The end of October and start of November is not only the first glimpse of the start of the holiday season, but more importantly, of course, the start of awards season. It’s the time when the haziness of early predictions slowly starts to come into focus, and what films each studio will be pushing for Oscar glory becomes less of a mystery. Despite the clarity that starts to present itself, there are, of course, always categories with open slots, and films with seemingly directionless trajectories. Netflix, as always, seems to have the deepest pockets of contenders when entering the season. Despite Kathryn Bigelow’s “A House of Dynamite” seemingly slowing down in momentum, it looks as if Guillermo Del Toro’s “Frankenstein” is becoming stronger in the race every passing day. With “Jay Kelly” still to open, lost in the shuffle, perhaps, and maybe unfairly so, is Clint Bentley’s new independent film, “Train Dreams,” a Sundance premiere that Netflix acquired back in January.
The poetic film has had a quiet journey throughout the year, as the early 20th-century American time capsule reemerged at the fall festivals, starting with the Toronto International Film Festival, sparking another wave of goodwill following its rave reviews at Sundance. The question is whether the love for the film at film festivals is intense enough to translate to the awards season. Clint Bentley is still a relatively new face to awards voters, having been nominated for co-writing last year’s Oscar-nominated screenplay, “Sing Sing.” That film’s director, Greg Kwedar, is also a co-writer here, with the two filmmakers engaging in a Corbet and Fastvold-type game of filmmaker musical chairs. No matter the disappointment in last year’s results for the beloved “Sing Sing,” the nomination surely helped lay the foundation to at least get eyes on Bentley’s latest when it premiered in January, and that adoration has continued since then. “Eyes” are the secret ingredient here, in turning this festival darling into an awards darling, as the great struggle of “Sing Sing” last year was simply convincing voters to see it. Bentley has already achieved acclaim for his debut feature “Jockey,” but compared to Bigelow, Baumbach, and del Toro, he’s not as big a name yet on the filmmaking scene, and just like “Sing Sing” last year, this has always been and will be the biggest hurdle for “Train Dreams” this awards season. But it’s not impossible to overcome.
Netflix, more than most studio campaigners, quickly shifts between viable contenders. This was most evident in the 2022 season, where we saw them try “Bardo,” “Guillermo Del Toro’s Pinocchio,” and “Glass Onion,” before ultimately landing on “All Quiet on the Western Front,” which paid off with nine Oscar nominations and four wins. While this year they already seem set with “Frankenstein,” like most studios, Netflix likes to have a few horses in reserve just in case the season takes an unexpected turn for the worse. While most are juggling their underwhelming auteur projects, there is something to be said for the little engine that could that is “Train Dreams.” The film hasn’t even had its qualifying theatrical run yet (which will take place this weekend), let alone hit the Netflix streaming platform, where it will reach its largest audience. While one can assume its small and quiet nature will be reflected in small audience interest, perhaps we are bound to see a new massive wave of admiration for the film, which currently stands at a 97% on Rotten Tomatoes, 86 on MetaCritic, and a 3.9 on Letterboxd.
Now, if the open spots didn’t exist, there wouldn’t be any use in entertaining the idea that “Train Dreams” is bound for multiple Oscar nominations, but there are several categories this year that have room for more contenders, or at least room for several upsets. While it currently seems that “Train Dreams” doesn’t have much steam, there is undoubtedly a world where Netflix can change that, riding a wave of positive reviews and buzz to multiple nominations for Bentley’s acclaimed, soulful film. But what Oscar categories should Netflix be pushing it for?
Many believe that “Train Dreams,” a technical marvel with deep emotional resonance, would deserve it, but some don’t feel like it’s a reach at all to pencil the movie in for a Best Picture nomination if other nominations fall into place to help support it. The Best Actor category is perhaps the largest it could obtain, which, after the current top two, Timothée Chalamet and Leonardo DiCaprio, feels somewhat open. With “Sinners” being such a strong film in Best Picture, Michael B. Jordan feels pretty assured, and if “Bugonia” joins it in the top ten, perhaps Jesse Plemons could join the five for Best Actor as well. Even if those four fill the lineup, there could still be room for “Train Dreams” star Joel Edgerton, who not only delivers a rather stunning, moving performance but has yet to receive an awards moment after a career of consistently strong work. While that obviously isn’t how voters make their choices, it could indicate an added desire for both Edgerton and Netflix to push for inclusion in the open Best Actor lineup. There are other contenders to consider, such as Ethan Hawke (“Blue Moon“), Wagner Moura (“The Secret Agent“), and George Clooney (“Jay Kelly“). Still, the category is so jumbled right now that there is a clear path for Edgerton to be part of it on Oscar nomination morning. At the very least, with the twelve spots they have, it’s fair to predict a Best Actor in a Drama Golden Globe nomination for his performance.
Then comes Best Adapted Screenplay, a top-heavy category with Best Picture frontrunners, “One Battle After Another” and “Hamnet,” which appear to be followed by “Bugonia” in most early predictions at the moment. There is also Guillermo’s adaptation of Mary Shelly’s “Frankenstein,” which at first seemed strange for a screenplay nomination but may become hard to deny, much like 2021’s “Dune.” That’s about all the Best Picture contenders fighting to get into this category. Still, Netflix’s audience-friendly “Wake Up Dead Man” feels pretty safe in securing Rian Johnson and the “Knives Out” series as a whole its third screenplay Oscar nomination. However, if that or “Bugonia” falls off or the “Frankenstein” screenplay doubt proves true, this is another category “Train Dreams” could sneak into. Perhaps capitalizing on goodwill from last year with the writer’s branch and a very impressive adaptation of Denis Johnson’s 2011 novella of the same name will be enough to bring Kwedar and Betley back-to-back nominations in this category.
Best Cinematography has perhaps always felt the most viable for “Train Dreams.” Between “One Battle After Another,” “Hamnet,” “Sinners,” “Frankenstein,” and “Marty Supreme,” it may be hard to go against these particular five films. Still, as we’ve seen in years past, the cinematography branch can always forfeit a widely predicted and strong contender in favor of a branch favorite (“Empire Of Light“) or something truly stunning that wows them (“The Lighthouse“). Perhaps Adolpho Veloso, not being a previous nominee, holds him back from a surprise nomination, but the work is so worthy that surely many cinematographers will take to it; the question is whether it will be enough.
There are other categories that “Train Dreams” could perhaps compete in, mainly Best Film Editing (the film packs a ton of narrative weight in a concise and effecient 102 minutes), Original Score (Bryce Dessner) and song (Nick Cave for “Train Dreams“), and if it became competitive in all of these, you’d have to wonder if it is also in the mix for Best Picture. Those last few slots in the Best Picture race feel very weak and, at the moment, passionless. If Netflix can get Bentley’s latest in the conversation for all the categories discussed before, perhaps the love would be enough to secure the film a spot in the top ten. Or, at the very least, it could come close like Netflix’s 2017 Oscar contender, “Mudbound,” which managed to score nominations for Best Supporting Actress, Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, and Original Song but no Best Picture nomination. And if everything went horribly wrong, there’s also a world on nomination morning where “Train Dreams” is sadly nowhere to be seen. However, there’s also a world where Netflix gets the film out there enough in front of voters, and they love it enough, that the film’s own dreams of awards glory come true.
Have you seen “Train Dreams” yet? If so, what do you think of it? What do you feel are its Oscar chances? Please let us know in the comments section below and on Next Best Picture’s X account and check out the team’s latest Oscar predictions here.
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