Now that every awards season movie has been screened, it is time for the next stage of the Oscar race. Starting with the Gotham Awards on December 2nd, the New York Film Critics Circle awards on December 3rd, and the National Board of Review awards on December 4th, precursor season will begin and bring the first round of contests between “Anora,” “The Brutalist,” “Conclave,” “All We Imagine As Light,” “Emilia Pérez,” “Nickel Boys,” “Sing Sing,” and any other would-be Oscar favorites. Based on the recent history of the Critics Award season, one film will eventually dominate before the industry weighs in. But which film will that be – or will this finally be a year where critics don’t line up behind just one movie?
Every year since 2017, one film has won the most critic awards by a rather wide margin—whether it’s “Roma” in 2018, “Parasite” in 2019, “Nomadland” in 2020, “The Power of the Dog” in 2021, “Everything Everywhere All at Once” in 2022, or “Oppenheimer” in 2023. But so far this season, two films have had the kind of acclaim and scores needed from critics (with important awards season narratives) to compete for Best Picture, in both “Anora” and “The Brutalist.” Maybe this could mean we’re in for a year like 2016, where virtually every critics’ prize was split between “Moonlight” and “La La Land,” with only a couple of scraps left over for “Manchester by the Sea.” That unparalleled two-film race during precursors signaled the two-film race between them to come at Oscar time, which literally didn’t end until the final envelope was held up on camera.
That ceremony took place a few months after the first Trump administration began and pitted a sweeping, intimate, socially conscious drama against a wilder, more comedic, and yet still heartbreaking film starring a young breakout female lead turned Best Actress winner. Now, in March 2025 – a few months after the second Trump administration begins – there could be another showdown between a sweeping socially conscious drama and a wilder, comedic turned heartbreaking film starring a young breakout female lead turned Best Actress favorite. But first, both “Anora” and “The Brutalist” must prove themselves in critics/precursor season and establish who will be the favorite by Oscar voting time.
Will they do it in a “Moonlight” vs “La La Land” fashion and divide every pre-Oscar award by themselves? Or will one film pull away from the other and the rest of the field like almost every year since? At the moment, it may look like a tossup since both “Anora” and “The Brutalist” have nearly identical scores on Rotten Tomatoes and Metacritic that dwarf almost every other contender. However, “Anora” has actually opened wider already and has passed its first tests with audiences and non-film-festival critics, while “The Brutalist” must wait until the holidays for those tests – yet perhaps it will already have significant precursor wins to brag about by then.
When “Moonlight” and “La La Land” squared off in 2016, the only other film that matched its acclaim and Oscar possibilities was “Manchester by the Sea,” and even that barely won any Best Picture critics prizes. This year, there are films like “Conclave,” “Sing Sing,” “Nickel Boys,” and “A Real Pain” that have wide acclaim and their own Oscar hopes, if not on an “Anora” or “The Brutalist” level yet. Still, between “Conclave’s” sleeper hit performance in theaters, the potential for “Sing Sing’s” future resurgence, and “Nickel Boys” “The Seed Of The Sacred Fig,” and “All We Imagine As Light,”banking on surges from major critic voters in New York, Los Angeles, and elsewhere, there remains a chance “Anora” and “The Brutalist” won’t win everything in their path over the next few weeks. However, post-2016 history shows that two films aren’t usually winning everything but one. And most of the time, that has proven to be a bellwether at Oscar time—with a couple of major exceptions.
No film really separated itself during the critics’ season in 2017, when “The Shape of Water” won Best Picture after only eight precursor wins, and critics champion “Get Out” had a mere fifteen wins. Yet “Roma” blew the field out among critics in 2018, although it was not enough to stop “Green Book” from stealing industry voters’ hearts at Oscar time. But in the next two years, critics sweeps by “Parasite” and “Nomadland” pointed the way to their eventual Best Picture wins, although “The Power of the Dog” ended up more like “Roma” in 2021 thanks to the late surge of “CODA.”
Nonetheless, the critics and Oscar sweeps of “Everything Everywhere All at Once” and “Oppenheimer” in 2022 and 2023 kept the pattern going. If this three-year cycle continues in 2024, then either “Anora” or “The Brutalist” will separate themselves as the prominent critics’ winner and pre-Oscar favorite until an entirely different film with considerably less critical support pulls an Oscar upset. And if it’s a film like “CODA” or “Green Book,” it will barely have any wins or support in critic’s season, aside from Best Picture nominations and critical favorites in other major categories.
Neither “Conclave,” “Sing Sing,” or “Nickel Boys” would be a” CODA” or “Green Book” kind of winner, even if they don’t have many Best Picture wins before Oscar voting – since unlike those two films, these three have far better critics scores and far less online backlash to date. In particular, “Sing Sing” was the most critically acclaimed movie of the year until fall festival season started, and surely has critics ready to push it again when it re-releases near Oscar nomination time – though they could still help it a great deal in precursor season first. Otherwise, any late surging industry choice would likely be “Emilia Pérez” or “Wicked,” two musicals that have Best Supporting Actress favorites, potential Best Actress nominees, and considerable below-the-line support but will be lucky to get a mere handful of critic group wins for Best Picture.
2018 and 2021 had a very wide divide between the tastes of critics and Oscar voters – and not just in Best Picture – until they wound up in agreement again the following two years. Over the next month, critics will have a chance to establish their early season favorites until the industry decides whether it goes in a very different direction. However, its voting turns out it may still be the same old story one way or another in critics’ voting season, where before long, one film wins regional after regional with almost no variety by the end.
It happened with “Oppenheimer” and “Everything Everywhere All at Once” the last two years before they did the same at the Oscars, with “The Power of the Dog” and “Roma” before their winning streaks came to a crashing halt, and with “Parasite” and “Nomadland” in between them before their Oscar victories. Even those who loved and rooted for those movies probably got a little sick of them winning most critics’ prizes, if only because other movies they loved were being forgotten. Suppose either “Anora,” “The Brutalist,” or both start sweeping with critic groups. In that case, even their supporters may start grumbling about a lack of variety and about critics being unable or unwilling to spread their love. Though, of course, that might not mean they’ll be eager or happy if the Academy goes a different way instead. Either way, we haven’t had a year where critics showed that kind of variety since 2017, if not 2016, where two movies instead of just one won everything.
Could “Anora” and “The Brutalist” become the next “Moonlight” and “La La Land” and take us back to 2016 in more ways than one? Or could films like “Sing Sing,” “Nickel Boys,” and “Conclave” also surge and take us back to 2017 instead, when there really was true parity in critics’ season? Or will this be the same old pattern of the last six years, where the only suspense is whether “Anora” or “The Brutalist” will eventually sweep almost every group? Given how “Everything Everywhere All at Once” and “Oppenheimer” didn’t sweep the first few big awards of 2022 and 2023, films other than “Anora” and “The Brutalist” winning at New York, LA and NBR in the next several days probably wouldn’t be a serious sign. But by mid-December or Christmas time, when more regional groups weigh in, we will have a better idea of what precursor season will turn into – whether it’s a one-sided outcome or not and whether or not the industry turns it all upside down right on cue later.
So what do you think? Which films do you think will do the best during the precursor stage of the season? Please let us know in the comments below or on Next Best Picture’s X account, and be sure to check out Next Best Picture’s latest Oscar predictions here.
You can follow Robert and hear more of his thoughts on the Oscars & Film on X @Robertdoc1984
