The Oscar 2024-25 season ended in a somewhat misleading fashion, as a supposedly tight and chaotic race all year ended with an almost clean sweep for “Anora” anyway. While that was undoubtedly the big takeaway of the night and the season, there were other important lessons, milestones, and reinforced and broken narratives that defined this Oscar night.
It Was “Anora” vs “The Brutalist” In The End After All
After “Conclave” took the biggest prizes at BAFTA and SAG, everyone had it as the biggest threat to “Anora” while “The Brutalist” slid down to third at most. Yet after “Conclave” lost the Best Editing prize it needed to boost up its Best Adapted Screenplay victory, it faded back in the pack after every successive ballot/category, much like Stanley Tucci’s Bellini.
With that tiny opening, “The Brutalist” finally reemerged to repeat its BAFTA wins for Best Score, Best Cinematography, and Best Actor. Some might ask if “The Brutalist” could have actually overtaken “Anora” in the end or if Brady Corbet had rallied back over Sean Baker for Best Director. However, Mikey Madison’s Best Actress win probably would have been the tiebreaker in that scenario anyway.
Nonetheless, after a fall and winter where “Anora” and “The Brutalist” were projected as 1-2 in some order, the Oscars restored that order after “Emilia Pérez,” “Conclave,“ and maybe even “A Complete Unknown“ and “Wicked“ took their respective turns as “Anora’s“ top competition. In the end, just as “Anora“ both started and ended the entire season as the leader, “The Brutalist“ started and eventually ended the season as the runner-up, whether the margin was remotely close or not.
“Anora“ Kept A Major Telluride Trend Going
While Cannes will get the credit for launching another Palme d’Or Best Picture winner acquired by Neon, like with “Parasite“ in 2019, Telluride should get some credit for screening it as well. Although it didn’t premiere at Telluride, “Anora“ got the rave reviews and top scores that so many other top Oscar winners needed, too.
Michael’s Telluride Film Blog polls the “People“ and “Professionals“ ratings after the festival and combines them into a “Composite“ poll. “Anora“ was among the top-scoring films ever in the Composite poll. Historically, the top-scoring Telluride films that then go on to Best Picture nominations always either win Best Picture or at least finish as the de facto runner-up.
These are the top 11 composite scoring films out of Telluride that eventually got Best Picture nominations – as “Anora” proved once again that the easiest way to win Best Picture or come very close is to place on this list.
“12 Years a Slave“ – 9.25 (Best Picture winner)
“Argo“ – 9.25 (Best Picture winner)
“Roma“ – 9.20 (Best Picture runner-up)
“Moonlight“ – 9.19 (Best Picture winner)
“Birdman“ – 9.18 (Best Picture winner)
“Parasite“ – 9.11 (Best Picture winner)
“Poor Things“ – 9.04 (Best Picture runner-up)
“Anora“ – 8.97 (Best Picture winner)
“The Power of the Dog“ – 8.95 (Best Picture runner-up)
“La La Land“ – 8.91 (Best Picture runner-up)
“Spotlight“ – 8.86 (Best Picture winner)
For the record, “Emilia Pérez“ only scored an 8.37 while “Conclave“ only scored an 8.17 – and those results probably could have instantly counted them out right then and there and spared us a lot of stress.
A Three-Year Cycle Finally Breaks
Every three years, Best Picture winners tend to cycle the same way. First, there are historic groundbreaking wins, like “Moonlight“ in 2016, “Parasite“ in 2019, and “Everything Everywhere All at Once“ in 2022. Then there are winners that aren’t as historic or groundbreaking but still widely approved and untraditional. Best Pictures, like “The Shape of Water” in 2017, “Nomadland“ in 2020, and “Oppenheimer“ in 2023.
But then comes winners that are roundly rejected by the Internet and cause a split between new and old school kinds of voters, like “Green Book“ in 2018 and “CODA“ in 2021. For the longest time, it looked like “Emilia Pérez,“ or at times “A Complete Unknown“ or “Wicked,“ seemed poised to keep this three-year cycle going and make a lot of pundits groan over the big winner right on cue. Yet miraculously, the Academy and the online community were largely in agreement over Best Picture for the third year running this time, even if some might still disagree about “Anora“ sweeping this heavily.
Regardless, we actually have peace and at least some level of satisfaction over Best Picture for another year. However, if the cycle had continued, we would have been on track for a “Moonlight,” “Parasite,“ or “Everything Everywhere All at Once“ level of winner next year to make it up to all of us. So now that 2024 didn’t go the way of 2021 or 2018, we can’t feel quite as confident that 2025 will go the way of 2022, 2019, or 2016 either.
Critics And The Academy Largely Agreed Again
For all the laments about how the Academy’s tastes are very different from critics and pundits, they have actually been on the same side more often than not lately. In fact, “Anora“ became the fifth film in the last six years to win the most critics’ prizes and precursors of the season before winning Best Picture, with “CODA“ as the sole exception in 2021.
This was still the first year since 2015 where the critics’ top choice for Best Director didn’t win the Oscar, but Corbet’s inability to dominate like all those recent winners was an early and telling warning sign. Otherwise, aside from Adrien Brody taking the Oscar after Colman Domingo narrowly won the most critics groups, the biggest precursor winners swept the major Oscars – even Zoe Saldana after she finally caught Margaret Qualley at the very end for the most critics and precursor wins of the season.
Aside from that wacky 2021 season, critics and the Academy have fallen into lockstep recently when it comes to the biggest categories – whether or not this signals that 2025 is overdue to make them disagree again.
Searchlight Ran Out Of Gas As Soon As Nominations Were Over
Searchlight Pictures has the most formidable Oscar season muscle of this era, and it seemed “A Complete Unknown“ was the largest proof yet. Despite having the second worst reviews of any Best Picture nominee, it was the biggest overperfomer in the nomination stage, to the point of seizing three acting nominations and a surprise Best Director slot for James Mangold. Yet the split second the nominations ended, the spell “A Complete Unknown“ had over voters was broken too.
From the moment the season’s final stage started, “A Complete Unknown“ completely collapsed, going from a potentially shocking Best Picture winner to a total shutout in a matter of weeks. Timothee Chalamet’s SAG victory was truly the only thing it had to brag about in the final month, and even that proved misleading in the end.
Normally, Searchlight can be guaranteed to make significant noise on Oscar night. But for the second time in three years, its top Oscar season film had the worst shutout of the ceremony, going 0-for-8. At the least, unlike in 2022, Searchlight salvaged something thanks to Kieran Culkin completing his Best Supporting Actor sweep. Yet, considering how “A Real Pain“ somehow still missed Best Picture despite Culkin’s dominance, the last-minute collapse of “A Complete Unknown” made this one of the least impressive Searchlight Oscar seasons in recent memory.
BAFTA Keeps Its Bragging Rights Over SAG
Because the SAG awards were held after Oscar voting this year, it was warned that their results wouldn’t signal any sea changes or late-breaking winners this time. Those warnings proved absolutely correct, as Chalamet and Demi Moore’s lead acting wins at SAG were not repeated at the Oscars, yet Brody and Madison’s lead wins at BAFTA were.
For the second year in a row, the BAFTAs were a more prominent precursor of Oscar acting results than the actors at SAG, at least when it came to Best Actress. It seems the BAFTAs are still making up for getting all four acting races and eight top categories wrong in 2022. But if SAG manages to hold its ceremony a little earlier next year, maybe it will have a better chance to get it right next time.
The Brazilian Army Had Power – But Only So Much Of It
The strength of Brazilian voters was very evident on Oscar night – not only in how “I’m Still Here“ completed its comeback over hated rival “Emilia Pérez“ in Best International Film, but in how evident it was that the “Brazilian army” was the only reason “A Real Pain“ missed a Best Picture nomination, which made Culkin the first male acting winner of this era to win without a career or comeback narrative for a non Best Picture nominee.
Though mostly everyone would have been shocked if Fernanda Torres completed her own miraculous comeback for Best Actress, it wouldn’t have come out of nowhere. But in the end, even the might of Brazil could only do so much, at least once the unstoppable force finally met a far more immovable object than “Emilia Pérez“ in the form of “Anora“ and Madison.
A Winning Streak Ends For Female Writers
The beginning of “Anora’s“ sweep started when it held off “The Substance“ for Best Original Screenplay, which began its path to history and clinched a more infamous kind of history elsewhere. With Coralie Fargeat’s loss, and then losses by “Nickel Boys“ co-writer Joslyn Barnes and “Emilia Pérez“ co-writer Lea Mysius in Best Adapted Screenplay, it made this the first time in the 2020s that no woman won a Screenplay Oscar – and ironically, both of this year’s Screenplay awards were presented by a woman in Amy Poehler.
After female screenwriters were completely shut out in the 2010s, they had been perfect in the 2020s thanks to Emerald Fennell, Sian Heder, Sarah Polley, and Justine Triet. Yet after they won in every ceremony during the Biden administration, they continue to be winless in every ceremony during a Trump administration, at least for now.
All The Netflix Losing Streaks Continued
Over the last few weeks, Oscar pundits breathed a sigh of relief when “Emilia Pérez“ finally stopped being a Best Picture threat, for one reason or another. Yet, not only is Netflix still winless in Best Picture after seven straight years of nominations, but it is also winless in every major category besides Best Director and Best Supporting Actress.
In eight years as an Oscar-contending studio, Netflix had four above-the-line Oscars at that time: Best Director for Alfonso Cuaron and Jane Campion and Best Supporting Actress for Saldana and Laura Dern. Neon alone won four top Oscars for “Anora“ in one night, whereas Netflix still can’t buy just one win – despite all its billions – for Best Picture, Best Actor, Best Actress, Best Supporting Actor, Best Original Screenplay or Best Adapted Screenplay either.
Maybe before Netflix can dream of a Best Picture at last, it might do some good to start small in one of its other luckless major categories and see where that takes it.
Part One Of Two Of The Oscars Offseason Starts Now
Now that Oscar night is over, the common assumption is that everyone will go into hibernation for the next six months until the fall festivals kick off the 2025-26 season. But as “Anora“ proved, the “offseason“ now has to be divided into two parts – before and after Cannes.
Thanks to Cannes launching “Anora,” “The Substance,“ and “Emilia Pérez“ in 2024, it means all the pundits and Oscar followers really only have two-and-a-half months of an initial offseason rest until Cannes 2025 arrives in May. Then, after almost every major Cannes premiere inspires the first wave of speculation over whether it is the next “Anora,“ pundits and fans will have another two-and-a-half month rest period until Venice, Telluride, TIFF, and NYFF – barring some kind of summer awards contender premiering in theaters.
Until then, the Oscar pundit community is finally ready to go on break – or at least ready to go on a Cannes countdown first.
What did you think of the 97th Academy Awards? What were your biggest learns from this year’s season? How do you feel about “Anora” as a Best Picture winner? Please let us know on on Next Best Picture’s X account.
You can follow Robert and hear more of his thoughts on the Oscars & Film on X @Robertdoc1984
