After two solid weekends in theaters, “The Substance“ has established itself as a film that will get some kind of dark horse awards season push from online pundits and maybe some critic awards voters. However, such a campaign will primarily revolve around Demi Moore, as at least some pundits and critic voters will insist for the next few months that she should round out the Best Actress Oscar field.
Realistically, most know that would be a longshot between “The Substance” subject matter, increasingly disfigured body matter, and the Academy’s long-held bias against horror and body horror in significant categories. Most of all, they know this because there have been several pushes for lead actresses in horror films to get Oscar consideration in the last few years, and all have fallen short in one way or another.
Nonetheless, for the sake of argument, it is worth going over those specific cases from the last several years – and reviewing in what ways Moore might have advantages and disadvantages over those would-be Academy scream queens.
2018: Toni Collette – “Hereditary”
This trend really started to take off in 2018, in the early days of A24’s “elevated horror” subgenre. Unlike “The Substance,” “Hereditary” opened in general theaters in mid-summer – from the future director of “Midsommar” – and was an even bigger sleeper hit with over $44 million domestic. Like “The Substance,” “Hereditary” starred a veteran actress whose biggest breakouts were in the 90s, although Collette wasn’t an A-lister like Moore and worked more frequently in supporting roles after the turn of the century. And like Moore, Collette’s big award-worthy set piece was in a mid-movie breakdown – in this case, at the dinner table instead of the bathroom mirror – before her body and character became much more contorted in the third act.
When the Critic Awards season started, there was a real and tangible push for Collette, as she won the second-most Best Actress Critic Awards of the season behind future Oscar winner Olivia Colman. In fact, Collette won double the critics’ prizes of eventual nominees Glenn Close, Lady Gaga, and Melissa McCarthy, for good measure. However, no major industry groups recognized her alongside them, so they flocked to Colman, Close, Gaga, McCarthy, and Yalitzia Aparicio instead.
Aside from dismissing Collette and “Hereditary” for their genre, the Academy seemed to be dismissing A24 in general that year. After it won Best Picture for “Moonlight” in 2016 and got “Lady Bird” into the race in 2017, 2018 was the awards season where A24 came back down to earth for a while. In another eye-opener that season, Ethan Hawke won the most Best Actor critic awards by far for A24’s “First Reformed” and didn’t come close to Academy recognition either.
“The Substance” is at a far bigger disadvantage distributor-wise since it is under the banner of relative Oscar-season rookie MUBI. Even if voters other than critics want to make a push for Moore, does MUBI have the resources and reach to help her beat out stars from perennial Oscar-winning studios? If early-day A24 couldn’t do so for Collette, this might be a tougher ask for MUBI.
2019: Lupita Nyong’o – “Us”
On paper, this should have been a textbook no-brainer to crossover with the Academy. First of all, “Us” came out only six years after Nyong’o won Best Supporting Actress as a newcomer for “12 Years a Slave.” Second, it came out just two years after writer/director Jordan Peele had already made a horror movie Oscar season crossover with “Get Out” and won Best Original Screenplay for it. Third, it was a significant $175+ million dollar hit in spring, matching “Get Out’s” domestic box office and outgrossing all but one of 2019’s Best Picture nominees.
Most of all, once critics’ season came along, Nyong’o kept winning with critic groups at about the same pace she did in 2013. All told she was the leading Best Actress winner in the precursor season with 28 wins, while eventual Oscar winner Renee Zellweger and future nominee Scarlett Johansson were the only others to reach double digits. Between Nyong’o’s past history with the Academy, Peele’s past history, and a relatively shaky Best Actress field, a nomination for “Us” should have been within reach at the bare minimum.
Yet being a recent Oscar winner in a hit horror film from a recent Oscar winner still wasn’t enough, at least in the eyes of the industry. Like with Collette, Nyong’o racked up critic group wins but no industry nominations to go with it. And since “Us” as a whole was similarly ignored in a way “Get Out” wasn’t, it couldn’t give her a boost either – especially once Universal Studios had “1917” as its top Oscar season priority by the end of the year.
Nyong’o’s snub also stings since the field should have been open enough for her. Beyond Zellweger, Johansson, perennial nominee Saoirse Ronan, and past winner Charlize Theron, a fifth spot was wide open for the taking. Yet it was Cynthia Erivo who surged at the last minute for the more serious biopic “Harriet,” despite winning only one critics’ group award that season.
Since Moore has never been under serious consideration from the Academy before, Nyong’o’s example of being snubbed soon after an Oscar win doesn’t bode well. But then again, even with that Oscar win, “Us” was the first blockbuster Nyong’o headlined as an actual lead, whereas Moore has a longer track record of being “bankable” for a time.
Perhaps that once and future star power will benefit Moore in a way it couldn’t work for Nyong’o; for whatever reason, it didn’t. Yet, if Moore somehow won more than 20 critic awards for “The Substance,” that might make a bigger statement for the industry. Still, without a Nyong’o-like run through the precursors, things might get trickier.
2022: Mia Goth – “Pearl”
Nyong’o transformed into two characters fighting each other in one horror film for “Us,” but Goth went to far more graphic extremes as two characters – one of whom was a very old killer – in spring 2022’s “X.” Yet that was nothing compared to the attention and raves she got months later in her second 2022 film as the murderous Pearl, as “Pearl” was an origin story that genuinely made Goth a critical, online and horror community darling.
Nonetheless, as with Collette and Nyong’o beforehand, massive raves for a horror film didn’t translate into raves from Academy voters. In addition, unlike Collette and Nyong’o, Goth didn’t have a string of critic group wins to make her case – though part of that was because Michelle Yeoh and Cate Blanchett split virtually every prize that season between them. Still, since Yeoh and Blanchett were so far ahead of everyone else, there was enough room to go around for the final few slots.
While Goth only won one critics’ prize from the Houston Film Critics Society all year, she was constantly nominated by them. In fact, she was nominated by more critic groups than eventual Oscar nominees Michelle Williams, Ana de Armas, and Andrea Riseborough. However, as usual with this trend, critics’ group nominations also mean nothing without industry precursor nominations.
Like Collette, Goth was an A24 “elevated horror” lead that didn’t or couldn’t get a big enough push from her studio – although this time around, A24 was otherwise very busy winning big with “Everything Everywhere All at Once” and “The Whale.” Nonetheless, in a chaotic finish where both Danielle Deadwyler and Viola Davis were controversial snubs and where de Armas got in for the otherwise critically loathed “Blonde,” there should have been room for Goth to make a case with the right push. Indeed, several big-name voters and stars united to get someone from a very small movie nominated by sheer force of will – but they did so for Riseborough.
Given that Riseborough was a relative newcomer to awards season after over a decade of supporting work, a past A-lister like Moore probably doesn’t need that kind of groundswell to get her in. And like in all these examples, while the top of the Best Actress field looks relatively locked this year – with the likes of “Anora’s” Mikey Madison, “Emilia Perez’s” Karla Sofia Gascon, “Maria’s” Angelina Jolie and possibly Ronan for “The Outrun” – there is still at least one spot available that someone with major momentum could seize.
Such a late blitz got Aparicio in while Collette was ignored in 2018, got Erivo in over Nyong’o in 2019, and got Riseborough in two years ago. For Moore to get such a surge, she would have to emerge over fellow bubble contenders Nicole Kidman in “Babygirl,” Amy Adams in “Nightbitch,” and both Tilda Swinton and Julianne Moore in “The Room Next Door.” Yet there’s no guarantee that Moore would be the big critics’ sleeper push of the race, as that could still go to Marianne Jean-Baptiste in “Hard Truths,” Fernanda Torres in “I’m Still Here,” or some other late surprise. However, if frontrunners like Madison, Gascon, Jolie, or Ronan win most critics’ prizes, it may keep those on the bubble or lower from getting the momentum they need – Moore included.
Still, if “The Substance” and Moore remain hot topics of conversation deeper into fall/awards season, and if critic groups do adopt Moore as their top cause for a Best Actress push, it might start to look like the Academy could do things differently with a horror contender this time. But if that looks less likely by New Year’s and industry voting season, it can’t be said we haven’t seen that outcome many times before lately.
So what do you think? Have you seen “The Substance” yet? Do you think Demi Moore will overcome genre bias to receive a well-deserved Oscar nomination for Best Actress? Please let us know in the comments below or on Next Best Picture’s X account, and be sure to check out Next Best Picture’s latest Oscar predictions here.
You can follow Robert and hear more of his thoughts on the Oscars & Film on X @Robertdoc1984
