The PGA and DGA awards were always scheduled to be held on the night of February 8th, in one massive night that might settle the entire Oscar race. However, due to the tragedy of the Los Angeles fires, the Critics Choice Awards have been rescheduled as an opening act of sorts on February 7thth, making this one gigantic extended weekend that will alter the race one way or another.
While the CCA, PGA, and DGA awards don’t normally have much in common, they have been linked more closely this year than ever. As such, once we know who wins all three groups, we can look through history to see what this might mean for Oscar night on March 2nd.
Since the CCAs were launched in 1995, this is how often they have been in lockstep with both the PGA and DGA – whether or not they also matched up with the Oscars.
Films that swept CCA/PGA/DGA and then won Best Picture: “Oppenheimer,” “Everything Everywhere All at Once,” “Nomadland,” “The Shape of Water,” “Argo,” “The Artist,” “The Hurt Locker,” “Slumdog Millionaire,” “No Country for Old Men,” “The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King,” “Chicago,” “American Beauty”
Films that swept CCA/PGA/DGA and then lost Best Picture: “La La Land,” “Brokeback Mountain,” “Saving Private Ryan”
In the preferential ballot era, a film swept CCA/PGA/DGA eight times in 15 years. By that measure, this should probably be a year with split results to make it dead even, as if the signs weren’t pointing that way already.
In this mainly divided and chaotic season, the only film with a slim chance of pulling a clean sweep this weekend is “The Brutalist,“ assuming that Brady Corbet holds on with the DGA. Even if he is somehow upset by Jacques Audiard in the DGA and “Emilia Pérez“ also wins the PGA that same night, there’s almost no chance a group of critics would give “Emilia Pérez“ their top prize, too. “Anora“ is probably the favorite at CCA and could come out ahead at the PGA as well, yet Sean Baker is surely a long shot to cap any sweep with the DGA.
Even if “The Brutalist“ somehow takes the CCA/PGA/DGA trifecta, it wouldn’t suddenly become the kind of lock that “Oppenheimer,” “Everything Everywhere All at Once,“ and “Nomadland“ were in recent years. Yet this entire season has refused to offer that kind of clarity, so it doesn’t make much sense that it would start doing so now.
If this year follows a current three-year pattern, “The Brutalist“ would take both CCA and DGA while something like “Emilia Pérez” or “Conclave“ only wins PGA and then steamrolls the rest of the way, like “CODA“ and “Green Book“ did in 2021 and 2018. In fact, in recent years, it hasn’t helped a movie to win just two of those three groups – at least if one of those wins wasn’t with the PGA.
Films that won two out of three in CCA/PGA/DGA and won Best Picture: “Birdman,” “The King’s Speech,” “The Departed,” “A Beautiful Mind,” “Gladiator,” “Titanic,” “The English Patient”
Films that won two out of three in CCA/PGA/DGA and lost Best Picture: “The Power of the Dog,” “1917,” “Roma,” “Apollo 13“
Arguably, 2013 had two films win two of the three groups, since “12 Years a Slave“ and “Gravity“ tied at the PGA after they split CCA and DGA. That was probably the most dead even year of all, not counting 2015 and 2004 – the only years where there was a literal split of three films, each winning the three groups.
In 2015, CCA winner “Spotlight“ held off PGA winner “The Big Short“ and DGA winner “The Revenant,“ while 2004 DGA winner “Million Dollar Baby“ beat PGA winner “The Aviator“ and CCA winner “Sideways“ that year. There is a real chance 2024 could be next, as three out of the four frontrunners in “Anora,” “The Brutalist,” “Conclave,“ and “Emilia Pérez“ may easily take just one group each – though we’d be no closer to figuring out which win means more.
Nonetheless, films with only one win this weekend will be given a better chance the rest of the way than those who have none at all. Yet ironically enough, films that lose CAA/PGA/DGA have historically done just as well as films that have only won one of them.
Films that won one out of three in CCA/PGA/DGA and won Best Picture: “CODA,” “Green Book,” “Spotlight,” “Million Dollar Baby”
Films that won none out of three in CCA/PGA/DGA and won Best Picture: “Parasite,” “Moonlight,” “Crash,” “Shakespeare in Love,” “Braveheart”
While any presumed frontrunner that goes zero-for-three with the CCA, PGA, and DGA will be all but counted out, they wouldn’t be eliminated entirely. “Parasite“ overcame this in part because it used a SAG Ensemble win to springboard its last-minute surge, which “Anora,” “Conclave,” “A Complete Unknown,“ and “Emilia Pérez“ can also match if they have to. “Moonlight“ also had a writing Oscar all but secured by that point, which “Anora“ and “Conclave“ supposedly have right now, as well as a supporting acting Oscar, which “Emilia Pérez“ is also still clinging to.
“Crash“ also had an eventual Screenplay and Editing win to fall back on, which both “Anora“ and “Conclave“ could still pull off. “Shakespeare in Love“ had the Harvey Weinstein campaign machine on its side, while “Braveheart“ had $100+ million box office and an A-list star/director in Mel Gibson at the peak of his power. But none of this year’s frontrunners have any of those things, proving once again how different things are now.
Still, it either takes a very special film or some very special outside circumstances to have outcomes like this. More often than not, when outliers like “Parasite“ or “Moonlight” aren’t involved, things are much simpler in the preferential ballot era. In fact, given that the PGA’s preferential ballot has only failed to match with the Oscars’ preferential ballot in 2015, 2016, and 2019, the CCA and DGA may look like completely meaningless undercards this weekend by comparison.
Can wins for “Anora“ or “The Brutalist“ in the CCA and/or DGA point towards an even bigger win at the PGA? Or would it all end right then and there if either “Conclave“ or “Emilia Pérez“ won the PGA despite being blanked the rest of the weekend? At the least, one of these four projected frontrunners will be completely shut out in these three groups, but does that automatically mean they are eliminated? And what of films like “A Complete Unknown“ and “Wicked“ who are already expected to be shut out this weekend but who still have time to make up ground with groups like SAG and WGA – especially if the CCA, PGA, and DGA clear away more of their competition?
By the early morning hours of February 9th, the CCA, DGA, and PGA will be expected to give the Oscar race long-overdue clarity or at least cut the field of frontrunners down significantly. It may take one film winning two or all three groups to make this happen finally, or more likely, it might just take one win alone – depending on which film wins and where.
What do you think will win at CCA, PGA and DGA this weekend? Please let us know on on Next Best Picture’s X account and check out Next Best Picture’s latest Oscar predictions here.
You can follow Robert and hear more of his thoughts on the Oscars & Film on X @Robertdoc1984
