After Venice, Telluride, and TIFF, there was more doubt about what the real Best Picture frontrunner is than there has been at this stage since 2019. But if this really is a year like 2019, then the biggest winner by far has to be “Anora,” as it keeps following the path of 2019 Best Picture winner “Parasite” to the letter. From being a NEON film to winning the Cannes Palme d’Or and then to placing third at TIFF, “Anora” has duplicated “Parasite’s” early season path perfectly – but can it keep that up all the way to the end, too?
Initially, it might have been easy to suspect “Anora” would instead match “Anatomy of a Fall,” last year’s NEON Cannes winner. Unlike “Parasite,” “Anatomy of a Fall” ultimately just won Best Original Screenplay, which is the only category “Anora” seems to be a safe favorite in so far this year. Yet when “Anatomy of a Fall” went from Cannes to TIFF, it failed to place in the top three and stayed below the Best Picture favorites, whereas “Anora” went a step further this year.
“Parasite” was the first film to win Cannes and place in the TIFF top three in the same year, which was the first major sign that it could actually win Best Picture. “Anora” is now the second film to win Cannes and place at TIFF, in yet another similarity between 2024 and 2019.
For that matter, like in 2019, the first runner-up at Cannes was a Netflix film that could go on to win Best Supporting Actress – this time “Emilia Perez” instead of “Marriage Story.” Meanwhile, the TIFF winner was a film that scored lower with critics than audiences but could surge in Best Adapted Screenplay anyway – in this case, “The Life of Chuck” instead of “Jojo Rabbit.”
In a year where there is no dominant favorite yet like “Oppenheimer” and “Everything Everywhere All at Once,” no perceived two-film race after the fall fests like in 2021 with “Belfast” and “The Power of the Dog,” and no fall fest sweeper like “Nomadland” in 2020, 2024 has the biggest collection of potential early favorites since 2019. However, “Parasite” was not labeled one of those early favorites in 2019, as it was already a critical and pundit darling but not considered a realistic threat to win yet, unlike preseason favorites such as “Marriage Story,” “Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood,” “Little Women,” “1917” and “The Irishman” among others.
“Anora” is already ahead of “Parasite’s” pace in that one regard, as it is at least considered a co-favorite in September, if not the top favorite. Thanks to NEON’s past success with “Parasite,” “Anatomy of a Fall,” and “Triangle of Sadness,” “Anora” will hardly have to sneak up to win it all like “Parasite” gradually did all season. In that context, it should be easier to do exactly what “Parasite” did at the end of 2019, especially after “Anora” matched “Parasite’s” every move at the start of 2019.
However, in other aspects, matching may get much harder from here on. Back in 2019, no film like “Parasite” had ever won Best Picture, so it was the underdog and critical darling of the entire season. “Anora” is another type of underdog movie, helmed by director Sean Baker, who’s never been this close to mainstream success before, with a star in Mikey Madison, who’s never been a headliner before. But unlike “Parasite,” “Anora” was immediately pegged as a serious Oscar contender after its Cannes win and will have the kind of target on its back that “Parasite” never had to deal with.
After Cannes and TIFF, “Parasite” stretched its momentum by being the biggest winner in the critics’ awards season, even if that still wasn’t enough to make it the Oscar favorite at the time. “Anora” could easily sweep critics’ prizes as well, especially against a 2024 field that doesn’t look as strong overall as 2019’s field did. However, 2019 didn’t really have the kind of rival for “Parasite” that “Anora” might have.
As adored as the likes of “Marriage Story,” “Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood,” “Little Women,” “1917,” and “The Irishman” were, none of them truly matched the critical accolades that “Parasite” had. Until the Venice Film Festival, few, if any, serious contenders in 2024 looked to be matching “Anora’s” high scores and raves either. But once “The Brutalist” premiered and became the highest-scoring world premiere of the fall festival season by far, it changed the game for “Anora” in a way no fall premiere did for “Parasite” five years ago.
Once critics’ season begins, it may be a two-film race between “Anora” and “The Brutalist,” unless one winds up pulling away from the other. “The Brutalist” is a three-and-a-half hour-long drama about post-war America and the American/immigrant dream, so perhaps not everyone might outright fall in love with it like they would with a more hyperkinetic, romantic, darkly comedic, and outwardly emotional film such as “Anora.” Yet if they do, “The Brutalist” and not “Anora” will ride momentum into industry voting as the big critical champion of the season – taking away the kind of advantage “Parasite” had going into the last stretch of 2019.
Then again, if “Anora” is not the frontrunner at Oscar voting time, maybe that will give it the kind of advantage “Parasite” had in the end. Once the industry started voting, “1917” swept the PGA, DGA, and BAFTA awards and looked like a mortal lock, yet momentum and the historic/Cinderella narrative for “Parasite” was still growing at the same time. By virtue of coming from behind at the last minute and not having the bullseye on its back that “1917” got, “Parasite” surged right when it counted the most to make history. As such, perhaps “Anora” could easily do the same if it had to rally over “The Brutalist” or a less critically adored leader.
But there is one big key to “Parasite’s” victory that “Anora” probably won’t match, making any comparisons between them stop in their tracks – right when it might make the biggest difference.
Even though “1917” won most of the pre-Oscar industry prizes, the one that “Parasite” did win altered the entire race. When “Parasite” won the SAG Award for Best Ensemble, despite having no cast members nominated at the Oscars, that was a big sign pointing to a similar upset on Oscar night. Since the SAG Ensemble prize is also how “CODA” propelled itself to a Best Picture upset and how “Everything Everywhere All at Once” and “Oppenheimer” finished locking up their sweeps, this year’s SAG Ensemble category will be under a lot of scrutiny – but perhaps the kind “Anora” can’t hold up under.
Despite all the massive raves and Best Actress buzz for Madison, and despite breakouts from newcomers like Mark Eydelshteyn and Yura Borisov, the “Anora” ensemble as a whole may not be a “Parasite” kind of Best Ensemble contender. In fact, merely getting a SAG Ensemble nomination might be too big an uphill battle, let alone winning. And if “Anora” can’t get the kind of momentum “Parasite” did at SAG, then it will be in far bigger trouble if it gets swept at the other pre-Oscar industry precursors or doesn’t win enough of them.
Maybe “The Brutalist” won’t fit the mold of past SAG Ensemble winners either, despite having Adrian Brody, Guy Pearce, and Felicity Jones as individual contenders. But even if both “Anora” and “The Brutalist” can’t take a big step forward at SAG like past Best Picture winners, something like “Emilia Perez,” “Conclave,” “Sing Sing,” “Saturday Night” or another surging challenger could. Either way, unless “Anora” is bigger than expected by the time SAG voters weigh in, this is where any remaining similarities with “Parasite” will likely finally halt – at least until Oscar night.
Maybe by then, “Anora” will wind up the next “Anatomy of a Fall” instead – a NEON Cannes winner that still won Best Original Screenplay but couldn’t win anything else with it. Maybe by then, it won’t be the beloved underdog or top critical darling like “Parasite” was and will have to play second fiddle while an even more highly acclaimed epic like “The Brutalist,” an even more experimental rollercoaster-like “Emilia Perez,” a far bigger film like “Gladiator II” or “Dune: Part Two,” or a more Academy voter friendly choice like “Blitz,” “Sing Sing,” or “Conclave” steals momentum at the end.
Still, everything that happened between May and September 2024 tells a far different story—one already told between May and September 2019. “Anora” wouldn’t break barriers as a foreign language winner like “Parasite” did, wouldn’t be the kind of Oscar season breakthrough for NEON like “Parasite” was, and tells a far different story about class and culture clashes.
However, while “Anora” and “Parasite” have taken different paths in those contexts, the results have remained the exact same to this point and might still have the exact same finale on Oscar night – even if “Anora” will likely have to take some significant detours soon.
So what do you think? Do you believe “Anora” has what it takes to win the Palme d’Or and the Oscar for Best Picture, just as “Parasite” did? Please let us know in the comments below or on Next Best Picture’s X account, and be sure to check out Next Best Picture’s latest Oscar predictions here.
You can follow Robert and hear more of his thoughts on the Oscars & Film on X @Robertdoc1984
