The Golden Globes may be over, but the real events that make this the most crucial week of the season are now at hand, with the SAG and DGA nominations on January 8, the WGA nominations on January 9 and the PGA nominations on January 10. These four guilds are of varying importance to the remaining films in the race as they can further cement them as frontrunners, lock them as mere nominees, or completely finish them off altogether.
As such, these are the main priorities each film must check off this week so they can breathe a little easier before Oscar nomination morning on January 17.
“Anora” – SAG Ensemble nomination
“Anora’s” nightmare of a Golden Globes night aside, it has pretty much secured every Oscar nomination it needs to stay among the frontrunners. However, it must look ahead for its best shot at fighting back in Best Picture, and that might come from SAG.
Winning or only getting nominated for SAG Ensemble has either been extremely critical – as it was when “Parasite,” “CODA,” “Everything Everywhere All at Once,” and “Oppenheimer” won SAG before locking up Best Picture – or completely irrelevant, like when “The Shape of Water,” “Green Book,” and “Nomadland” still won it all without a SAG ensemble nomination. It remains unclear what kind of year this one is, yet “Anora” lost every margin for error it has thanks to its Globes shutout.
“Anora” may not be the favorite to win SAG Ensemble if it does get in, thanks to the likes of “Conclave,” “Emilia Pérez,” and perhaps “Wicked” and “Sing Sing.” But since one of its top competitors will likely win Ensemble and seize momentum for a Best Picture rally, it would look even worse if “Anora’s” ensemble isn’t there to put up a fight – and a Mikey Madison Best Actress SAG win might not do enough to cancel that out.
While “Anora” now has a serious need to win other guild prizes, merely showing up for SAG’s headline prize would be its biggest win in the big picture this week.
“The Brutalist” – Felicity Jones SAG nomination
“The Brutalist” is another Best Picture frontrunner with very low expectations at SAG, at least collectively. Since it likely has Adrien Brody and Guy Pearce’s SAG nominations covered, has PGA and DGA nominations locked up, and isn’t eligible at WGA, there isn’t much that should affect its overall standing one way or another this week.
The only member of “The Brutalist” with anything on the line is Jones, since she is still squarely on the Best Supporting Actress bubble. Technically, whether she gets in or not shouldn’t affect the film’s Best Picture chances, especially since Brady Corbet, Brody and maybe Pearce are win competitive enough. Nonetheless, any extra credit nominations like Jones’s can only bolster its standing.
Jones might miss the cut anyway if she makes SAG, but getting in is still the strongest statement she can make before the BAFTA and Oscar nominations. And any statement she can make is an extra one in “The Brutalist’s” favor before the next stage of the race.
“Emilia Pérez” – Selena Gomez SAG nomination
Pretty much everything that can be said about “The Brutalist” applies to “Emilia Pérez” this week too – as both Globes winners already have major guild and Oscar nominations secured, have two acting nominations locked in, and are just looking for extra credit by getting a third with help from SAG.
Gomez, like Jones, was considered a more formidable preseason favorite before she slipped with critics groups. Of course, Jones doesn’t have a co-star like Zoe Saldaña to cancel her out, and she at least got many more critics nominations than Gomez – who only has a Golden Globe nomination, an Astra nomination and a BAFTA longlist mention on her resume ever since she and her co-stars shared Best Actress at Cannes.
Even so, SAG’s reputation for honoring star power gives Gomez her last hope for a breakthrough. If the BAFTAs follow suit, pundits will likely have to tentatively pencil Gomez in, whether they’re eager to see “Emilia Pérez” take yet another nomination or not.
“Conclave” – Edward Berger DGA nomination
Like the other presumed frontrunners, “Conclave” has its nomination package fairly set by now. As such, it’s only looking for extra ways to boost its resume, and the biggest way to do that is for its director to ride its coattails – which he couldn’t do when “All Quiet on the Western Front” made its big surge in 2022.
Berger also missed the DGA field in 2022, which was an early sign of trouble even while his film gained momentum elsewhere. If he does make the DGA lineup this time, it doesn’t guarantee he will make the Oscar cut as well – especially after Alexander Payne and Greta Gerwig made the DGA for populist Best Picture nominees last year and were then left out for indie darlings Jonathan Glazer and Justine Triet at the Oscars.
Missing Best Director doesn’t necessarily hurt “Conclave’s” chances at Best Picture, as those depend on winning something besides Best Adapted Screenplay. Berger is in no way a win competitive threat, but getting in would be a boost for “Conclave’s” overall resume, if nothing else. Yet to make that happen, he has to do what he couldn’t two years ago, and that starts at DGA.
“Dune: Part Two” – Denis Villeneuve DGA nomination
Another director looking to make up for a past noteworthy snub is Villeneuve, whether or not DGA makes or breaks his campaign. On paper, Villeneuve should be safer for “Dune: Part Two” than he supposedly was for “Dune,” yet recency bias for other films and directors has knocked him back – at least until a recent string of critics group wins actually put him neck and neck with precursor leader Corbet.
Will there be a last-minute surge by the industry as well to give Villeneuve his due – and will it knock out a more indie-based contender like RaMell Ross or Coralie Fargeat? DGA might not be a sign one way or another, since making that field in 2021 didn’t stop Villeneuve from missing the at Oscars. If he misses DGA this time, maybe it will set the stage for a more surprising Oscar nomination as a punchline.
“Wicked” – WGA nomination
If there is any path left for “Wicked” to win Best Picture, it requires a Best Adapted Screenplay nomination, since only one Best Picture winner (“Titanic”) has gone without a Screenplay nomination in nearly 60 years. As such, any little thing it can cling to will help, and that is where WGA already did a service.
With the likes of “Conclave,” “Sing Sing,” “Emilia Pérez,” and more ruled ineligible for WGA, it would be very difficult for “Wicked” to miss the cut there. Nonetheless, since musicals always have an uphill battle to get writing nominations anywhere, and since “West Side Story” was officially taken out of the running with a WGA miss in 2021, nothing is 100 percent guaranteed for “Wicked.”
Missing this significantly weaker field at WGA would be a death blow for “Wicked.” Even if it does get in, maybe just doing what it was supposed to do won’t be enough, especially if other eligible bubble films “Nickel Boys” and “Dune: Part Two” get in too. But if there is still hope of any kind, there can’t be any unpleasant surprises for “Wicked” on WGA nomination day.
“The Substance” – PGA nomination
With the exception of the Oscar shortlists, “The Substance” has defied expectations every time it was expected to fall off. Yet even after Demi Moore’s Globes upset win and its 11 BAFTA longlist mentions, there is still some last lingering remaining doubt that a body horror film like this can really make Best Picture.
The best way to answer those final fears this week would be to crack the most important guild of all. It won’t make SAG Ensemble, is ineligible at WGA, and may or may not need a DGA nomination for Fargeat to make Best Director at the Oscars. Therefore, making the PGA 10 is the best way it can officially become a lock.
If “The Substance” misses this all-important guild, and if either Moore, Margaret Qualley, or both somehow miss SAG, all the critics who warned that the industry would never fully embrace this movie will make a last-second comeback. Yet if the PGA does embrace it, that may finally make everyone who hasn’t believed in it – or dared to let themselves hope for it – find a balance with its champions.
“A Complete Unknown” – any SAG nomination besides Timothée Chalamet
Thanks to its noteworthy box office, Chalamet’s raves, and its Searchlight backing, “A Complete Unknown” is closer to a lock than the bubble at this point. A likely PGA nomination should seal the deal, though it can get other signs of support first.
While James Mangold almost certainly won’t make the DGA field, and it may or may not make a WGA lineup with several films missing, SAG could give “A Complete Unknown” a big early boost this week. Although Chalamet’s nomination is set, an additional nomination for Edward Norton, a last-second resurgence for Monica Barbaro or Elle Fanning in Best Supporting Actress, or even a surprise but not unrealistic SAG Ensemble nomination can make a more eye-opening statement.
In the end, “A Complete Unknown” may only need a Chalamet nomination and nothing else above-the-line to make Best Picture. However, anyone else coming along with him would eliminate the last pretense of doubt.
“Sing Sing” – SAG Ensemble and PGA nominations
“Sing Sing” has gone from early season darling to hanging on by the skin of its teeth in Best Picture, even as Colman Domingo, Clarence Maclin, and its script get closer to their own nominations. To finally restore some momentum, it cannot miss any more nominations that were supposed to be a given.
Since the very beginning of the season, a SAG Ensemble nomination was assumed to be a lock, so missing that for whatever reason could be fatal. And if it isn’t, missing the PGA 10 may well be the last straw. It probably can’t afford to miss either one, and it is questionable which snub would be most damaging – so it really would be best for “Sing Sing” to make both, as first expected, and not have to find out.
“Nickel Boys” – PGA and DGA nominations
Both “Nickel Boys” and RaMell Ross have been among the top nominees in Best Picture and Best Director all season, yet both remain right on the Oscar bubble. To answer all doubt that the industry would really come through for a film like this, the PGA and DGA need to nominate it.
It’s not impossible that “Nickel Boys” and Ross could still get in, even if one or both guilds are missed. But in a fight this razor thin for the final spots in Best Picture and Best Director, any miss while their top competition gets in would be considered disastrous.
“A Real Pain” – PGA nomination
“A Real Pain” might have the weirdest award season resume of any film in recent history. In normal times, a film that is sweeping Best Supporting Actor, has the second most wins in Best Original Screenplay, and has Searchlight on its side would be long considered a virtual lock for Best Picture. Nonetheless, critics group after critics group hasn’t nominated “A Real Pain” for Best Picture, even as they give wins to Kieran Culkin and to Jesse Eisenberg’s script.
If the PGA leaves it out of its Best Picture field too, it will remain the biggest and most puzzling question mark going into Oscar nomination morning – with implications that could well affect Culkin’s presumed sweep as well.
“September 5” and “All We Imagine as Light” – any nomination anywhere
In all honesty, it’s very likely there’s only 11 films left fighting for 10 spots, with three bubble films fighting for only two remaining spots. This was made especially evident when “September 5” was completely shut out of all BAFTA longlists – something no film has overcome to make Best Picture since BAFTA longlists were first published. “All We Imagine as Light” didn’t help its case by missing the BAFTA Best Film longlist, but it did make their Director, Original Screenplay, and Foreign Language fields, just as “Drive My Car” did before it made Best Picture in 2021.
If there is any chance for any film besides the top 11 to make Best Picture, it has to make one of the guilds this week. Since “September 5” is a longshot for any SAG or DGA recognition and is ineligible at WGA, PGA may be its very last stand. Likewise, PGA and perhaps a surprise Payal Kapadia DGA nomination might be the last hope for “All We Imagine as Light” – although late surging international films that miss all four major guilds have overcome this before.
In that context, maybe the guild nominations aren’t always a deciding factor. Nonetheless, the remaining frontrunners and bubble films still can’t afford to take that chance this week, just in case it does make or break them on Oscar nomination morning or later.
What films do you think need the most help from the guilds? What surprises do you think could happen? Please let us know in the comments below or on Next Best Picture’s X account, and be sure to check out Next Best Picture’s latest Oscar predictions here.
You can follow Robert and hear more of his thoughts on the Oscars & Film on X @Robertdoc1984
