Because there were a few new categories added to the annual Oscar shortlist announcements this year, it might be harder to say that past shortlist stats offer any clues about how much this year’s results mean. Nonetheless, there are still a couple of trends from the last several years that offer hope to those who did well this year, perhaps a lifeline to those who didn’t, and perhaps a word of warning to those feeling extra confident.
This year, the likes of “Sinners,” “Wicked: For Good,” “Frankenstein,” “F1: The Movie“ and “Sirāt“ had the most to celebrate from the shortlists, while the likes of “Jay Kelly,” “No Other Choice“ and every Searchlight Pictures movie took hits they really didn’t want to take. But in looking back at past shortlist nomination hauls, are they really a sign of things to come, or a warning?
Shortlist Shutouts Don’t Kill Every Film In Best Picture
The last time every eventual Best Picture nominee got at least one mention on early Oscar shortlists was in 2019. Since then, whether because they weren’t tech players or hadn’t yet gathered momentum, at least one eventual Best Picture nominee each year has started with zero mentions on shortlist day. Those include “Nomadland,” “Promising Young Woman,“ and “The Father“ in 2020, “Licorice Pizza“ in 2021, “Triangle of Sadness“ and “Tár“ in 2022, “Anatomy of a Fall“ in 2023, and “Nickel Boys“ and “Anora“ last season.
With more categories shortlisted, it is harder for films to get shut out than before. Perhaps that adds context to how all 14 films with serious Best Picture nomination chances got at least one mention this year – even seemingly struggling films like “Avatar: Fire and Ash“ and “Wicked: For Good,“ and bubble films like “Train Dreams“ and “Bugonia.“ In fact, the biggest shutout was a collective one for Searchlight, as their already on life support films like “The Testament of Ann Lee,” “Is This Thing On?“ and “Rental Family“ took what could be their final blow.
Yet if recent trends do still hold, at least one film that didn’t appear on this list will make the Best Picture 10 anyway. Then again, if the expanded shortlists were able to give something to every film in the running this year, it would make it much more embarrassing and telling if a film came up with nothing anyway. Either that is all the proof of death it needs, or something – whether from Searchlight or not – is due for an especially historic comeback.
Shortlist Overperformances Don’t Put Every Film In Best Picture
On the surface, “Wicked: For Good“ having eight mentions compared to “Wicked’s“ four in 2024 sounds like a massive win. Yet “Wicked” didn’t have the chance to get two original songs into the Best Song list, Best Casting didn’t exist last year to give it another boost either, and Best Cinematography was only added to the shortlist group this year. Take all of that away, and “Wicked: For Good“ still only really did exactly what the original had last year.
Nonetheless, merely matching the original “Wicked“ instead of performing beneath it is precisely the headline – misleading or not – that “Wicked: For Good“ needed to keep its own Best Picture hopes alive. But is this another “Wicked“ after all, or like so many other films that cleaned up on the shortlists and then fell out of the running?
In 2018, “Mary Poppins Returns“ tied for the most shortlist mentions with four, after it reached the NBR and AFI top 10 and earned Critics’ Choice and Golden Globes nominations. If it still fell short of a Best Picture nomination after all that, “Wicked: For Good“ doing the same – especially since it got everything “Mary Poppins Returns“ had except a Golden Globes Best Picture nomination – still isn’t outlandish.
More recently, “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever“ tied for the most shortlist mentions in 2022 with five, and that, too, was a sequel to a then-recent megahit with lower reviews and box office, and perhaps a lone Best Supporting Actress contender. The year before, “No Time to Die“ led the shortlists and garnered brief speculation that maybe the Academy wanted to honor the Daniel Craig Bond era with a massive sendoff, critics be damned – much like those behind “Wicked: For Good“ might insist that saga gets a big final sendoff no matter what its critics say.
There is precedent for mega sequels, and mega sequels with far less critical love at that, to start on fire with the shortlists and then burn out by the actual Oscar nomination morning. As such, those already proclaiming that “Wicked: For Good” has survived its early melting from critics might still need to dodge a few more buckets of water.
Sometimes Shortlist Overperformances – And Underperformances – Do Mean Something
As misleading as some outcomes from the shortlists are, others turn out to be a real sign. Most famously, “All Quiet on the Western Front“ made its first major splash in 2022 by coming out of nowhere to lead the shortlists, and it didn’t stop until it was a Best Picture runner-up.
This year, “Sirāt“ – the one NEON international film without Best Picture buzz – made an “All Quiet on the Western Front“ level statement with five mentions of its own. Of course, back in 2022, there weren’t four other international Best Picture contenders from Netflix to keep “All Quiet on the Western Front“ on the sidelines. Nevertheless, the dream of NEON taking up every Best International Feature slot is more alive than ever – and maybe like with “All Quiet on the Western Front“ at this time three years ago, there’s broader support for “Sirāt“ to get greater recognition from the Academy than we think.
On the other side of the coin, “Jay Kelly“ only receiving a Best Score mention and missing everything else – including the seemingly tailor-made Best Casting category – is definitely not the headline it needed to start turning things around. Given that its primary Netflix rival, “Train Dreams,” received three mentions of its own, it serves as a double whammy for perception and momentum.
Sometimes, getting only one mention means nothing, as with contenders such as “Conclave“ and “The Brutalist“ last year, or with the 2021 Best Picture winner “CODA.“ However, one-mention films like “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom“ and “If Beale Street Could Talk“ kept sliding from there, until they missed out on Best Picture. Formerly high-profile films like “Women Talking“ and “Past Lives“ barely made it onto the shortlists and into Best Picture. And underperformance from films like “The Fabelmans,” “The Banshees of Inisherin,“ and “The Irishman“ was the first clue, in hindsight, that they didn’t have the widespread support to actually win anything.
International films besides “Sirāt“ and “All Quiet on the Western Front“ often don’t do much except make the Best International Film shortlist. That was all. “It Was Just an Accident“ and “No Other Choice“ were able to do, just like “I’m Still Here“ and “Drive My Car,“ and probably just like “Anatomy of a Fall“ if it had been submitted for Best International Film. Still, while “It Was Just an Accident“ might be thought of as safe anyway, like those films were, “No Other Choice” could have used something extra to boost its bubble resume – like NEON rival “The Secret Agent“ got with a Best Casting mention.
Shortlist Leaders Tend To Stumble Later
It is one thing for bubble films to lose momentum after dominating the shortlists. But sometimes shortlist leaders with loftier goals than only getting nominated peak too quickly, which might be a word of warning for “Sinners“ after it tied “Wicked: For Good“ with a leading eight mentions.
“Emilia Pérez“ led last year’s shortlists with six, back when it was in the thick of the Best Picture win conversation. So did “Barbie“ in 2023, “Mank“ in 2020, and “1917“ in 2019, and they, too, either fell apart right after the nominations or just couldn’t keep pace with other frontrunners. Therefore, despite how “Sinners“ actually got a rare win over “One Battle After Another“ in the shortlists – in large part for having more opportunities – maybe even the things it does win don’t count for much right now.
Traditionally, Best Picture winners either don’t show up here like “Anora,” “Green Book,“ and “Nomadland,“ only barely show up like “CODA,“ or show up more modestly like “Everything Everywhere All at Once,” “Parasite,“ and “Oppenheimer“ did. Technically, one could also sound that warning for “One Battle After Another“ after getting five mentions, but no one seems interested in having such standards apply to it at the moment – and again, having more categories in the shortlists distorts the numbers a bit this year.
For that and other long-standing reasons, it isn’t easy to take much long-term meaning from mere shortlists. However, since they are the last word from actual Academy voters for a while, it is all these films really have to go on for hope, or just plain false hope.
So what did you think of the Oscar shortlists earlier this week? What do you think will be nominated for Best Picture? Do you think any film can bounce back from their lack of shortlist mentions and do you think some films are being overestimated? Please let us know in the comments section below and on Next Best Picture’s X account, click here here for the most recent tally of awards season winners, here for Next Best Picture’s precursor tracker, and here for their current Oscar predictions.
You can follow Robert and hear more of his thoughts on the Oscars & Film on X @Robertdoc1984
