Although the New York and London Film Festivals and AFI Fest are still looming, the bulk of fall festival season is now over with the end of the Venice, Telluride, and Toronto festivals. As always, Venice, TIFF, and Telluride gave us a lot of new answers and clarity for the Oscar race ahead in the next seven months, while leaving a lot more unanswered in ways even most pundits didn’t see coming.
These are the biggest stories and twists that came from the Venice/Telluride/TIFF gauntlet – stories that have likely only just begun.
“Hamnet” Was The Fall Festivals’ Biggest Winner By Far
As soon as “Hamnet” finished its Telluride premiere, audiences’ tears flowed and didn’t stop until they flooded Toronto as well. In fact, they were so overwhelming that they pulled off a rare feat at TIFF, where the highest reviewed film at Toronto actually didn’t lose the People’s Choice Award to a far lower-scoring, more feel-good, emotional movie.
Unlike films such as “Roma,” “Parasite,” “The Power of the Dog,“ and “Anora,” “Hamnet” didn’t have to settle for runner-up at TIFF before starting as an Oscar favorite. Even though “Brokeback Mountain“ only placed at TIFF in 2005, before it became the closest thing Focus Features has ever had to a Best Picture winner, at least maybe until now.
Telluride also provided a very promising stat, as professional critics on Michael’s Telluride Blog gave “Hamnet“ a 4.64, putting it among the top 10 films ever rated there – and every single film that has scored a 4.5 or higher at Telluride and received a Best Picture nomination has either won Best Picture or been the de facto runner-up. At the least, a top two finish for “Hamnet“ now looks very achievable, if not the bare minimum.
“Sentimental Value“ Hit Its First Major Speed Bumps
When “Sentimental Value“ placed second at Cannes, unlike past NEON Cannes turned Best Picture winners “Parasite” and “Anora,“ it wasn’t considered a significant problem. When it appeared to go over big in its North American premiere at Telluride – to the point of scoring a 4.49 from Telluride critics – it still looked like “Sentimental Value“ was right in the thick of the Best Picture win conversation. Yet when allegations of a less enthusiastic reception were made at TIFF, and when it culminated in a mere second-place finish for TIFF’s first International People’s Choice award behind “No Other Choice,“ the doubts became louder.
Between “Hamnet“ stealing Best Picture frontrunner status and NEON now having “No Other Choice“ in the thick of the race as well, “Sentimental Value“ is certainly not sitting as pretty as “Parasite“ and “Anora“ were at this point in 2019 and 2024. That might not rule it out for an Oscar International Feature win, a Best Original Screenplay win, or maybe just a collective Best Supporting Actor sweep for Stellan Skarsgard – but talk of it as a Best Picture winner is more subdued than it was a few weeks ago.
A Non-Fall Festival Film Stole The Late Spotlight
As soon as the major TIFF world premieres were screened on opening weekend, and then after Venice and Telluride holdovers screened by that Monday, the eyes of the Oscar pundit community instantly left Toronto and the festival circuit. At that point, all eyes were on a film that skipped fall festivals and seemed to be in trouble for it – but every social media reaction for “One Battle After Another“ during the last week of TIFF suggested the furthest thing from trouble.
With perhaps the exception of “Hamnet,“ every other fall festival film and perhaps every film in this entire race dimmed under “One Battle After Another’s“ sudden, massive hype and most hyperbolic first reactions. And now that TIFF is over and NYFF is two weeks away, all attention has shifted to what might happen when “One Battle After Another“ actually has full reviews and scores out this week, and then tests all those “box office flop“ predictions and fears the week after.
No Best Picture winner has waited to premiere until fall without going to fall festivals since “The Departed“ in 2006, where the Academy rallied around Martin Scorsese’s first Oscar win. If the same is about to happen for Paul Thomas Anderson, it will be yet another blow to the notion that fall festivals are where Best Picture winners come from.
“Sinners“ Is Clearly Not Alone On Top Anymore
Before fall festivals began, it was easy to say “Sinners“ was a top-tier favorite to win Best Picture, because there was so little competition that screened anywhere during the first eight months of 2025. Now at long last, “Sinners“ knows its real fight to win Best Picture will be against “Hamnet,“ possibly “One Battle After Another“ soon enough, and maybe still “Sentimental Value“ or another late screener like “Marty Supreme.”
So now that “Sinners” doesn’t stand so alone, will it stay on top against a more traditional Oscar favorite like “Hamnet,“another Warner Brothers film from a beloved auteur like “One Battle After Another,“ a film like “Sentimental Value“ or “No Other Choice“ from a studio in NEON that just won last year, or some other surprise ahead? Since there are still two months until the critics’ awards and precursors start, there’s still a lot of time for “Sinners“ to buckle down and prepare for the long night ahead.
Venice Was By Far The Least Helpful Festival
Before “Hamnet“ stormed Telluride and TIFF, and “One Battle After Another“ stormed through premiere screenings in America, the Venice Film Festival eliminated far more potential Oscar favorites than it launched. In a chaotic first few days alone, NBP preseason Best Picture leader “After the Hunt“ was all but taken out of the running completely, Netflix’s presumed No. 1 contender “Jay Kelly“ went from Oscar favorite to the bubble at best, “Bugonia“ left a wide enough opening for “Hamnet“ to replace it as Focus’s No. 1 film, and “Frankenstein“ did not duplicate “The Shape of Water“ as a Guillermo del Toro smash at Venice.
When the festival ended, the only two Venice award winners from an American studio were Golden Lion winner “Father Mother Sister Brother“ and Silver Lion Best Director winner “The Smashing Machine“ – neither of which may even be in the top 20 on the Best Picture charts. In fact, the most acclaimed Venice movies remotely in the Best Picture conversation were “No Other Choice,” “A House of Dynamite,“ and maybe “The Testament of Ann Lee“ – yet the first two are not the top priority for their studios right now, and “The Testament of Ann Lee“ still has no distributor whatsoever.
Venice didn’t make a huge impact last year when “The Room Next Door“ won the Golden Lion and did nothing the rest of the season, but it at least launched “The Brutalist“ and “I’m Still Here.“ At this point, Venice might be lucky to merely do that much with its 2025 premieres.
Netflix Fell Off The Charts Faster Than Usual
Fall festival season ended on a deceptively high note for Netflix, when “Frankenstein“ and “Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery“ both placed at TIFF. But until then, the fall festivals were a total Netflix disaster, as “Jay Kelly” and “Frankenstein’s“ initial tumbles at Venice, middling reviews for “Ballad of a Small Player“, and a lack of a TIFF audience surge for “Nouvelle Vague“ sealed its fate for another season.
No matter what Netflix does from here on in, it is seemingly already out of the running to win Best Picture, without even having a “Roma,” “The Power of the Dog,” “Marriage Story,” “The Irishman,” “The Trial of the Chicago 7,“ or “Emilia Pérez“ level early frontrunner to tease us first. And although “A House of Dynamite,” “Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery“ and “Train Dreams“ look to be Netflix’s most acclaimed award season films, they don’t have the built-in Academy and industry advantages “Jay Kelly“ and “Frankenstein“ still have despite their more mixed reviews.
Between “Jay Kelly“ and “Frankenstein,“ whichever has the least toxic – or just toxic enough – discourse during the holidays and early voting will probably become Netflix’s top push. Yet having the “villain“ Best Picture nominee for a third straight year is all Netflix can really win this season.
Bradley Cooper May Have Won Big Without Even Showing Up
Searchlight Pictures was all set to make “Rental Family“ the “villain“ among Best Picture frontrunners this season, as soon as it won TIFF just like “Green Book,” “Jojo Rabbit,“ and “The Life of Chuck“ did. Even with its mere 66 on Metacritic and reports of muted TIFF buzz on the ground, it still seemed inevitable that Searchlight’s No. 1 film and tailor-made TIFF winner would do something – until it didn’t even place.
With that, Searchlight is now in a position it is rarely in – having no discernible sure-fire Best Picture nominee to push after Venice, Telluride, and TIFF. That may be where Bradley Cooper comes in to save the day for them, as “Is This Thing On?“ now has a real opening to become his third straight Best Picture nominee as a director, if it closes NYFF on October 10th with enough of a bang.
But if it doesn’t, and unless Searchlight can buy something like “The Testament of Ann Lee“ before then, this could really be the very rare Oscar season without any trace of the most prolific Oscar-winning studio in our era.
The 2025 Best Picture Winner Will Make History
Another reason “Rental Family“ looked like a lock as an Oscar contender and maybe outright winner was that it was the only contender in this race with history on its side. Yet if it is now gone completely, it guarantees the 2025 Best Picture winner will be something we have never seen before, or haven’t in a long time.
We have never seen a Focus film like “Hamnet“ win, never seen a Paul Thomas Anderson film like “One Battle After Another“ win, never seen a vampire film like “Sinners“ win, never seen a pop musician biopic like “Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere“ win more than acting Oscars, never seen a Netflix film win, and have never seen a blockbuster sequel like “Wicked: For Good“ or “Avatar: Fire and Ash“ win without unanimous 5-star reviews they are unlikely to get. Beyond that, we haven’t seen a studio like NEON repeat since Searchlight did it in 2013 and 2014, and as already noted, we haven’t seen a late premiere that skips fall festivals and wins since “The Departed“ in 2006.
But without “Rental Family,“ or some other out of nowhere frontrunner ahead, one of those historic trends will break this year.
The Best Picture Bubble Might Be Softer Than Ever This Year
In the very best-case scenario where “One Battle After Another“ is as great as early word says, “Marty Supreme“ has its own high scores when it finally screens and NEON gets a second film in, we will have six Best Picture nominees in those films and “Hamnet,” “Sinners,“ and “Sentimental Value“ with across-the-board raves. But below them on the bubble, the field looks much softer.
With the assumption NEON won’t get three films in and none of Netflix’s highest reviewed films will be their top push, everyone else fighting to get in Best Picture has or will likely have less than rave reviews, or worse. Right now on MetaCritic, all the other current bubble films are either in the mid-low 70s or lower, or will probably end that way once more reviews come in – films like “Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere,” “Frankenstein,” “Jay Kelly,” “The Smashing Machine,” “Bugonia,” “Rental Family“ if it still has hope, and “The Testament of Ann Lee“ if it comes out this year. And if their predecessors indicate anything, “Wicked: For Good“ and “Avatar: Fire and Ash” won’t score any higher either.
Last year had three Best Picture nominees in the low or borderline 70s, which weighed down the entire field’s overall numbers. Right now, it is tough to see a 2025 field where there aren’t three such nominees again, and it might be just as hard to see an outcome where there aren’t four of them. Yet barring sudden big raves from an unseen film like “Is This Thing On?“ or “Anemone,“ a surge for a high scoring surprise hit like “Weapons,“ one of the blockbuster sequels exceeding all expectations, NEON making history with three nominees or Netflix having a startling priority shift, the fall festivals brought such a Best Picture field even closer.
What do you think is getting nominated for Best Picture post-the fall film festivals? Which film do you think is the frontrunner? Is anything out of the race? What’s hanging on by a thread? Please let us know in the comments section below and on Next Best Picture’s X account and check out the team’s latest Oscar predictions here.
