The big PGA and SAG doubleheader on February 28 and March 1 was the final major piece of the puzzle before the Oscars, and to many, the most decisive piece. To most, “One Battle After Another” winning PGA ended the race then and there, yet to a select few, “Sinners” winning SAG Ensemble meant there is still a race to be had. In most years, either PGA or SAG winds up going down as the guild that truly decided Best Picture in hindsight, so what happens now that the two biggest precursors of the season have been split?
In the expanded ballot era, 2025 is now the 11th year where the PGA and SAG have had different winners, and in all but one of the first 10, one of those winners eventually won Best Picture. As such, we need to look at those years to figure out which guild is usually the most accurate – and then figure out if the exceptions can apply to this year’s race.
2009: PGA winner “The Hurt Locker” defeated SAG winner “Inglourious Basterds” in Best Picture
2011: PGA winner “The Artist” defeated SAG winner “The Help”
2013: Split PGA winner “12 Years a Slave” defeated SAG winner “American Hustle”
2015: SAG winner “Spotlight” defeated PGA winner “The Big Short”
2016: PGA winner “La La Land” and SAG winner “Hidden Figures” both lost Best Picture to “Moonlight”
2017: PGA winner “The Shape of Water” defeated SAG winner “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”
2018: PGA winner “Green Book” defeated SAG winner “Black Panther”
2019: SAG winner “Parasite” defeated PGA winner “1917”
2020: PGA winner “Nomadland” defeated SAG winner “The Trial of the Chicago 7”
2024: PGA winner “Anora” defeated SAG winner “Conclave”
These stats appear to be overwhelmingly in favor of PGA winners, who have won seven Best Pictures in years like this one, while SAG winners have beaten them only twice. Therefore, it would seem to back up the overwhelming consensus after the PGA Awards honored “One Battle After Another” and make the “Sinners” SAG victory appear like a consolation prize. This is basically what it was for “Conclave” just last year, and like it was for SAG winners “The Trial of the Chicago 7,” “Black Panther,” “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri,” “American Hustle,” “The Help,“ and “Inglourious Basterds“ before it.
There are three major examples in the expanded era that “Sinners“ can take inspiration from, as hope, if not fool’s gold, hope that they can defy the odds as well. To do this, “Sinners“ has to do what “Spotlight“ did in 2015, and what “Parasite“did in 2019 – and in some fashion, what “Moonlight“ did in 2016, although it didn’t win SAG. However, both “Moonlight“ and “Parasite“ upset a film that swept the PGA, DGA, and BAFTAs before Oscar night, and now “Sinners” has to try and do the same.
In a way, “Sinners“ is in a better position than “Parasite,“ since “Parasite“ won SAG and the Oscar without a single individual acting nomination. Yet, in contrast, “Sinners“ now has a path to win Best Actor for SAG winner Michael B. Jordan, while BAFTA winner Wunmi Mosaku still has some hope in Best Supporting Actress. For that matter, the inaugural Best Casting Oscar could serve as a SAG Ensemble equivalent if “Sinners“ wins that award, depending on what the standards for it really are and what kind of an impact it has on any potential Best Picture winning package, if any.
“Parasite“ really sealed its Best Picture upset not just with its SAG win but with Bong Joon-ho’s upset in Best Director, which Ryan Coogler is unlikely to match thanks to Paul Thomas Anderson. Though like with “Parasite,” “Sinners“ is favored to win Best Original Screenplay for at least one major victory above-the-line. Yet as “Parasite“ and every single other Best Picture winner in this era except “Spotlight“ proved, a Best Picture winner needs at least two above-the-line wins first – and now Jordan and Mosaku carry the last hopes for “Sinners“ to get that bonus major victory.
“Parasite“ had won the most critics’ awards and precursors before “1917“ swept the first few significant guilds and BAFTA, whereas “Sinners“ has been runner-up for most overall wins all season to “One Battle After Another.“ “1917” was easier to knock off because it only looked like the frontrunner late in the season, yet “La La Land“ proved season-long leaders can still slip at the last second, despite still winning major awards all the way up to Oscar night. If such a slip remains possible this year, “Sinners“ will have to be a little like “Parasite“ and a little like “Moonlight“ to pull it off.
Otherwise, “Sinners“ has to defy the odds as much as “Spotlight“ did, when it won Best Picture despite losing the PGA and having no other Oscar wins except for Best Original Screenplay. At least “Sinners“ probably won’t have that few wins before Best Picture, with Best Original Score lined up as an almost certain technical win if nothing else.
“Spotlight“ was a SAG winner that broke a tie with PGA winner “The Big Short,“ but that was a bit easier because “The Big Short“ was not its biggest threat on Oscar night. It was “The Revenant“ that emerged as its major challenger by the end of the season, thanks to its wins for Best Director and Best Actor, while “The Big Short” couldn’t get Oscars in any other category besides Best Adapted Screenplay. That is not going to be the case for “One Battle After Another,“ since this has been a two-film race all season, not a three-film one.
All season long, the showdown between “One Battle After Another“ and “Sinners“ has mirrored the two-film race in 2016 between “La La Land“ and “Moonlight.“ Like “La La Land,” “One Battle After Another“ has swept PGA, DGA, and BAFTA, is in line to win Best Director and at least one acting Oscar, has at least some technical wins in sight – and unlike “La La Land,” “One Battle After Another“ is locked to win in Screenplay as well.
As already noted, “Moonlight“ was in more dire straits before Oscar night, because it didn’t even have a SAG victory for any momentum going in. But like with “Moonlight,“ there is now a chance that “Sinners“ could have an individual acting win and a Screenplay win before Best Picture is read, as well as some below-the-line Oscars that “Moonlight“ could not get. In that way, “Sinners“ would be in better, if not completely worse, shape than “Moonlight“ was in before the final envelope, if it does have its best possible performance in the other categories.
Nonetheless, the wins of “Spotlight,” “Moonlight,“ and “Parasite“ were all very rare exceptions to how Best Picture usually goes in this era – and none of those upset, trend-breaking wins happened in this decade or after the pandemic. In addition, since “1917“ lost to “Parasite“ in 2019, no PGA winner has lost Best Picture in this decade, whether they swept the other major precursors or not. Then again, there weren’t wins like the ones “Spotlight,” “Moonlight,“ or “Parasite“ had for a long time, if ever, before they went against the grain and seemingly locked up frontrunners anyway.
“Spotlight“ benefited from a split race without a major frontrunner, while “Moonlight“ benefited from an unprecedented late run and groundswell that didn’t seem to be reflected in the other late precursors, and “Parasite“ propelled itself after winning SAG in a way that “Sinners“ can only hope to recreate now. Could a Jordan or Mosaku Oscar win be the big sign of a late “Sinners“ rally like Joon-ho’s historic Best Director win was, or at least give it the kind of acting and Screenplay combination “Moonlight“ had before it came even further out of nowhere?
In the grand scheme of recent history, being a lone SAG winner facing a PGA winner does not bode well. What’s more, even when those winners beat supposed frontrunners like “The Big Short,” “The Revenant,“ “La La Land,“ and “1917,” they weren’t as strong as “One Battle After Another“ appears to be right now. In that way, “Sinners“ winning Best Picture after all might be a bigger shocker than anything “Spotlight,” “Moonlight,” or “Parasite“ did – and yet those three winners are the only examples left to show “Sinners“ it can still be done.
What do you think is winning Best Picture at the Oscars? Do you think it will be “Sinners” or “One Battle After Another?” Please let us know in the comments section below and on Next Best Picture’s X account, click here here for the most recent tally of awards season winners, here for Next Best Picture’s precursor tracker, and here for their current Oscar predictions.
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