Pundits usually only have to look at the other above-the-line categories besides Best Picture when figuring out who will eventually win the Academy’s top prize. If a movie wins more than one major Oscar in those other seven categories (either of the four acting categories, one of two screenplay categories, and Best Director) or just has the right combination of wins, that tends to spoil the winner before the final envelope is read. But this year, there is a very real scenario where none of that will give us a clue – for the first time in almost 70 years.
For the moment, it is very easy to imagine a scenario where “The Brutalist” wins Best Director for Brady Corbet, “A Complete Unknown” wins Best Actor for Timothee Chalamet, “The Substance” wins Best Actress for Demi Moore, “A Real Pain” wins Best Supporting Actor for Kieran Culkin, “Emilia Pérez” wins Best Supporting Actress for Zoe Saldana, “Anora” wins Best Original Screenplay and “Conclave” wins Best Adapted Screenplay. All of them are now PGA nominees, and they stand a good chance of receiving multiple Oscar nominations on top of their probable Best Picture nominations. In this outcome, no movie will have more than one above-the-line Oscar before Best Picture is announced – an outcome which hasn’t happened since 1956, when “Around the World in 80 Days” only had Best Adapted Screenplay while no one else had more than one significant victory either.
After the BAFTA nominations, this possibility got a step closer to reality, thanks to the overperformance of “A Complete Unknown.” Its Best Film, Best Supporting Actor, and Best Adapted Screenplay nominations now open the door for Chalamet to surprise Adrien Brody with a Best Actor win at BAFTA before a likely SAG win that would probably seal the deal for him at the Oscars. As such, without Brody to add onto a likely Corbet win in Best Director, “The Brutalist” would be in extra trouble for Best Picture with only one above-the-line win at most.
Then again, if “Anora” doesn’t have Mikey Madison rally back in Best Actress over Moore, and if “Emilia Pérez” doesn’t find a big upset win to add to Saldana’s, everyone will be in the same position as “The Brutalist” then. If all that happens, Best Picture will genuinely be up in the air in a way it has never been in the modern era before the evening’s final envelope is opened.
For many years, the eventual Best Picture winner only has one other above-the-line win. Among those, “The Shape of Water” did it with Best Director as its only other major win in 2017, “Spotlight” and “Argo” only had Best Adapted Screenplay wins in 2015 and 2012, “Crash” only had Best Original Screenplay in 2005, “Chicago” only had Best Supporting Actress in 2002, “Gladiator” only had Best Actor in 2000, and “Titanic,” “Braveheart,” and “Platoon” only had Best Director in 1997, 1995 and 1986. However, with the exception of “Spotlight,” all these movies had the right combination of wins below the line to secure Best Picture anyway.
In addition, there were still other movies that had more than one above-the-line Oscar in those years, even if they didn’t win Best Picture. “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri” had Best Actress and Best Supporting Actor in 2017, “The Revenant” won Best Director and Best Actor in 2015, “Django Unchained” took Best Supporting Actor and Best Original Screenplay in 2012, “Brokeback Mountain” won Best Director and Best Adapted Screenplay in 2005, “The Pianist” swept Best Director, Best Actor and Best Adapted Screenplay in 2002, “Traffic” took Best Director, Best Supporting Actor and Best Adapted Screenplay in 2000, “L.A. Confidential,” “Good Will Hunting” and “As Good as It Gets” each had two major Oscars besides Best Picture in 1997, and so did “The Usual Suspects” in 1995. For that matter, “Hannah and Her Sisters” swept the supporting acting categories and Best Original Screenplay in 1986, yet it still fell to “Platoon” in Best Picture.
No matter what happens in Best Picture, something manages to win more than one of the seven other major categories. The last time there was an exception was in 1956 when they were evenly split between “Giant,” “The King and I,” “Anastasia,” “Lust for Life,” “Written on the Wind,” “The Red Balloon,” and Best Adapted Screenplay winner and eventual Best Picture winner “Around the World in 80 Days.” Somehow, maybe it means something that one of the worst-reviewed and ultimately lowest-ranked Best Picture winners won after everything else canceled out – which would certainly benefit the low-reviewed and much-maligned “Emilia Pérez” if history repeats itself in 2024.
There is still a straightforward scenario where things revert to normal in other categories, if not in Best Picture. “The Brutalist” could still brush off the very ominous surge of “A Complete Unknown” and somehow get Brody to hold back Chalamet anyway, even if a Brody/Corbet combination of wins doesn’t put it over the top in Best Picture. “Anora” could get Madison back on track over Moore and restore its all-important Best Actress/Best Original Screenplay win combination, regardless of how much good that does in the big picture. In a nightmare scenario for some, “Emilia Pérez” could be so powerful with industry voters only that Jacques Audiard and/or Karla Sofia Gascon pulls an upset to seal its victory. Or maybe it’s time to add a new shocking possibility: “A Complete Unknown” surges to a Chalamet win and a Best Adapted Screenplay nomination, “Conclave” could actually have competition in the latter category after all.
Nonetheless, until any of that happens or doesn’t happen, the most likely scenario is the most evenly divided one, even if such a thing hasn’t happened in almost 70 years. The extra irony is that this comes after two of the biggest sweeps since the expanded ballot era began, when “Everything Everywhere All at Once” had the largest above-the-line sweep of all time in 2022 and “Oppenheimer” took half the major categories in 2023. Yet it is one thing for the Oscars to return to a “spread the wealth” philosophy and another to overcorrect this thoroughly.
When the final envelope is read, “The Brutalist,” “A Complete Unknown,” “The Substance,” “A Real Pain,” “Emilia Pérez,” “Anora,” and “Conclave” could all be in the same boat, with only one above-the-line Oscar each before the biggest one of all is presented. Still, since half of these films have no chance at winning Best Picture, and the other half will more clearly know where they stand after the technical Oscars are awarded, it might not be that hard to figure out a winner – especially if “The Brutalist” and “Emilia Pérez” have multiple below-the-line wins, or either “Anora” or “Conclave” takes Best Editing.
Nonetheless, even if “Anora” or “Conclave” have the same Best Picture/Screenplay/Editing win combination that “Argo” had, or if “The Brutalist” or “Emilia Pérez” get away with two or three below-the-line wins to make up for having just one other major win, this could still be a year where Oscars are handed out like never before in the modern era. Of course, if the guilds, BAFTA and SAG, end up boosting one film above all else, that film may seize at least one extra win no one is projecting at the moment and make it business as usual. But until then, it can be truly said for once that nothing is above the pack right now.
What do you think will be nominated for Best Picture now that BAFTA and PGA have chimed in? Do you think we’re heading for a split Oscar night before Best Picture is announced? Please let us know in the comments below or on Next Best Picture’s X account, and be sure to check out Next Best Picture’s latest Oscar predictions here.
You can follow Robert and hear more of his thoughts on the Oscars & Film on X @Robertdoc1984