture, Foreign Language
Another Round” ***
“La Llorona” ***
The Life Ahead
Two Of Us” ***

Winner: Minari
Runner-Up: Another Round
Most likely to upset: The Life Ahead

*** Eligible to compete at the Oscars for Best International Film

Thoughts: Only one American film–Clint Eastwood’s “Letters from Iwo Jima” (2006), was able to win this category. After the controversy of “Minari’s” placement, they should keep themselves on the Oscar radar by picking up a win. However, if the HFPA is in the mood to predict the Oscars, they may go with the presumed frontrunner from Denmark, “Another Round.”

Best Original Score, Motion Picture
Alexandre Desplat – “The Midnight Sky
Ludwig Göransson – “Tenet
James Newton Howard – “News of the World
Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross – “Mank
Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross and Jon Batiste – “Soul

Winner: Soul
Runner-Up: Mank
Most likely to upset: “Tenet

Thoughts: This and the larger Oscar race is Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross for “Mank” vs. Reznor, Ross, and Jon Batiste for “Soul.” The latter looks to have the edge but we’ll see if they can keep the momentum up heading into Oscar Sunday. 

Best Original Song, Motion Picture
“Fight For You” – “Judas and the Black Messiah
“Hear My Voice” – “The Trial of the Chicago 7
“Io Sì (Seen)” – “The Life Ahead
“Speak Now” – “One Night In Miami
“Tigress & Tweed” – “The United States vs. Billie Holiday

Winner: “Speak Now” – “One Night In Miami” – Leslie Odom Jr. and Sam Ashworth
Runner-Up: “Tigress and Tweed” – “The United States vs. Billie Holiday” – Raphael Saadiq and Andra Day
Most likely to upset: “Io Si (Seen)” – “The Life Ahead” – Diane Warren, Niccolò Agliardi and Laura Pausini

Thoughts: For either Odom Jr. or Day, this could be seen as a consolation for not winning their in respective acting races. Here’s hoping that if there’s an upset, the scale tips in Warren’s favor, giving her a little glimmer of momentum on her way to the Kodak Theater and possibly her first Oscar win with a total eleven nominations throughout her career.

On the television side, “The Crown” season four received an impressive five acting nominations—more than any other series or film nominated. However, before the performers start planning their acceptance speeches, there’s a slight hiccup that could prevent their Globes glory. Only Claire Foy and Olivia Colman have prevailed for their performances as Queen Elizabeth II. Jon Lithgow, Helena Bonham Carter, and Tobias Menzies have all gone home empty-handed otherwise. So where does that leave us?

Best TV Drama Series
“The Crown”
“Lovecraft Country”
“The Mandalorian”

Winner: “The Crown”
Runner-Up: “The Mandalorian”
Most likely to upset: “Lovecraft Country”

Thoughts:  In a COVID year, look for past favorite “The Crown” to once again prevail. If the HFPA has their heart set on awarding a new show, look for “The Mandalorian” to try and use its Jedi mind tricks to take the trophy home.

Best TV Drama Actor
Jason Bateman – “Ozark”
Josh O’Connor – “The Crown”
Bob Odenkirk – “Better Call Saul”
Al Pacino – “Hunters”
Matthew Rhys – “Perry Mason”

Winner: Al Pacino – “Hunters”
Runner-Up: Josh O’Connor – “The Crown”
Most likely to upset: Jason Bateman – “Ozark”

Thoughts: This category is completely up in the air and any of the five have a legitimate chance of winning. Since this category is wide open for an upset, look out for a Hollywood legend, Pacino, to pull off a win.

Best TV Drama Actress
Olivia Colman – “The Crown”
Jodie Comer – “Killing Eve”
Emma Corrin – “The Crown”
Laura Linney – “Ozark”
Sarah Paulson – “Ratched”

Winner: Olivia Colman – “The Crown”
Runner-Up: Emma Corrin – “The Crown”
Most likely to upset: Laura Linney – “Ozark”

Thoughts: Colman is one of the HFPA’s favorite actresses recently, with three wins on both the television and film side. This may be the easiest place to award her but she’ll have to watch out for her costar Corrin and her portrayal as Princess Diana.

Best TV Comedy/Musical Series
“Emily in Paris”
“The Flight Attendant”
“The Great”
“Schitt’s Creek”
“Ted Lasso”

Winner: “Schitt’s Creek”
Runner-Up: “Ted Lasso”
Most likely to upset: “The Flight Attendant”

Thoughts: “Fleabag” competed for its final season last year and easily followed up its Emmy win with a Golden Globe. But unlike “Fleabag,” “Schitt’s Creek” faces some serious competition from new shows looking to make their mark. Also hanging over “Schitt’s Creek” is the possibility that the Globes don’t want to rubber-stamp the recent Emmy champ—”Schitt’s Creek” made history as the first Comedy or Drama series to win the top seven awards. I’m banking on the fact that the Globes won’t want to look out of date and will award “Schitt’s Creek” almost begrudgingly. Should they decide not to, look out for “Ted Lasso” to score the top prize.

Best TV Comedy/Musical Actor
Don Cheadle – “Black Monday”
Nicholas Hoult – “The Great”
Eugene Levy – “Schitt’s Creek”
Jason Sudekis – “Ted Lasso”
Ramy Youssef – “Ramy”

Winner: Jason Sudekis – “Ted Lasso”
Runner-Up: Nicholas Hoult – “The Great”
Most likely to upset: Eugene Levy – “Schitt’s Creek”

Thoughts: Believe it or not, this is one of the most competitive races on the television side with three legitimate potential winners. Sudekis will hope to use a Globe win as his opportunity to establish himself as the Emmy frontrunner. Levy could easily follow up his Emmy win with a Golden Globe. But be on the lookout for Holt; they’ve been following his career since he was the adorable kid in “About a Boy” (2002) and his over-the-top, scenery-chewing performance as Emperor Peter of Russia could be too hard to resist.  

Best TV Comedy/Musical Actress
Lily Collins – “Emily in Paris”
Kaley Cuoco – “The Flight Attendant”
Elle Fanning – “The Great”
Catherine O’Hara – “Schitt’s Creek”
Jane Levy – “Zoey’s Extraordinary Playlist”

Winner: Catherine O’Hara – “Schitt’s Creek”
Runner-Up: Kaley Cuoco – “The Flight Attendant”
Most likely to upset: Jane Levy – “Zoey’s Extraordinary Playlist”

Thoughts: The HFPA may not award “Schitt’s Creek” with a series win or Levy in Best TV Comedy Actor, but they would look really out of touch if they ignored the comic genius of O’Hara and her masterful, hilarious portrayal of Moira Rose. With “Musical” in the category title, this could help Levy pull off a jaw-dropping upset. 

Best Limited Series/TV Movie
“Normal People”
“The Queen’s Gambit”
“Small Axe”
“The Undoing”

Winner: “The Queen’s Gambit”
Runner-Up: “Small Axe”
Most likely to upset: “The Undoing”

Thoughts: The Limited Series/TV Movie races are always fun as series that have already competed at the Emmys overlap with those making their awards debut. The Globes like to be the first to award a series or performer. Only one series has entered the zeitgeist this year–”The Queen’s Gambit”– but HBO’s “The Undoing” has four nominations and will try to make its presence as a serious contender known. Why beat around the bush though? There isn’t a series that has been as popular as “The Queen’s Gambit.” It should easily take home the top prize. The rest of the competition should resign now.

Best Limited Series/TV Movie Actor
Bryan Cranston – “Your Honor”
Jeff Daniels – “The Comey Rule”
Hugh Grant – “The Undoing”
Ethan Hawke, “The Good Lord Bird”
Mark Ruffalo, “I Know This Much is True”

Winner: Hugh Grant – “The Undoing”
Runner-Up: Ethan Hawke – “The Good Lord Bird”
Most likely to upset: Mark Ruffalo – “I Know This Much is True”

Thoughts:  With four nominations, it’s unlikely that “The Undoing” will go home empty-handed. As a suspected murderer, Grant uses the natural charm that made him famous for romcoms in a very memorable role. Grant has been on a career comeback in the past few years and this should be his crowning achievement in this highly competitive category.

Best Limited Series/TV Movie Actress
Cate Blanchett – “Mrs. America”
Daisy Edgar-Jones – “Normal People”
Shira Haas – “Unorthodox”
Nicole Kidman – “The Undoing”
Anya Taylor- Joy – “The Queen’s Gambit”

Winner: Anya Taylor- Joy – “The Queen’s Gambit”
Runner-Up: Shira Haas – “Unorthodox”
Most likely to upset: Nicole Kidman – “The Undoing”

Thoughts: Poor Haas. After she lost the Emmy, her Globe prospects looked better…that was until “The Queen’s Gambit” made Taylor-Joy an overnight megastar. Helping Taylor-Joy’s prospects, she’s double nominated with Best Comedy/Musical Actress for “Emma.” I believe that’s checkmate.

Best TV Supporting Actor
John Boyega – “Small Axe”
Brendan Gleeson – “The Comey Rule”
Dan Levy – “Schitt’s Creek”
Jim Parsons – “Hollywood”
Donald Sutherland – “The Undoing”

Winner: Dan Levy – “Schitt’s Creek”
Runner-Up: John Boyega – “Small Axe”
Most likely to upset: Donald Sutherland – “The Undoing”

Thoughts: Four of the nominees are from a Limited Series’, which allows Levy to stand out. But the Globes rarely award comedic performances–the last to do so was Chris Colfer for “Glee” a decade ago (2011). If not Levy, look out for Boyega’s powerful performance in “Small Axe” to take home the prize and a poignant acceptance speech. But don’t rule out Donald Sutherland and his commanding performance and memorable monologue to potentially stage an upset. Sutherland has won this category twice previously and another win would tie the record for most wins with three currently held by Ed Asner.

Best TV Supporting Actress
Gillian Anderson – “The Crown”
Helena Bonham Carter – “The Crown”
Julia Garner – “Ozark”
Annie Murphy – “Schitt’s Creek”
Cynthia Nixon – “Ratched”

Winner: Gillian Anderson – “The Crown”
Runner-Up: Annie Murphy – “Schitt’s Creek”
Most likely to upset: Julia Garner – “Ozark”

Thoughts: Anderson seems undeniable for her performance as Great Britain’s first woman Prime Minister, Margaret Thatcher (aka The Iron Lady). But so did John Lithgow as Winston Churchill in the first season of “The Crown” or Helena Bonham Carter as Princess Margaret. Are we overly confident once again? Or will Anderson be the one to finally breakthrough? Murphy, like her onscreen brother, Levy, is in a similar situation–the last to win this category for a Comedy was Jane Lynch for “Glee” a decade ago (2011). Maybe they’ll be the next duo of costars to sweep the Supporting Races. If not, look out for Garner, who’s proven to have luck on her side more than once.

What do you think of my predictions? Let us know in the comments section below or on our Twitter account. Be sure to listen to our latest episode of Next Best Series here, where we talked at length about our television predictions and the latest episode of the Next Best Picture Podcast where members of the team gave their film predictions.

You can follow Amanda and hear more of her thoughts on the Oscars and Film on Twitter at @msamandaspears

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