Going into Oscar nomination morning, Best Picture was already a two-way race, with Critics Choice and Golden Globe winner “One Battle After Another” having the early edge over “Sinners” due to its rapturous critical reception and strong performance thus far this awards season. Both films seemed all but guaranteed to garner double-digit nominations, but the question became which one would gain more. Here, “Sinners” had more of an edge thanks to how much of a below-the-line achievement the film was across the board. There were even rumblings about whether “Sinners” or “One Battle After Another” could tie, or even break, the record for the most Oscar nominations, previously set at 14. And on Oscar nomination morning, “Sinners” became the most-nominated film of all time, with not 15 but a whopping 16 nominations.
While naysayers who were aware of the possibility of “Sinners” getting the most Oscar nominations of all time may have been prepared to claim that Ryan Coogler’s smash hit film only achieved this feat because of the newly minted Best Casting category, the film would have broken the record held by “La La Land,” “Titanic,” and “All About Eve” even without the category. It should also be mentioned that the same number of categories existed when those films garnered 14 nominations and “Sinners” garnered 16, since the two Sound categories merged in 2020. This would’ve given it a total of 17 nominations if both Sound categories still existed today.
Much of “Sinners‘” Oscar nomination haul was expected, much like its domination below the line. Its Best Visual Effects nomination was a surprise, given its BAFTA longlist miss and underperformance at the VES. Still, it is a testament to the film’s passion for its craft that it overcame both obstacles. However, the single most shocking nomination it received was for Delroy Lindo in Best Supporting Actor, who had been written off by many following his Actor Award miss. Best Supporting Actor was already a stacked category, with Jacob Elordi and Stellan Skarsgård heading into nominations morning with a precursor win each under their belts, while Sean Penn and Benicio del Toro had flashy, buzzed-about turns in the juggernaut that is “One Battle After Another.” Most assumed Paul Mescal would receive the nomination after landing nods at CCA, the Golden Globes, the Actor Awards, as well as a longlist mention at BAFTA. “Hamnet” was also coming off a Golden Globe win for Best Film – Drama, so it seemed foolish to predict an underperformance for it. Yet it speaks volumes to how much Lindo’s understated but memorable performance stuck with audiences, and to how much “Sinners” as a whole is emotionally resonating with voters, that he managed to snag a nomination regardless. The film almost completely maxed out; the only nominations it seemed to miss were an additional Best Original Song nomination for “Last Time (I Seen the Sun)” and a Best Supporting Actor nomination for Actor nominee Miles Caton. And considering “Sinners” got a nomination in the Best Original Song category for the showstopping “I Lied to You,” and Lindo in any way, I would hardly call that a loss.
On the flip side, while you could hardly call 13 nominations for “One Battle After Another” a bad day, the film notably underperformed in a few places. Despite a somewhat strong showing in both the Best Makeup & Hairstyling and Costume Design categories during winter, it missed out on both categories to far weaker award contenders. It might be worth mentioning that “Sinners” was expected in both and received nominations in both. Though you could argue its surprising nomination in Best Production Design partially outweighs those snubs, “One Battle After Another” suffered by far its biggest blow in Best Actress. The film’s breakout star, Chase Infiniti, was unable to secure a nomination for Best Actress despite receiving mentions at every major precursor award. Though she may not have had as much screentime as the actresses who got in over her, her biggest hindrance was likely that many considered her performance supporting rather than lead—it is still rare to see a lead performer of a Best Picture winner miss the Oscar nomination. While these misses by themselves are not the end of the world, they do point to the fact that Oscar voters were not willing to go for “One Battle After Another” everywhere when presented with compelling alternatives. When you contrast this with “Sinners” beating already lofty expectations, it appears that even though it was released in April, “Sinners” has managed to peak in momentum at the right time. And as we have learned from upsets like “CODA” over “The Power of the Dog,” “Parasite” over “1917,” and “Moonlight” over “La La Land,” momentum is everything in a Best Picture race.
While this race may feel like a toss-up now, we can look to the PGA, DGA, BAFTA, and the Actor Awards to gain more clarity. Post-BAFTA nominations, it’s looking pretty good for Paul Thomas Anderson over there as “One Battle After Another” led in nominations over “Sinners.” I suspect that the awards body that awarded “Licorice Pizza” in screenplay over eventual Oscar winner “Belfast” is more likely to go for “One Battle After Another” than “Sinners,” which was much more of a phenomenon in America than overseas. That said, both films performed well at the BAFTAs. And in turn, “Sinners” should have a slight edge at the Actor Awards, given its large ensemble and frequent interactions among its members. Admittedly, “One Battle After Another” received more acting nominations at the Actor Awards than at the Oscars, so the win is far from set in stone for “Sinners.”
Victories at those award bodies, however, are less telling than at the PGA and DGA. It remains to be seen whether the Producers’ Guild Award will go to a film that failed to turn a profit, when they have a beloved alternative that is undoubtedly the Hollywood success story of the year. As an original, artistic film and a bona fide smash at the box office, “Sinners” is bound to be the new poster child constantly brought up in pitch meetings as proof that new concepts can thrive when paired with an auteur vision. That narrative, combined with the sheer passion the film has already amassed and the fact that the PGA tends to be a more populist awards body, could push the film over the edge. If “Sinners” manages to win the PGA, “One Battle After Another” would desperately need both BAFTA and DGA to stand a chance at Best Picture. But even then, when BAFTA and PGA split, the PGA typically goes to the Best Picture winner.
DGA is interesting, however, since the biggest argument against “Sinners” winning Best Picture is that “One Battle After Another” remains the frontrunner in Best Director and Best Adapted Screenplay. The last time a film won directing and screenwriting Oscars while losing Best Picture was “Brokeback Mountain,” and as you can imagine, there were… extenuating factors contributing to that loss. Should Paul Thomas Anderson win BAFTAs for Best Director and Best Adapted Screenplay, DGA, and WGA, “One Battle After Another” would still have a strong case at winning Best Picture. But a DGA win for Ryan Coogler, who has notably won Best Director at nearly every critics’ body that has given “Sinners” the win in Best Picture, would probably seal the deal at the Oscars, provided that “Sinners” wins at least one other precursor from PGA, BAFTA, and/or Actor. Of course, this is an extended, convoluted hypothetical based on what I think are likely scenarios, and we awards season nerds are all too aware of the fact that there is nothing awards seasons love more than throwing curveballs.
Lastly, if “Sinners” is our new Best Picture frontrunner, what would its package look like? Even if it loses Best Picture, the categories of Best Original Screenplay, Best Cinematography, and Best Original Score all seem safe bets to pencil in. If it is our next Best Picture winner, Best Casting and Best Director are logical additions to its package. An acting win usually accompanies a Best Picture win, though, so I would keep an eye out for Wunmi Mosaku if she manages to win at the Actor Awards or at BAFTA, or even Michael B. Jordan, who has been very competitive with Chalamet in the regional critics’ wins this season. And though “I Lied to You” has been unable to beat the megahit that is “Golden” so far at any major awards ceremony for Best Original Song, would it not be odd for “Sinners” to win Best Picture without a win for the song that anchors the very best scene in the entire film? Also, now that Lindo has been nominated, how will that change the distribution of votes in the Best Supporting Actor category, as we will not have had a lineup with him up until the Oscars?
At the end of the day, no matter how the Oscars turn out, one thing is certain: our next Best Picture winner will be a Warner Bros. film. This weekend at the DGA awards could start to tell us which one it is, or not. It’s still a race…for now.
Who do you think is winning the DGA, PGA, Actor, BAFTA and eventually Best Picture this year between “Sinners” and “One Battle After Another?” How many Oscars do you think each film will win? Please let us know in the comments section below or over on Next Best Picture’s X account.
