As we reach the halfway point of the year, nearly every Oscar category still feels wide open. Of the films released in theaters so far, only “Sinners“ stands out as a genuine above-the-line contender. But when it comes to Best Visual Effects, there’s one consensus prediction you’ll find on every mid-year list: “Avatar: Fire and Ash” is winning.
Does it matter that we haven’t even seen a teaser trailer yet? Not at all. It’s a new “Avatar” movie, which means: it’s happening. Nothing short of divine intervention could have stopped “Avatar: Fire and Ash” from winning, and nothing will stop its sequel either. The only real question is which four other films will have the honor of losing to it. In an “Avatar” year, the nomination is the win. Just ask “District 9,” “Star Trek,” or “Top Gun: Maverick,” all strong contenders that never stood a chance once “Avatar” and “Avatar: The Way of Water” showed up.
Back in 2022, mid-year predictions already included eventual nominees like “The Batman,” “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever,” and “Top Gun: Maverick.” This year, outside of “Avatar: Fire and Ash,” the field is a mess. Maybe it’s because everyone knows how locked this category is that no one feels compelled to predict the rest.
“Wicked: For Good” seems like a safe bet to grab a spot. Much like its predecessor, it hits that sweet spot between being a Best Picture hopeful and a visual effects showcase, especially with its promise of a larger scale and more fully CGI creatures. But who else will fill out the lineup?
The Superhero Films
As always, there’s no shortage of visual effects-heavy superhero films in contention, but history shows just how hit-or-miss these franchises are with the visual effects branch. Unless you’re a “Guardians of the Galaxy,” “Iron Man,” or “Avengers“ film, an MCU slot is far from guaranteed. Billion-dollar grosses help (“Black Panther: Wakanda Forever” & “Spider-Man: No Way Home“), but they’re no sure thing. “Deadpool & Wolverine,” and “Black Panther” prove that point. Otherwise, you get outliers like “Shang Chi” or “Captain America: The Winter Soldier.”
This year’s “Thunderbolts*” and “Captain America: Brave New World” didn’t come close to the billion-dollar mark. They each feature some notable CG moments but don’t break new ground. “Fantastic Four: First Steps” is probably the MCU’s best shot, since space travel always helps. If it nails the tricky visuals — invisibility, human flames, and especially a convincing stretchy Mr. Fantastic — it could land a nomination, assuming the film is well received, of course.
On the DC side, the track record is even worse. Films like “The Suicide Squad,” “Man of Steel,” “Wonder Woman,” and “Aquaman” couldn’t even crack the shortlist. Early trailers for “Superman” haven’t helped, with CGI that evokes memories of “The Flash’s” heavily criticized effects. All in all, a DC nomination feels unlikely.
Non-Superhero Franchises
The “Mission: Impossible” series struggled for six films to land a Best Visual Effects nomination but finally broke through with “Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning.” Its follow-up, “Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning,” might not be the same critical or box office smash, but now that voters are primed — and with an underwater sequence sure to shine in the bake-off reel — it could secure a repeat nomination.
“Tron’s” history is even more frustrating. The groundbreaking original made the shortlist but missed a nomination because voters were wary of its use of CGI. Decades later, “Tron: Legacy” was considered a lock, only to lose out to Clint Eastwood’s “Hereafter,” partly because the presentation focused awkwardly on a de-aged Jeff Bridges. This time, “Tron: Ares” needs to avoid that baggage and steer clear of flop status.
The “Jurassic Park” franchise does have an Oscar win, but it hasn’t been nominated since “The Lost World” in 1997. “Jurassic World Rebirth” has emphasized a return to practical effects, a narrative that helped “Alien: Romulus” land a nomination last year. However, early reviews are mixed, and CG dinosaurs don’t impress voters the way they once did.
The (Maybe) Best Picture Contenders
When a Best Picture contender also boasts standout visual effects, it often lands here too. Think “All Quiet on the Western Front” alongside “Avatar: The Way of Water“ in 2022, or earlier examples like “1917,” “The Irishman,” and “The Revenant.” But it’s far from guaranteed.“Poor Things,” “Mank,” “Black Panther,” “The Shape of Water,” “Dunkirk” and “Arrival” all fell short despite their prestige status. There has to be enough showy effects to stand out on technical merit alone.
“Sinners“ is a major hit and a strong Best Picture hopeful, featuring some clever effects, such as the double Michael B. Jordan illusion and fire sequences, but probably not enough to break through here. Guillermo del Toro’s track record in this branch is mixed as well. “Hellboy II,” “Pacific Rim,” and “The Shape of Water” made shortlists but missed final nominations. His upcoming “Frankenstein” leans on practical makeup for its monster but teases big Arctic battles that could showcase enough digital work to stay in contention, especially if the film is an across-the-board player.
Then there’s Paul Greengrass’s “The Lost Bus,” which follows Matthew McConaughey as a driver navigating a massive California wildfire. Fire, like water, is notoriously hard to animate convincingly, and given how top-of-mind wildfires are today, this could resonate with voters.
Kathryn Bigelow’s “A House of Dynamite” centers on White House operatives facing a missile attack. It’s unclear how VFX-heavy it will be, but if the explosions are big enough, it could sneak onto the shortlist. Bigelow’s previous films haven’t made a mark here, though, so it remains a question mark.
The Wildcards
“Mickey 17” didn’t make a major box office impact and didn’t match Bong Joon-ho’s usual critical heights, but space films always have a chance in this category. The twin Robert Pattinson effect might stand out in a bake-off otherwise dominated by sequels and superhero fare.
“The Running Man” promises a dystopian hellscape, but with so many dystopias each year, standing out is tough. If it becomes a sleeper hit, it might sneak in.
And finally, no one really knows what “Good Luck, Have Fun, Don’t Die” is about, or even if it’s coming out this year, but it’s directed by Gore Verbinski. If history is any guide, whatever he makes will look spectacular. He’s the man behind the “Pirates of the Caribbean” trilogy, whose effects still outshine most new blockbusters. If “Good Luck” lives up to his legacy, it will be one to watch.
Is there anything we didn’t mention? What do you think will be the four films that will lose to “Avatar: Fire and Ash” for Best Visual Effects at this year’s Oscars? Or do you have something else in the no. 1 position? Please let us know your thoughts in the comments section below or on our X account, and check out our first round of Oscar predictions here.
