Some award season precursors more accurately foreshadow the Oscars than others – but not the National Board of Review. As such, those who are celebrating or panicking that “Wicked,” Jon M. Chu, Daniel Craig, Nicole Kidman, Kieran Culkin, Elle Fanning, “Hard Truths,” and “Sing Sing” won the top eight NBR categories on December 4 are probably mistaken. In truth, winning NBR is a rather big blow for almost all those winners in the Oscar-win conversation, according to recent history.
In the 15 years of the expanded ballot era, only 14 NBR above-the-line winners – 14 out of 120 overall – have then won the Oscar. What’s more, usually, it’s only one of the eight NBR winners a year who can pull it off or two at the absolute most. All told, here is the list of those rare exceptions year by year.
2023: Best Supporting Actress winner Da’Vine Joy Randolph
2022: Best Actress winner Michelle Yeoh
2021: Best Actor winner Will Smith
2019: Best Actress winner Renee Zellweger and Best Supporting Actor winner Brad Pitt
2018: Best Picture winner “Green Book”
2016: Best Actor winner Casey Affleck and Best Original Screenplay winner “Manchester by the Sea”
2015: Best Actress winner Brie Larson
2014: Best Actress winner Julianne Moore
2011: Best Supporting Actor winner Christopher Plummer and Best Adapted Screenplay winner “The Descendants”
2010: Best Supporting Actor winner Christian Bale and Best Adapted Screenplay winner “The Social Network”
In total, that is one Best Picture winner, zero Best Director winners, ten total acting winners, and three screenplay winners who won both NBR and the Oscar in 15 years. For that matter, that is almost half of the number of major NBR winners who didn’t even get Oscar nominated – including two NBR Best Picture winners in “A Most Violent Year” and “Da 5 Bloods”, two Best Actor and Best Supporting Actor winners each, five Best Actress and Best Supporting Actress winners each, and six Best Director winners.
With that track record, those who won NBR awards in 2024 are far worse off than they would have been if they lost, at least if they hope to win the Oscar instead of just getting nominated. Even so, the current trend of one NBR acting winner also winning an Oscar in the last three years running is a hopeful one by NBR standards.
Last year, Randolph won both NBR and the Oscar as part of one of the most dominant sweeps of all time, making her a notable exception to almost any rule. In 2022, Yeoh won as part of “Everything Everywhere All at Once,” ultimately being the most dominant above-the-line Oscar sweeper of all time, while Smith was practically handed the Oscar the minute “King Richard” first screened in 2021. As for the collection of NBR acting winners this year, only Culkin was assumed safe even to get a nomination – while both Craig and Kidman are still squarely on the bubble, and very few had Fanning close to the Best Supporting Actress bubble before now.
If NBR actually gets one acting race right for the fourth straight year, there’s little doubt the favorite for that honor would be Culkin at this point. Nonetheless, he doesn’t look like a Randolph-like sweeper yet, and “A Real Pain” is nowhere near an “Everything Everywhere All at Once” kind of contender. But at least he’s being talked about as an actor who can win, unlike Craig, Kidman, and Fanning, barring any more precursor shockers.
The screenplay awards aren’t any more telling since it was an Original Screenplay bubble film in “Hard Truths” that upset supposed favorites “Anora,” “The Brutalist,” and “A Real Pain” at NBR, while it was former presumed Adapted favorite “Sing Sing” that beat out presumed current favorite “Conclave” along with it. Given that only three NBR screenplay winners have won an Oscar in the last 15 years, maybe “Sing Sing” catching “Conclave” too early at NBR isn’t the best omen for its comeback. On the other hand, since “Hard Truths” is only looking for a nomination and writer Mike Leigh is a recurring Academy favorite, NBR could end up doing more good than harm by the end.
Leaving all that aside, it likely isn’t the acting or screenplay awards that NBR threw a major curveball at this year. The big headline is “Wicked” winning Best Picture and Chu winning Best Director along with it – although for those dreading a “Wicked” Oscar win now, NBR kind of did them a favor after all. Not only has no NBR Director winner ever won the Oscar in the expanded era, but “Green Book” is the only NBR Best Picture in that time to win as well, so the odds are really against “Wicked” more than ever before.
Then again, maybe it says something that “Green Book” was the one Best Picture choice NBR has gotten right in this era. Like “Wicked,” “Green Book” was a green-themed movie more popular with audiences and populist voters than critics, to the point that not many pundits took it seriously as an early threat to win it all – despite the omens of “Green Book’s” TIFF People’s Choice win and “Wicked’s” record-setting holiday box office. But once the NBR voters gave “Green Book” a true seal of legitimacy, it just kept on coming and upsetting its critics all the way up to Oscar night, and now a world has opened up where “Wicked” can do the same.
Still, other supposed populist favorites and NBR winners like “Top Gun: Maverick,” “The Post,” “Hugo,” and “Mad Max: Fury Road” have not been so lucky in this era. And in this early part of the season where supposed critical favorites like “Anora,” “Conclave,” “Sing Sing,” and the NBR snubbed “The Brutalist” are waiting to do better with regional critics groups, there is still a long way to go until a real Oscar favorite emerges – or at least a critical Oscar favorite that can do battle with “Wicked” at the industry awards.
Those searching for signs at NBR won’t find many positive ones, at least if they are happy with the likes of “Wicked,” Chu and several bubble contenders winning and hoping for more. If anything, since past Best Picture winners “The Shape of Water,” “CODA” and “Parasite” didn’t make the NBR top 10, the fact that “The Brutalist” and “Dune: Part Two” missed it and “Emilia Pérez” didn’t even make the top five in International Feature aren’t deal breakers on their own. Since no Best Picture winner in this era has missed the AFI’s top 10 list or its special mentions, that announcement will really say if there’s something for these films to worry about.
As for those who were honored by NBR, the odds are still very high that only one of them, if any, will ride that momentum all the way to Oscar night. For the moment, in a group of “Wicked,” Chu, Craig, Kidman, Culkin, Fanning, “Hard Truths,” and “Sing Sing,” only Culkin feels like a better-than-average bet to be the one thing NBR ultimately gets right. With a few more breaks, “Sing Sing’s” script and “Wicked” in Best Picture could still find a path to join or overtake him, but many things – and a lot of history – need to be overcome first.
It is a very rare sweeper, or someone or something on a very rare stat-breaking run, that manages to win a significant NBR and Academy Award in the same year. There have only been 14 such winners in the last 15 years – and more than most, this year’s major NBR winners show it will be very surprising if it goes up to 15 or even 16 by the end of this season. But if it happens, it’s all too easy to pick out which two or three possibilities, at maximum, it could be.
So what did you think of yesterday’s National Board Of Review winners? Do you think any of them will translate to the Oscars? How many Oscar nominations do you predict “Wicked” will receive? Please let us know in the comments below or on Next Best Picture’s X account, and be sure to check out Next Best Picture’s latest Oscar predictions here.
You can follow Robert and hear more of his thoughts on the Oscars & Film on X @Robertdoc1984
