The Best Director Oscar is rarely awarded in a vacuum. More often than not, it reflects not just a single achievement, but an “it’s their time” narrative that has been building for years. Just as actors sometimes receive a “career win,” directors are often recognized not only for the film in contention but for an accumulated body of work that has already shaped cinema.
Of the last 25 Best Director winners, 16 had been previously nominated (and a 17th, Ron Howard, had directed a Best Picture nominee). When filmmakers like Martin Scorsese, Christopher Nolan, Peter Jackson, Roman Polanski, Steven Spielberg, Robert Zemeckis, Bernardo Bertolucci, and Sydney Pollack finally won, their victories were framed as coronations. Presented by fellow titans (Spielberg, Coppola, Lucas, Eastwood, Gibson, Costner), they were celebrated with thunderous ovations. These moments felt less like awards for a single film and more like an acknowledgment of a career, with laurels bestowed by peers who understood their significance.
Even wins for Bong Joon-ho and Sean Baker, neither of whom had been previously nominated, carried the feeling of culmination. Each had long been beloved for a string of acclaimed projects, making their Oscar triumphs feel like overdue recognition.
But as with the acting categories, goodwill alone isn’t always enough. Glenn Close’s six prior nominations couldn’t protect her from losing to first-time nominee Olivia Colman, and Paul Thomas Anderson, despite eleven nominations, remains Oscarless. Richard Linklater, with five nominations, is in the same boat. To break through, a director usually needs a lightning-in-a-bottle convergence: a sense of being overdue paired with a film that at least feels like a plausible Best Picture contender.
When that alignment fails, voters often find a workaround. Spike Lee, Kenneth Branagh, James Ivory, and Pedro Almodóvar all felt “due” for Best Director yet missed out, only to be compensated with wins in the screenplay categories.
Looking at recent history, the odds favor this year’s Best Director winner being a prior nominee with some degree of an “it’s their time” narrative. And if not in directing, then perhaps through screenplay. Before the fall film festivals possibly ruin some of their chances with mediocre reviews, here are seven filmmakers who could fit that mold this Oscar season.
Paul Thomas Anderson – “One Battle After Another”
Prior Oscar Nominations: 11
No living director has more Oscar nominations than Paul Thomas Anderson, unless you count Bradley Cooper, who has 12, but some are for acting. PTA has repeatedly come close, only to lose to others with stronger “it’s their time” narratives: he lost Best Director for “There Will Be Blood” to the Coens for “No Country for Old Men,” for “Phantom Thread” to Guillermo del Toro for “The Shape of Water,” and Best Original Screenplay for “Licorice Pizza” to Kenneth Branagh for “Belfast.”
Yet over the past 30 years, Anderson has been building a reservoir of goodwill, from “Boogie Nights” and “Magnolia” to more recent work. His latest, “One Battle After Another,” a loose adaptation of Thomas Pynchon, is a one-man showcase, with Anderson serving as writer, director, producer, and even co-cinematographer. That gives him multiple lanes to an Oscar, including a screenplay category that looks thinner on the Best Adapted Screenplay side this year.
The hesitation? The film is skipping the fall festivals, and early whispers suggest it may not align with the Academy’s tastes. Still, even if it proves divisive, it could land a screenplay nod like “Inherent Vice,” making Anderson even more “due” the next time he’s in play.
Noah Baumbach – “Jay Kelly”
Prior Oscar Nominations: 4
Noah Baumbach hasn’t yet been nominated for Best Director. Still, he has directed and co-written multiple Best Picture nominees (“Marriage Story” and “Barbie“) and built steady industry goodwill over three decades, from “Kicking and Screaming” to “The Squid and the Whale.”
His new film, “Jay Kelly,” comes loaded with Oscar-friendly elements: a stacked ensemble (George Clooney, Adam Sandler, Laura Dern, Riley Keough, and more) and a story about Hollywood itself. Clooney plays an aging movie star, Sandler his devoted manager, a premise sure to appeal to the Academy’s fondness for self-reflection (“Birdman” and “The Artist“).
Baumbach’s understated style can be a hurdle in the Best Director category. But Sean Baker’s surprise win for “Anora” shows voters aren’t exclusively rewarding flash. With Oscar-winning cinematographer Linus Sandgren on board, “Jay Kelly” could give Baumbach’s work a distinctive sheen. And as co-writer and producer, Baumbach has multiple shots at a win, even if the directing prize eludes him.
Ryan Coogler – “Sinners”
Prior Oscar Nominations: 2
Ryan Coogler has been a force since “Fruitvale Station,” “Creed,” and especially “Black Panther,” which became the first superhero film to land a Best Picture nomination. While he didn’t receive a personal directing nod for that, the film is widely regarded as his triumph. “Wakanda Forever” added the MCU’s first acting nomination and a win for Costume Design, further cementing his credibility. He also earned an Oscar nomination as a producer on “Judas and the Black Messiah.”
His latest, “Sinners,” has already premiered to rave reviews and box office staying power. Coogler’s passionate advocacy for the theatrical experience, especially his championing of film stock and IMAX, has only amplified the sense that this is a directorial achievement.
The challenge: genre bias. “Sinners” is a gruesome vampire film, and while the Academy has warmed to horror (“The Substance” scored big last year), there’s still resistance. Spielberg once faced similar skepticism about being a “blockbuster” director before breaking through with “Schindler’s List.” Coogler may need a similar pivot, but if voters embrace horror again, his “time” may have arrived.
Bradley Cooper – “Is This Thing On?”
Prior Oscar Nominations: 12
Few figures embody the “overdue” narrative more than Bradley Cooper. With 12 nominations across acting, writing, producing, and directing, he is the most-nominated living actor/director without a win. Twice he’s entered awards season as a presumed Best Actor frontrunner (“A Star Is Born,” “Maestro“), only to fall short.
This time, he takes a step back from the spotlight. “Is This Thing On?” stars Will Arnett (in a role loosely inspired by comedian John Bishop), while Cooper directs, co-writes, and produces. He also appears in a supporting role. Depending on how “loosely based” the script is judged, it could qualify for Best Adapted Screenplay, a less competitive field this year.
Given Cooper’s nominations for writing “A Star Is Born” and “Maestro,” he could follow the Kenneth Branagh path: the actor-writer-director finally winning in screenplay. By incorporating directing and producing opportunities, “Is This Thing On?” could offer him several potential paths to a long-overdue Oscar.
Luca Guadagnino “After the Hunt”
Prior Oscar Nominations: 1
Luca Guadagnino is another director with years of acclaim but little Academy traction. His only nomination so far is for producing “Call Me By Your Name.” Yet his filmography (“Suspiria,” “Bones & All,” and “Queer“) has made him a fixture of the international auteur conversation.
What’s held him back is content: Guadagnino often embraces material too sexually graphic or violent for Oscar tastes. But “After the Hunt” is being billed as a more traditional mid-budget adult drama with timely subject matter, something far more aligned with Academy preferences.
The catch is that Guadagnino isn’t credited as a writer or producer here. Unlike many peers on this list, he has just one path to victory: Best Director. That makes his candidacy riskier, but if the film resonates, he could emerge as the auteur overdue for a coronation.
Yorgos Lanthimos “Bugonia”
Prior Oscar Nominations: 5
Yorgos Lanthimos has long walked the line between too strange for the Academy and too brilliant to ignore. “The Favourite” and “Poor Things” became Oscar winners, while “The Killing of a Sacred Deer” and “Kinds of Kindness” were left on the sidelines. His eccentric, unsettling style isn’t always easy for voters to embrace, but when they do, they embrace it big.
His new film, “Bugonia,” about two conspiracy theorists who kidnap a CEO they believe is an alien, sounds like a tough sell. But so did “Poor Things,” a surreal riff on Frankenstein with explicit sexual content, that still became a major Oscar player. With “Oppenheimer” and Nolan out of the way this year, Lanthimos may not face the same roadblock he did last season. If voters perceive him as “next in line,” “Bugonia” could be the film that tips the scales.
Richard Linklater “Nouvelle Vague” / “Blue Moon”
Prior Oscar Nominations: 5
Richard Linklater has been directing longer than anyone else on this list, with a range spanning crowd-pleasers (“School of Rock”) to near-winners (“Boyhood“). Many felt he was “due” a decade ago, when “Boyhood” lost Best Picture, Director, and Screenplay. Yet he hasn’t returned to the Oscars since.
This year could change that, with two buzzy films in play. “Nouvelle Vague” (from Netflix) dramatizes the making of Jean-Luc Godard’s “Breathless,” while “Blue Moon” (from Sony Pictures Classics) explores the partnership of Rodgers and Hart. Both are showbiz stories with appeal for cinephiles and Academy voters alike.
The snag: Linklater isn’t credited as writer on either project, and he only produced “Blue Moon.” That narrows his Oscar hopes largely to directing. Reviews from Cannes and Berlin praised his craftsmanship, though not with the fever of a “must-win” campaign. Still, he could pull off a Steven Soderbergh-style feat, two strong contenders in one year building to a surprise victory.
Each of these filmmakers has the credentials, the body of work, and the industry respect to make a compelling case for finally taking home the Oscar. For Anderson, it’s a decades-long narrative of near-misses; for Baumbach, a steady climb from indie outsider to Hollywood chronicler; for Coogler, a chance to prove that genre storytelling deserves the same respect as prestige drama. Cooper embodies the “most nominations without a win” headline, Guadagnino has the auteur pedigree, Lanthimos keeps redefining what Academy voters will accept, and Linklater is the seasoned veteran long overdue for recognition.
The real question isn’t whether any of them deserves the prize (they all do) but whose film, timing, and narrative will align perfectly with the Academy’s shifting tastes. Some may have to wait for the next project; others could find their overdue moment arriving this very season.
Which of the directors above do you think is most likely to benefit from an “it’s their time” narrative? Is there anyone we didn’t mention? Please let us know in the comments below or on Next Best Picture’s X account, and be sure to check out our latest Oscar nomination predictions here.
