Every year, the Best Documentary Feature race feels like one of the most unpredictable categories on the Oscar ballot. But, when you look closer, a clear pattern emerges. Over the last sixteen years, one festival has quietly dominated the category, shaping the conversation before most awards pundits even start their Oscar predictions: the Sundance Film Festival. With the release of “The Perfect Neighbor” on Netflix this past weekend, an independent documentary which had its world premiere at Sundance, it got me wondering: “How many of the Oscar nominees for Best Documentary Feature come from Sundance?” After analyzing all 80 Oscar-nominated documentaries from 2009 to 2024, the trend is pretty apparent.
Here is the full breakdown of the last 16 years of nominees for Best Documentary Feature and where they had their world premieres…
2009 (82nd Academy Awards)
Burma VJ – (CPH:DOX)
The Cove – (Newport Beach International Film Festival)
Food, Inc. – (Toronto International Film Festival)
The Most Dangerous Man in America: Daniel Ellsberg and the Pentagon Papers – (Toronto International Film Festival)
Which Way Home – (Tribeca Festival)
2010 (83rd Academy Awards)
Exit Through the Gift Shop – (Sundance Film Festival)
Gasland – (Sundance Film Festival)
Inside Job – (Cannes Film Festival)
Restrepo – (Sundance Film Festival)
Waste Land – (Sundance Film Festival)
2011 (84th Academy Awards)
Hell and Back Again – (Sundance Film Festival)
If a Tree Falls: A Story of the Earth Liberation Front – (Sundance Film Festival)
Paradise Lost 3: Purgatory – (Toronto International Film Festival)
Pina – (Berlin International Film Festival)
Undefeated – (SXSW Film Festival)
2012 (85th Academy Awards)
5 Broken Cameras – (IDFA Film Festival)
The Gatekeepers – (Telluride Film Festival)
How to Survive a Plague – (Sundance Film Festival)
The Invisible War – (Sundance Film Festival)
Searching for Sugar Man – (Sundance Film Festival)
2013 (86th Academy Awards)
The Act of Killing – (Telluride Film Festival)
Cutie and the Boxer – (Sundance Film Festival)
Dirty Wars – (Sundance Film Festival)
The Square – (Sundance Film Festival)
20 Feet from Stardom – (Sundance Film Festival)
2014 (87th Academy Awards)
Citizenfour – (New York Film Festival)
Finding Vivian Maier – (Toronto International Film Festival)
Last Days in Vietnam – (Sundance Film Festival)
The Salt of the Earth – (Cannes Film Festival)
Virunga – (Tribeca Festival)
2015 (88th Academy Awards)
Amy – (Cannes Film Festival)
Cartel Land – (Sundance Film Festival)
The Look of Silence – (Venice Film Festival)
What Happened, Miss Simone? – (Sundance Film Festival)
Winter on Fire: Ukraine’s Fight for Freedom – (Venice Film Festival)
2016 (89th Academy Awards)
Fire at Sea – (Berlin International Film Festival)
I Am Not Your Negro – (Toronto International Film Festival)
Life, Animated – (Sundance Film Festival)
O.J.: Made in America – (Sundance Film Festival)
13th – (New York Film Festival)
2017 (90th Academy Awards)
Abacus: Small Enough to Jail – (Toronto International Film Festival)
Faces Places – (Cannes Film Festival)
Icarus – (Sundance Film Festival)
Last Men in Aleppo – (Sundance Film Festival)
Strong Island – (Sundance Film Festival)
2018 (91st Academy Awards)
Free Solo – (Telluride Film Festival)
Hale County This Morning, This Evening – (Sundance Film Festival)
Minding the Gap – (Sundance Film Festival)
Of Fathers and Sons – (IDFA Film Festival)
RBG – (Sundance Film Festival)
2019 (92nd Academy Awards)
American Factory – (Sundance Film Festival)
The Cave – (Toronto International Film Festival)
The Edge of Democracy – (Sundance Film Festival)
For Sama – (SXSW Film Festival)
Honeyland – (Sundance Film Festival)
2020 (93rd Academy Awards)
Collective – (Venice Film Festival)
Crip Camp – (Sundance Film Festival)
The Mole Agent – (Sundance Film Festival)
My Octopus Teacher – (Doc Against Gravity Film Festival)
Time – (Sundance Film Festival)
2021 (94th Academy Awards)
Ascension – (Tribeca Festival)
Attica – (Toronto International Film Festival)
Flee – (Sundance Film Festival)
Summer of Soul (…Or, When the Revolution Could Not Be Televised) – (Sundance Film Festival)
Writing with Fire – (Sundance Film Festival)
2022 (95th Academy Awards)
All That Breathes – (Sundance Film Festival)
All the Beauty and the Bloodshed – (Venice Film Festival)
Fire of Love – (Sundance Film Festival)
A House Made of Splinters – (Sundance Film Festival)
Navalny – (Sundance Film Festival)
2023 (96th Academy Awards)
20 Days in Mariupol – (Sundance Film Festival)
The Eternal Memory – (Sundance Film Festival)
Four Daughters – (Cannes Film Festival)
To Kill a Tiger – (Toronto International Film Festival)
Bobi Wine: The People’s President – (Venice Film Festival)
2024 (97th Academy Awards)
Black Box Diaries – (Sundance Film Festival)
No Other Land – (Berlin International Film Festival)
Porcelain War – (Sundance Film Festival)
Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat – (Sundance Film Festival)
Sugarcane – (Sundance Film Festival)
Here’s how the breakdown looks across those sixteen years:
Sundance Film Festival: 43 nominees (≈3 per year)
Toronto International Film Festival (TIFF): 9 nominees (≈0.5 per year)
Venice Film Festival: 5 nominees (≈0.3 per year)
Cannes Film Festival: 5 nominees (≈0.3 per year)
Telluride, Tribeca, Berlin: 3-4 each (≈0.2 per year)
Other festivals (NYFF, SXSW, IDFA, CPH:DOX, etc.): a handful total
That means nearly 60% of all documentary Oscar nominees over the past decade and a half debuted at the Sundance Film Festival, which is an astonishing level of consistency for any category in the Oscar race.
There are a few key reasons why Sundance continues to be the main source for Best Documentary Feature nominees:
- Timing – Sundance’s January slot gives its films the entire year to build momentum, from critical acclaim to awards campaigns. By the time fall hits, Sundance docs often feel like old favorites rather than newcomers looking to crash the party.
- Taste Alignment – The Academy’s Documentary Branch has increasingly favored emotionally intimate, socially conscious storytelling, which is exactly the kind of work Sundance programs best. Lately, they’ve also been favoring international titles which Sundance also provides in its World Cinema programming.
- Industry Preference – Streamers and distributors (Netflix, Hulu, Apple TV+, National Geographic) often acquire their nonfiction Oscar hopefuls straight out of Park City, ensuring these titles get both visibility and longevity with very carefully laid out (and expensive) campaigns months in advance.
It’s no coincidence that in recent years, Oscar winners like “Summer of Soul (…Or, When the Revolution Could Not Be Televised)”, “Navalny”, “American Factory”, “Icarus”, and “20 Days in Mariupol” all premiered at Sundance. That said, not every nominee hails from Park City. The fall film festivals, mainly Venice, Toronto, and Telluride still can provide a crucial launchpad for more globally oriented or artistically ambitious docs.
Films like “All the Beauty and the Bloodshed” (Venice), “The Act of Killing” (Telluride), “Fire at Sea” (Berlin) and last year’s winner “No Other Land” prove that the fall circuit can deliver major contenders, especially those tackling political or humanitarian subjects. But the data is clear: fall festivals typically generate one or two slots per year, while Sundance regularly supplies three or more.
If history repeats itself (and it usually does) this year’s Best Documentary Feature lineup will likely follow the familiar pattern which is…
3 Sundance films
1 from the fall festivals (Venice, TIFF, or Telluride)
1 wildcard (Often an international or late-season discovery)
That “wildcard” slot has been filled in recent years by outliers such as “My Octopus Teacher,” “For Sama,” or “Of Fathers and Sons.” It’s the space where global perspective meets unexpected momentum. When it comes to predicting Best Documentary Feature, the lesson to keep in mind is simple: the Oscar race begins in Park City. Sundance isn’t just a discovery platform, it’s the category’s single most reliable incubator.
So, when predicting which films you think are going to be part of the Best Documentary Feature lineup, having anywhere from 2-4 of your nominees (or 3 to play it safe) be Sundance titles is a great place to start. If you’re looking to get ahead of the curve in forecasting the 98th Academy Awards, start by revisiting the standout nonfiction premieres from Sundance 2025. Odds are, at least half of the eventual nominees, and possibly the winner, were already there.
Contenders from this year include:
2000 Meters to Andriivka
The Alabama Solution
Come See Me in the Good Light
Cutting Through Rocks
Folktales
The Librarians
Life After
Mr. Nobody Against Putin
The Perfect Neighbor
Predators
Seeds
Currently, the Next Best Picture team are collectively predicting the following films for Best Documentary Feature at the 98th Academy Awards:
- The Perfect Neighbor (Sundance)
- 2000 Meters to Andriivka (Sundance)
- Apocalypse In The Tropics (Venice)
- The Alabama Solution (Sundance)
- Cover-Up (Venice)
- Seeds (Sundance)
- Orwell: 2+2=5 (Cannes)
- The Librarians (Sundance)
- Put Your Soul On Your Hand And Walk (Cannes)
- Mr. Nobody Against Putin (Sundance)
So, as you can see. The predictions are very Sundance heavy for all the reasons we’ve been saying. Currently I personally have “The Perfect Neighbor,” “Put Your Soul On Your Hand And Walk,” “The Alabama Solution,” “2000 Meters to Andriivka,” and “Apocalypse In The Tropics” predicted. This would satisfy the average trend of three Sundance titles, one fall film festival title (“Apocalypse In The Tropics” ) and one International title, in this case, from Cannes (“Put Your Soul On Your Hand And Walk“).
“Orwell: 2+2=5” is a strong contender from NEON that had its world premiere at Cannes, but if it wins at the Critics Choice Documentary Awards (CCDA) with its leading 7 nominations, that will automatically give it the “CCDA Curse,” which is if you win at CCDA, your chances of winning the Oscar (or even being nominated) drop drastically. Since the organization’s first ceremony in 2016, only two winners have gone on to win the Oscar (“O.J.: Made in America” and “Summer of Soul (…Or, When the Revolution Could Not Be Televised)“) and seven winners weren’t even nominated.
The CCDA have nominated the following ten films for Best Documentary:
2000 Meters to Andriivka (Sundance)
The Alabama Solution (Sundance)
Apocalypse In The Tropics (Venice)
Cover-Up (Venice)
Deaf President Now! (Sundance)
Orwell: 2+2=5 (Cannes)
Pee-wee as Himself (Sundance)
The Perfect Neighbor (Sundance)
Riefenstahl (Venice)
The Tale of Silyan (Venice)
The Gotham Award nominations will be announced on October 28th, which will add more clarity to the race as they typically have 1-3 of their nominees overlap with the Oscars. By that point, the race will start to take shape and we’ll have a clearer picture of which films are really in the hunt for the Oscar nomination.
What do you think of this year’s Best Documentary race so far? How many Sundance titles do you believe will be nominated? Please let us know in the comments section below and on Next Best Picture’s X account and check out the team’s latest Oscar predictions here.
