The Power Of Timing & Sony Pictures Classics: How Fernanda Torres Could Win The Oscar For Best Actress

During the announcement of the nominations for the 97th Annual Academy Awards, some of the loudest gasps and cheers (if internet reaction videos can be trusted) came from the Southern Hemisphere, as Brazilian fans of their country’s Oscar entry “I’m Still Here” had an unexpectedly banner day at the ceremony. Not only did the film garner its expected nomination for Best International Feature, it also landed a Best Actress nomination for its star, Golden Globe-winner Fernanda Torres, and a long-shot Best Picture nomination. The cheers were thunderous for Torres, a beloved Brazilian acting community figure whose mother, Fernanda Montenegro, earned a nomination in this same category a quarter of a century ago for “Central Station,” the first Brazilian actor ever nominated for Best Actress. 

Torres’ Oscar nomination followed her Best Actress (in a Drama) win at the Golden Globes, another unexpected victory in which she delivered an emotionally moving speech and thanked her mother and the great actresses who helped to pave the way for her (Never underestimate the impact of a televised speech). The extended Oscar voting period in the aftermath of the L.A. fires doubtlessly helped Torres, giving voters more time to see her Globes speech and screen the film itself, whose quality certainly helped bring about the Best Picture surprise.

Still, it’s relatively rare for such a late release — January 17th, the same day the extended voting period closed — to swoop in and grab such prominent nominations above the line. Looking back to see if there might be any recent precedents, I came upon one that gave me pause: Florian Zeller’s 2020 drama “The Father,” which earned six nominations and opened in limited release on February 26th, 2021, right in the middle of COVID-delayed voting. That late-release strategy was unusual, but it worked, allowing “The Father” to crest at just the perfect time and bringing an Oscar to Zeller & Christopher Hampton for their adapted screenplay and Anthony Hopkins his second Oscar for Best Actor.

The Hopkins comparison is an instructive one, which may also offer Torres a path to Oscar victory. “The Father’s” campaign was engineered by its distributor, Sony Pictures Classics, one of the best in the business for awards strategy and, not so coincidentally, the same distributor for “I’m Still Here.” Like “The Father,” “I’m Still Here” premiered much earlier in the year and kept a steady presence at festivals throughout 2024 to keep the buzz going in print and social media.

However, Hopkins had some advantages that Torres does not.

• Name recognition and reputation: He’s Sir Anthony Hopkins. Enough said. Many voters are just getting to know Torres now, and her campaign over the next three weeks will be crucial in raising her profile to match those of her fellow nominees.
• Precursors: Yes, Torres won the Globe, while Hopkins did not, which is a big advantage in putting her campaign on the awards map. However, Hopkins was nominated at SAG and won the BAFTA, whereas Torres was not nominated at either, thus depriving her of some much-needed momentum. It was not a fatal blow by any stretch, but recognition there would have helped.
  

Still, both Hopkins and Torres share some of the same advantages.

• Late release dates: Buzz and early reviews from their festival showings gave SPC the confidence that both “The Father” and “I’m Still Here” were awards contenders and could benefit from being the last contender released. This was particularly true for Torres and “I’m Still Here” because the film received relatively little love on the awards circuit before the Globes. So, for the film to have garnered enough votes among the entire Academy membership to land the Best Picture nomination, it seems likely that many voters watched it after the Globes to see what the fuss was all about. They clearly liked what they saw in this late bloomer and voted for it in the final days.
• Delayed and extended voting: Both Hopkins and Torres’ films were released in Oscar years when outside events affected the voting schedule. In 2020, the voting deadline was extended thanks to COVID-19, while this year, it occurred due to the Los Angeles-area fires. Whereas, in a normally hurried Oscar year, voters have been known to simply check off the biggest names on the ballot, extended voting has allowed them to sample smaller titles of superior quality, an opportunity that helped both Hopkins and Torres secure their nominations.

But Torres has a significant advantage that was not quite as pronounced as it was in Hopkins’ race:

• The International Vote: It is estimated that upwards of 20% of the Oscar voting body is now made up of international members, a higher number than when Hopkins won. With the caveat that the internet is not the Academy, the online enthusiasm for Torres’ nomination, particularly in Latin countries, is illustrative of just how passionate support for her truly is. This is not to say that Torres has the international vote locked up — far from it, as fellow nominee Karla Sofía Gascón may still have support among international voters. But in a race as tight as this one appears, any passionate vote from any group could be enough to tip the scales.

This begs the question: Can Fernanda Torres win the Oscar? Yes, but like Hopkins did before her, she must come from behind to take the crown, which won’t be easy. To prevail in his race, Hopkins had to surmount an absent rival — the memory of beloved actor Chadwick Boseman. The late actor’s strong performance in “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom” made him the emotional front-runner, so Hopkins had to avoid being perceived as graceless in campaigning for himself. Torres’ challenge is not nearly as delicate but is no less formidable — fighting the comeback narrative from another beloved actor, Demi Moore, in “The Substance.” Not only is Moore’s story a classic underdog story, but she may have several more shots to tell that story in the weeks to come if she wins SAG, BAFTA, and Critics Choice.

Torres, however, has two important advantages over Moore. “The Substance” is still an intense body-horror film that may be alienating to some Academy voters despite its significant nominations for Best Picture, Director and Original Screenplay. And voters likely saw “The Substance” some months before, while many only seem to be catching up with “I’m Still Here” just now. Recency bias can be an enormous advantage as voting comes down to the wire. Torres has certainly done her part by delivering a brilliant performance that has engendered enormous enthusiasm and is hitting the campaign trail hard since her Golden Globe win. But can that enthusiasm be translated into votes? We have a few weeks to find out.

Who do you think will win the Oscar for Best Actress? Do you think Fernanda Torres has a shot despite not having any further Best Actress nominations at Critics Choice, SAG and BAFTA? Please let us know on Next Best Picture’s X account and check out our latest Oscar predictions here