The New York Film Festival has long been a respected film festival for its cinephile-focused programming, which pulls many of the best films from all over the world from other festivals earlier in the year (and throws in a few world premieres) to showcase the year in cinema over two glorious weeks on the Upper West Side of Manhattan. Opening with Luis Buñuel’s Mexican classic “The Exterminating Angel” in 1963, the festival has programmed arthouse and critically acclaimed films that have simultaneously entertained and challenged moviegoers with their daring perspectives and impeccable craft. While many of their Opening and Closing night selections went on to receive a Best International Feature Oscar nomination, Best Director, or any of the other Academy Award nominations, it wasn’t until the 19th New York Film Festival in 1981 that the Opening Night film “Chariots Of Fire” would become the first film also to be nominated for the Academy Award for Best Picture (It would eventually go on to win the Oscar). “The Big Chill” (1983), “The Piano” (1993), “Pulp Fiction” (1994), “Secrets & Lies” (1996), “Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon” (2000), “Mystic River” (2003), “Sideways ” (2004), “Good Night, and Good Luck” (2005), “The Queen” (2006), and “No Country For Old Men” (2007) would follow in the years. While the Academy has always had its doors open to embrace more arthouse and international films, this, as you can see above, has steadily increased, resulting in the New York Film Festival becoming an important stop on the big four fall film festival circuit (Venice, Telluride, Toronto, and New York).
Since the Best Picture race at the Academy Awards extended to ten in 2009, there have been a total of 146 Best Picture nominees. Forty-two of them screened at the New York Film Festival (29%), and while we don’t yet know the full lineup for this year’s 63rd edition of the festival, we do know what will be the Opening, Centerpiece, or Closing Night films. Luca Guadagnino’s “After The Hunt,” Jim Jarmusch’s “Father Mother Sister Brother,” and Bradley Cooper’s “Is This Thing On?” respectively.
Here are the films that screened in each of these three slots at the New York Film Festival since 2009 up until last year:
2009
Opening Night: Wild Grass (Alain Resnais)
Centerpiece: Precious: Based on the Novel “Push” by Sapphire (Lee Daniels)
Closing Night: Broken Embraces (Pedro Almodóvar)
2010
Opening Night: The Social Network (David Fincher)
Centerpiece: The Tempest (Julie Taymor)
Closing Night: Hereafter (Clint Eastwood)
2011
Opening Night: Carnage (Roman Polanski)
Centerpiece: My Week With Marilyn (Simon Curtis)
Closing Night: The Descendants (Alexander Payne)
2012
Opening Night: Life Of Pi (Ang Lee)
Centerpiece: Not Fade Away (David Chase)
Closing Night: Flight (Robert Zemeckis)
2013
Opening Night: Captain Phillips (Paul Greengrass)
Centerpiece: The Secret Life Of Walter Mitty (Ben Stiller)
Closing Night: Her (Spike Jonze)
2014
Opening Night: Gone Girl (David Fincher)
Centerpiece: Inherent Vice (Paul Thomas Anderson)
Closing Night: Birdman, or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance) (Alejandro González Iñárritu)
2015
Opening Night: The Walk (Robert Zemeckis)
Centerpiece: Steve Jobs (Danny Boyle)
Closing Night: Miles Ahead (Don Cheadle)
2016
Opening Night: 13th (Ava DuVernay)
Centerpiece: 20th Century Women (Mike Mills)
Closing Night: The Lost City Of Z (James Gray)
2017
Opening Night: Last Flag Flying (Richard Linklater)
Centerpiece: Wonderstruck (Todd Haynes)
Closing Night: Wonder Wheel (Woody Allen)
2018
Opening Night: The Favourite (Yorgos Lanthimos)
Centerpiece: Roma (Alfonso Cuarón)
Closing Night: At Eternity’s Gate (Julian Schnabel)
2019
Opening Night: The Irishman (Martin Scorsese)
Centerpiece: Marriage Story (Noah Baumbach)
Closing Night: Motherless Brooklyn (Edward Norton)
2020
Opening Night: Lovers Rock (Steve McQueen)
Centerpiece: Nomadland (Chloé Zhao)
Closing Night: French Exit (Azazel Jacobs)
2021
Opening Night: The Tragedy Of Macbeth (Joel Coen)
Centerpiece: The Power Of The Dog (Jane Campion)
Closing Night: Parallel Mothers (Pedro Almodóvar)
2022
Opening Night: White Noise (Noah Baumbach)
Centerpiece: All The Beauty And The Bloodshed (Laura Poitras)
Closing Night: The Inspection (Elegance Bratton)
2023
Opening Night: May December (Todd Haynes)
Centerpiece: Priscilla (Sofia Coppola)
Closing Night: Ferrari (Michael Mann)
2024
Opening Night: Nickel Boys (RaMell Ross)
Centerpiece: The Room Next Door (Pedro Almodóvar)
Closing Night: Blitz (Steve McQueen)
2025
Opening Night: After The Hunt (Luca Guadagnino)
Centerpiece: Father Mother Sister Brother (Jim Jarmusch)
Closing Night: Is This Thing On? (Bradley Cooper)
Of the last sixteen years (2009-2024), eleven of those had at least one Best Picture nominee play in the Opening, Centerpiece, or Closing Night slots at the New York Film Festival: 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, and 2024.
Of those eleven years, there were a total of fourteen films nominated for Best Picture:
Precious: Based on the Novel “Push” by Sapphire (Centerpiece)
The Social Network (Opening)
The Descendants (Closing)
Life Of Pi (Opening)
Captain Phillips (Opening)
Her (Closing)
Birdman, or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance) (Closing)
The Favourite (Opening)
Roma (Centerpiece)
The Irishman (Opening)
Marriage Story (Centerpiece)
Nomadland (Centerpiece)
The Power Of The Dog (Centerpiece)
Nickel Boys (Opening)
This means NYFF has a 29% chance of one of its main slotted films finding its way into a Best Picture lineup. Of those fourteen films, five were world premieres at NYFF:
The Social Network (Opening)
Life Of Pi (Opening)
Captain Phillips (Opening)
Her (Closing)
The Irishman (Opening)
So, when looking at “Is This Thing On?’s” chances of being nominated for Best Picture as a world premiere at NYFF, it has a 10% chance overall as a world premiere and a 2% chance as a world premiere in the Closing Night slot. “After The Hunt” and “Father Mother Sister Brother” are not world premieres at this year’s NYFF. So when looking at “After The Hunt’s” chances for getting in overall as an Opening Night film at NYFF, it’s a 43% chance. But for an Opening Night film at NYFF that’s not a world premiere; it’s only a 14% chance. “Father Mother Sister Brother,” as a Centerpiece film, has a 36% chance of making it into Best Picture, and since none of the other films were world premieres, this one’s lack of a world premiere won’t affect its chances.
It’s also important to note the studios from which these Best Picture nominees came. Notably, MUBI received its first Best Picture nomination last year for “The Substance,” which didn’t screen at NYFF, so there’s not much data to draw from for Jarmusch’s “Father Mother Sister Brother.” And Amazon MGM only has last year’s “Nickel Boys” as a precedent of an NYFF Opening/Centerpiece/Closing title making it into Best Picture (“Manchester By The Sea” was part of the Main Slate in 2016). So, really, all eyes turn towards Searchlight Pictures, which is distributing “Is This Thing On?.” Since 2009, they’ve been able to get the following into Best Picture in one of these slots:
The Descendants (Closing)
Birdman, or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance) (Closing)
The Favourite (Opening)
Nomadland (Centerpiece)
So, this would result in a better 29% chance overall of “Is This Thing On?” making it in as a world premiere at NYFF but the distribtutor has never had a world premiere in the Closing slot go on to be nominated for Best Picture since the four above all premiered at either Telluride or Venice before making their NYFF screenings. Overall, Searchlight has also successfully secured nominations for “Poor Things” and “12 Years A Slave” in the Best Picture category after screening at NYFF, along with the five others listed above, indicating a relatively strong track record compared to some other studios. Don’t rule out Cooper’s film just yet!
It should be taken into account that the New York Film Festival will likely give us at least one Best Picture nominee overall and up to five, as set by a new record last year. It is yet another sign of the Academy’s growing membership becoming more international and aligning with a festival such as New York’s taste, which has traditionally leaned more international and arthouse.
2024: Anora, The Brutalist, Emilia Perez, I’m Still Here & Nickel Boys
2023: Anatomy Of A Fall, Maestro, Poor Things & The Zone Of Interest
2022: Tár, Triangle Of Sadness & Women Talking
2021: Drive My Car, Dune & The Power Of The Dog
2020: Nomadland
2019: The Irishman, Joker, Marriage Story & Parasite
2018: The Favourite & Roma
2017: Call Me By Your Name & Lady Bird
2016: Manchester By The Sea & Moonlight
2015: Bridge Of Spies & Brooklyn
2014: Birdman & Whiplash
2013: 12 Years A Slave, Captain Phillips, Her & Nebraska
2012: Amour, Life Of Pi & Lincoln
2011: The Artist, The Descendants & Hugo
2010: The Social Network
2009: Precious
So, even if the chances of one of the three main slotted films are not as great as the festival programming an eventual Best Picture nominee overall, there’s still a chance either “After The Hunt,” “Father Mother Sister Brother,” and/or “After The Hunt” find their way into the lineup. Interestingly enough, 2013, 2018, and 2019 were years where even 2/3 slots found their way into a Best Picture lineup, giving us a 27% chance that may happen again this year. Personally, if I were to select one, I’d probably go with “After The Hunt” since it has a star-studded cast and Luca Guadagnino is due to have another Best Picture nominee following “Call Me By Your Name.”
Meanwhile, Searchlight has the better track record and Cooper has managed to get his previous two films into the Best Picture race (“A Star Is Born” and “Maestro“). But with Searchlight premiering another one of their contenders, “Rental Family,” at TIFF and Cooper coming off of two back-to-back exhausting campaigns for his previous two directorial efforts, it would make sense by all of averages for that streak to take a break while Searchlight could still land in the race overall with Hikari’s film. Perhaps they can land both in the final ten? They’ve successfully done it before in 2010 (“Black Swan” & “127 Hours“), 2011 (“The Tree Of Life” & “The Descendants“), 2014 (“The Grand Budapest Hotel” & “Birdman, or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)” and 2017 (“Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri” & “The Shape Of Water“). And in case if you have any initial doubts as to why “Is This Thing On?” isn’t premiering at Venice, Telluride or TIFF, as per Searchlight the film was not going to be ready in time to make either of these dates so the later premiere of October 10th made the most sense to buy Bradley Cooper some more time. So instead of wondering “Is This Thing On?,” it appears the answer is it very much still is as Searchlight prepares to roll up its sleeves for another awards season.
There are still more additions to this year’s lineup set to be announced. Potential films that could be part of the festival’s Main Slate or Spotlight sections that have been predicted for a Best Picture nomination in these early days include “Sentimental Value,” “Jay Kelly,” “No Other Choice,” “Bugonia,” “It Was Just An Accident,” “A House Of Dynamite,” “Hamnet,” and “The Secret Agent.” Will any of these be announced for NYFF in the coming days? Is there a secret contender waiting to emerge that no one is discussing yet? Could Josh Safdie’s “Marty Supreme,” which was rumored to be skipping the four major fall film festivals, still make a surprise appearance at NYFF either in the Spotlight section or as a Work In Progress screening? Anything is still possible at this stage, and that’s what makes it all so exciting.
What are you hoping will be announced for this year’s NYFF Main Slate? What do you think of the three films the festival has chosen so far and their Best Picture chances? Please let us know in the comments section below and on Next Best Picture’s X account and check out the team’s latest Oscar predictions here.
