The Critics Choices nominations, Golden Globes nominations, and NBR and AFI top ten are the biggest early season precursors of the year, at least when trying to pick a Best Picture field of ten. Whether or not Academy voters actually put stock in the Globes, Critics Choice, NBR, and AFI, their Best Picture/top ten nominations usually show what’s on the right path towards a nomination and perhaps what’s still alive for a win.
After Critics Choice unveiled its Best Picture lineup on December 12th, here’s how the Best Picture frontrunners, bubble films, and longshots fared against these prominent four precursors.
4 of 4 nominations: “Anora,” “A Complete Unknown,” “Conclave,” “Wicked”
3 of 4 nominations: “The Brutalist,” “Dune: Part Two,” “Emilia Pérez,” “Nickel Boys,” “A Real Pain,” “Sing Sing”
2 of 4 nominations: “The Substance”
1 of 4 nominations: “Babygirl,” “Challengers,” “Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga,” “Gladiator II,” “Juror #2” “Queer,” “September 5”
0 of 4 nominations: “All We Imagine as Light,” “Blitz,” “Nosferatu,” “The Piano Lesson,” “The Room Next Door,” “Saturday Night,” “The Seed of the Sacred Fig”
On the surface, these four precursors have considerably whittled down the prospective Best Picture lineup. Only eleven movies received more than one combined nomination, while “September 5” and “Challengers” Golden Globe nominations seemingly put them above all the others who received one or zero combined mentions. With that, it would seem we have thirteen movies left fighting for just ten Best Picture slots—but it is not always that simple.
It is rare for an Oscar Best Picture nominee to have just one or zero nominations for NBR, AFI, Golden Globe, and Critics Choice, but it does happen. It sometimes happens with foreign films that weren’t eligible for NBR and AFI top ten lists or Golden Globe Best Picture nominations in the past. Both “Anatomy of a Fall” and “The Zone of Interest” made it in last year with just one combined nomination/mention from these precursors, while “Amour” made it in with zero mentions in 2013 along with “Drive My Car” in 2021 and both “All Quiet on the Western Front” and “Triangle of Sadness” in 2022. Even “Parasite” was only eligible with two of four groups in 2019, which is a record low in this era for a Best Picture winner.
Other times, it happens with a late-breaking film or a box office hit. It happened when “The Father” only made one group before it surged as the Oscar runner-up in 2020, while mega-hit “Bohemian Rhapsody” did the same in 2018, the late screening “Phantom Thread” and eventual Oscar winner “Darkest Hour” did it in 2017, “Hidden Figures” did so in 2016, “Brooklyn” surprised in 2015, “Philomena” and multiple acting Oscar winner “Dallas Buyers Club” did it in 2013, the worst reviewed Best Picture nominee of this era “Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close” did it in 2011 and so did “The Kids Are All Right” in 2010. In addition, box office hits “District 9” and “The Blind Side” were snubbed by all four groups but not by the Oscars in 2009.
Among those who had zero mentions in 2024, none of them are box office hits, and a couple haven’t opened in theaters yet. But given the track record of some late surging foreign films, “All We Imagine as Light” and “The Seed of the Sacred Fig” might still have more wiggle room than a “Blitz,” “The Piano Lesson,” or a “Gladiator II.” Also, formerly considered bubble films like “The Room Next Door” and “Saturday Night,” and a slew of surprise NBR nominees like “Babygirl,” “Queer,” “Juror #2,” and “Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga” would seem truly dead, barring a massive shock.
If this makes it easy to narrow the field of Best Picture contenders down to an unlucky thirteen, it’s even easier to determine which ones are getting in, to a point. Films that sweep with mentions in NBR, AFI, the Golden Globes, and Critics Choice are almost automatically in, which means “Anora,” “Wicked,” “Conclave,” and even “A Complete Unknown” now look entirely locked. There are only two films in the expanded ballot era that swept all four and still missed the Oscars, in the musical “Mary Poppins Returns” in 2018 and the Bob Dylan/folk music inspired “Inside Llewyn Davis” in 2013 – though maybe that might give “Wicked” and “A Complete Unknown” a little bit of pause.
Those who make up three out of four groups are usually safe, but there have been more exceptions to that rule. Those who missed Best Picture after making three of those four precursors include “Glass Onion” in 2022, “Tick…Tick…Boom!” in 2021, “Da 5 Bloods” in 2020, “Knives Out” in 2019, “If Beale Street Could Talk” in 2018, “The Florida Project” in 2017, “Sully” in 2016, “Carol” in 2015, “Unbroken” and “Nightcrawler” in 2014, “Saving Mr. Banks” in 2013, “Moonrise Kingdom” in 2012 and “The Town” in 2010. It only hasn’t happened in 2009, 2011, and 2023, though it mainly didn’t happen in 2023 because “American Fiction” was the only film to make just three out of four.
This year, the films that made three of four each had a concerning miss, as “The Brutalist,” “Dune: Part Two,” “Emilia Pérez” and “Nickel Boys” were left out of NBR, “Sing Sing” missed the Golden Globes and “A Real Pain” missed at Critics Choice. In particular, the “Sing Sing” Golden Globes snub raised the most eyebrows and raised concerns it might be in trouble with the industry later, yet recovering at Critics Choice stopped the bleeding for now. But “A Real Pain” missing at Critics Choice continues a rather disturbing trend of it missing critics groups nominations – as it has only made NBR, AFI, the Globes, the Astras, and absolutely nothing else, despite racking up Best Original Screenplay nominations and Best Supporting Actor wins for Kieran Culkin.
Nonetheless, the assumption is that as long as Culkin keeps sweeping, “A Real Pain” is safely in. Christopher Plummer is the only Best Supporting Actor in this era to win for a film that wasn’t a Best Picture nominee, and “Beginners” was a solo Oscar nominee while “A Real Pain” is also presumed safe for a Best Original Screenplay nomination. So barring someone very suddenly knocking Culkin down a peg, “A Real Pain” is still secure in the lower half of the Best Picture field – although it could use more of a critical boost than it’s gotten so far, just to be sure.
If the four films that made all four precursors are safe, and Oscar-win-contending films that made three of four, like “The Brutalist,” “Dune: Part Two,” “Emilia Pérez,” and “A Real Pain” are too, then it would appear “Sing Sing” and “Nickel Boys” are the two most vulnerable of the presumed top ten. That would mean if a fast-charging film like “The Substance,” a critical favorite like “Challengers,” “All We Imagine as Light” and “The Seed of the Sacred Fig,” or a possible industry favorite like “September 5” wants to break into the Best Picture field, they have to knock off an African-American centered film and critical darling in either “Sing Sing,” “Nickel Boys” or both – and that would indeed not look right with everyone.
In truth, “A Complete Unknown” should really be their primary target since it has the worst reviews of any film that could realistically be knocked out, not counting the mortal locks “Wicked” and “Emilia Pérez.” However, films that get into NBR, AFI, the Golden Globes, and the Critics Choice are traditionally all but impossible to knock out at Oscar time – although a hit musical-themed film released at Christmas like “Mary Poppins Returns” and a Dylan esq film like “Inside Llewyn Davis” would argue that maybe “A Complete Unknown” should be a little weary.
In that case, maybe there really are only six mortal locks in Best Picture now, thanks to “Anora,” “The Brutalist,” “Conclave,” “Wicked,” “Emilia Pérez” and “Dune: Part Two” doing almost everything they needed to do with NBR, AFI, the Globes and Critics Choice. “A Complete Unknown,” “A Real Pain,” “Sing Sing,” and “Nickel Boys” are almost all of the way there if not entirely there, “The Substance” now just needs only one of them to stumble a little bit, “September 5” and maybe “Challengers” or a foreign favorite need a few more breaks than that, and now it seems everything else is completely out of the Best Picture running.
As for what might win Best Picture, these four precursors may have done their part to narrow that race, too, even though only NBR has picked a Best Picture winner in “Wicked” so far. Historically, with the exception of “Parasite,” all Best Picture winners in this era have made three or four of these lineups, although only “The Shape of Water” and “CODA” won while making just three. As such, this confirms “Anora,” “Wicked,” and “Conclave” might be the top three in some order right now, while “The Brutalist” and “Emilia Pérez” have extra work to do to catch them.
That is what NBR, AFI, the Golden Globes, and Critics Choice have done to narrow the Best Picture race in this first leg of the precursor season. After critic groups keep doing their part for the rest of 2023, the next significant steps will come from the BAFTAs and the Guilds right after the New Year, before Oscar nominations finally come on January 17th. But until then, anywhere from eleven to fifteen films have made the Best Picture cutline heading into the next big stretch – some far more securely than others.
So what did you think is ahead now in the Best Picture race after the nominations from the Golden Globes and the Critics Choice Awards? Please let us know in the comments below or on Next Best Picture’s X account, and be sure to check out Next Best Picture’s latest Oscar predictions here.
You can follow Robert and hear more of his thoughts on the Oscars & Film on X @Robertdoc1984
