The Screen Actors Guild just gave out their annual awards last night, thus essentially ending the precursor season that precedes the Academy Awards. The winners were a mixed bag – it mainly went as expected, with one or two debatable semi-surprises. But every awards follower wants to know what these champions mean for their Oscar predictions. Let’s look at the SAG winners category by category and discuss whether or not these victors might repeat their wins at the Oscars.
Best Supporting Actress & Actor
Frankly, it’s easy to lump these two categories together because both of the supporting SAG winners have swept the season and, thus, are highly likely to end it by adding an Oscar to their hefty trophy collections.
Zoe Saldaña (“Emilia Pérez“) and Kieran Culkin (“A Real Pain“) both won their respective categories at the Golden Globes, Critics Choice Awards, BAFTAs, and now the SAG Awards. The last performer to sweep all four of those awards and not ultimately win the Oscar was Russell Crowe for “A Beautiful Mind” – a loss that had extraneous circumstances around it that likely had nothing to do with his performance (yes, “Emilia Pérez” has had its fair share of controversy, but none of it involves Saldaña, and voters may even want to vote for her simply because they feel bad for her even being mixed up in that mess). Whatever the reasons, Crowe’s loss happened nearly a quarter of a century ago, when the weight of precursor awards and the makeup of Academy voters was much, much different. In addition to their major televised wins, Saldaña and Culkin are both the leaders in their categories regarding regional critic wins, meaning it’s hard to even determine who might be the most likely threat to their Oscar chances. An argument could be made for Ariana Grande (“Wicked“) and Edward Norton (“A Complete Unknown“) based solely on the strength of their films and the general respect for their performances, but with no solid evidence that voters are interested in awarding them, to predict their victories would be a total shot in the dark. All this to say, Saldaña and Culkin have every right to feel as cocky as they want as they head into the Dolby Theatre – if either of them were to lose, it would be one of the most shocking losses in modern Academy history.
Best Actor
After Adrien Brody (“The Brutalist“) dominated the season, his streak finally hit a (possibly brief) stop with Timothée Chalamet’s SAG victory for his performance as Bob Dylan in “A Complete Unknown.” Given that his film received four nominations while Brody was the sole mention for his film, it’s clear SAG voters preferred the musical biopic. Therefore, Chalamet’s victory isn’t too shocking, especially given that SAG has by far the most populist voting body of any of the season’s major awards. Still, this means that Brody’s path to his second Oscar is now less easy.
The last time an actor won the Oscar with only a SAG win of the four televised precursors was Jamie Lee Curtis for “Everything Everywhere All at Once.” Granted, that race wasn’t quite the same as this year’s Best Actor race, as the precursor victories were split amongst Curtis, Angela Bassett (“Black Panther: Wakanda Forever“), and Kerry Condon (“The Banshees of Inisherin“). Before that, you have to go all the way back to 2004, when Morgan Freeman won just the SAG before his Oscar victory for “Million Dollar Baby,” and he wasn’t even nominated at that year’s BAFTAs. And to get even more specific, no Best Actor winner has ever won the Oscar with just a SAG win in their precursor haul.
Lastly, another factor to consider against Chalamet’s chances is his age. The Academy has a strange bias against awarding younger male actors in a way that it doesn’t with women. At 29 years old, Chalamet would become the youngest Best Actor winner ever, beating the record set by Adrien Brody himself when he won for “The Pianist” back in 2003, less than one month before his 30th birthday. If Chalamet loses the Oscar, the Academy might likely make him wait until he’s older – a pattern that we’ve seen with many male actors who became movie stars and acquired Oscar nominations at a young age, like Leonardo DiCaprio, Robert Downey Jr., Brad Pitt, and Will Smith.
But a SAG win is significant, and any prediction for Chalamet to repeat at the Oscars wouldn’t be unfounded. But Brody still feels like the more probable victor given his comeback narrative and his film’s status (regardless of how Best Actor goes, “The Brutalist” is likely going to win at least two Oscars, whereas Chalamet feels like the only chance for “A Complete Unknown” to win anything), and his awards run throughout this season.
Best Actress
This is undoubtedly the toughest acting race to predict, as seems to be the case every year lately. After somewhat surprisingly losing the BAFTA to Mikey Madison (“Anora“), Demi Moore bounced back with a SAG win for her visceral performance in “The Substance.” What seemed like it would be an all-season sweep fueled by incredible victory speeches is now a decidedly less sure thing. Yes, Madison only has the BAFTA win of the major precursors, which would seem to make her chances in Best Actress identical to Chalamet’s in Best Actor, at least on paper. But “Anora” is undoubtedly a much stronger film than “A Complete Unknown” (or “The Substance,” for that matter). It’s very likely going to win Best Picture – in fact, Best Picture is arguably the most assured predicted win one could make for “Anora.” As such, it’s very easy to imagine Madison getting swept up in the love for her film. She’s literally the titular character, and it’s very hard to separate her performance from her film’s achievements. And unlike in Best Actor, the Academy has no problem giving Best Actress to younger performers – Emma Stone, Brie Larson, and Jennifer Lawrence are semi-recent examples.
But on the other hand, Oscar has lately been in the habit of awarding veteran female stars. Michelle Yeoh and Julianne Moore definitely fall into this camp, not to mention the additional Oscars they’ve recently given to Frances McDormand, Renée Zellweger, Cate Blanchett, and Meryl Streep. Moore would fit neatly into this group, especially given that her film thematically aligns with what her victory would represent – an indication to actresses that they’re valued at any age.
Either way, this race is very, very hard to call. It feels like a true coin toss between Madison and Moore, and a prediction for either would be well-founded.
Best Ensemble
This category was wildly unpredictable before tonight, with understandable arguments favoring all five nominees. In the end, “Conclave” was the victor. In hindsight, it’s not too surprising given its starry cast, all giving career-best performances. But does this mean that “Conclave” is now the favorite to win Best Picture? Not necessarily.
This category has rewarded the eventual Best Picture winner 15 times since it was established in 1995, which is roughly a 50/50 batting average for predicting the Oscar victor. They’re on something of a hot streak lately, with recent Best Picture winners “Parasite,” “CODA,” “Everything Everywhere All at Once,” and “Oppenheimer” all taking this prize (the only Best Picture winner that’s missed since 2019 is “Nomadland,” which wasn’t nominated). In addition, the last film to win the SAG Ensemble prize and Best Film at BAFTA (which “Conclave” also won) and lose Best Picture was 2017’s “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri.” That film lost to “The Shape of Water,” which won the top prizes at the PGA, DGA, and Critics Choice Awards – all three of which “Anora” has won. In fact, the PGA/DGA combo is one of the most solid when it comes to predicting the next Best Picture winner. The only films in the expanded Best Picture era to take those two guild prizes and lose at the Oscars are “1917,” “La La Land,” and “Gravity” (which tied at the PGAs with eventual Oscar winner “12 Years a Slave“).
“Conclave” is undoubtedly a popular film that will do well on a preferential ballot, and it’s practically guaranteed to win at least one major Oscar – Best Adapted Screenplay. But “Anora” will almost certainly win Best Director and also stands a very good chance at taking Best Actress and Original Screenplay. Although its SAG win makes it a definite threat for Best Picture, the season’s odds, buzz, and general energy still seem to favor “Anora.”
What was your biggest reaction to the SAG Award winners? Have they influenced your Oscar predictions in any way? Which category is giving you the biggest headache as we’re less than a week away from the 97th Academy Awards? Please let us know in the comments below or over on our X account and check out what we thought of the show moments after it ended in our podcast recap here.
