Post-Golden Globes, Demi Moore has gained a tremendous amount of momentum in the Best Actress race with a beautiful narrative. She was told that she was a “popcorn actress” early in her career, and she hadn’t gotten serious recognition as an actor until this Golden Globe win. The film she stars in defies the beauty standards of being an older woman in Hollywood and has had critics, audience, and now, the industry rallying behind her. It is a compelling Oscar narrative we call “the comeback narrative,” and it is her ultimate weapon toward winning the Oscar for Best Actress. And then there were the SAG nominations.
Demi Moore, Mikey Madison, Cynthia Erivo, and Karla Sofia Gascon are the four safest bets for most people when it comes to predicting the Oscar nominations. Pundits and award circuits have different views on who the fifth slot is going to be. Some have predicted this would be Angelina Jolie’s chance to land another Oscar nomination. Some say the Academy voters loved Amy Adams in “Nightbitch,” considering often she’s been nominated before. However, when the SAG nominations were announced on January 8th, most critics were surprised to see Pamela Anderson in “The Last Showgirl” land in the fifth spot for Best Actress. They were even more surprised when Jamie Lee Curtis also landed a Best Supporting Actress nomination (and would continue to follow this up with a BAFTA a few days later in the same category). Many are comparing their SAG nominations to Annette Bening and Jodie Foster’s track with “Nyad” last year. Will the two of them also receive Oscar nominations?
Demi Moore might be a safe bet for predicting a Best Actress win, but Pamela Anderson has a campaign narrative similar to hers in many ways. In some departments, she even has advantages over Moore. Her no-make-up look shows her commitment to defying beauty standards and embracing being an older woman in Hollywood who the industry once did not take seriously for this type of recognition. The film “The Last Showgirl” is more supported by SAG members than “The Substance,” which has only one SAG nomination following Margaret Qualley’s miss in Best Supporting Actress for Charlie Fargeat’s film.
Moore is still more likely to win SAG over Anderson, especially following her Golden Globe speech, which really helped to bring voters over to her campaign. Winning SAG is a major indicator that she might win the Oscar even without winning at BAFTA or Critics Choice, much like what Michelle Yeoh pulled with “Everything Everywhere All at Once” a few short years ago over Cate Blanchett in “Tar.”
Because Anderson has a similar narrative to Moore, might this sentiment cost Moore some votes at SAG and put a halt to her Oscar hopes? Even though Anderson has not verbally said exactly what Moore has stated in her interviews on the campaign circuit, “The Last Showgirl” speaks for itself as a comeback vehicle for the former “Baywatch” star, and this may cause a split in voters’ minds. Some have already commented that without the added gruesome makeup for “The Substance,” Moore’s performance might not be flashy enough to win at SAG. And let’s also remember what kind of a movie “The Substance” is. For it to propel Moore this far into the conversation to win Best Actress is already pretty substantial, but the Academy has often overlooked horror movies and their performers before.
It is important to note that Demi Moore’s Oscar chances are not over and may only be just beginning. Anderson may not even land in the Oscar five for Best Actress after she failed to capitalize on the momentum of the SAG nomination by missing at BAFTA. Now, a lot of the publicity for “The Last Showgirl” has gone over to Curtis. Moore could use this opening to potentially win at BAFTA and solidify herself as the frontrunner heading into Oscar night. Back in the 2021 race, where no award seemed to be right, BAFTA was the most predictive by giving a win to Frances McDormand for “Nomadland” with Viola Davis winning SAG for “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom,” Andra Day in “The United States vs. Billie Holiday” winning the Golden Globe for Drama, and Carey Mulligan winning at CCA for “Promising Young Woman.”
With Anderson in the mix, Moore’s likelihood to win SAG is a little weaker. I’m not saying Anderson will win SAG. I’m saying the campaign narrative may be too similar, and the vote could split between the two, allowing someone else to possibly prevail. “Wicked” is beloved by the SAG voters and has five nominations overall. Erivo may win over Moore due to how much they adore her movie and a possible split between Moore and Anderson.
Erivo took the role that people knew from the stage and made Ephaba her own. It was not easy, and the actors have recognized that, as have CCA, Golden Globe, and BAFTA, as she hasn’t missed a single precursor leading up to the Oscar nominations next week. Her Ozdust Ball and “Defying Gravity” sequences are scenes actors love and serve as a strong reminder of why they would want to vote for her. Her performance is flashy and transformative, and historically, SAG voters have loved that kind of work.
It is also possible that Madison or Gascon could win at SAG, as they have different narratives than the other ladies in contention. Younger voters, voters who prefer ingenues (or voters who simply love “Anora“), will likely vote for Madison. This narrative has been proven to be effective with Reese Witherspoon winning her SAG and Oscar when she was 29 for “Walk the Line,” Emma Stone was 28 when she won her first Oscar for “La La Land,” Gwyneth Paltrow winning her SAG and Oscar when she was 26 for “Shakespeare in Love, Brie Larson winning SAG and Oscar when she was 26 in “Room” and Jennifer Lawrence winning her SAG and Oscar when she was 22 in “Silver Linings Playbook.”
Gascon’s trailblazing narrative as the first openly trans actor up for an Oscar might also have its appeal to voters, especially as we approach a second Trump Presidency. It is less likely SAG members would vote for her because she’s a non-English speaking actor and international. Typically, SAG just doesn’t vote that way. One such example is when they voted for Julie Christy for “Away for Her” over Marion Cotillard in “La Vie en Rose,” who eventually won the Oscar. If Gascon wins, it’s going to mean quite a bit to the Best Actress overall. SAG didn’t nominate MJ Rodriguez in “Pose” when she won the Globe in 2021 and was nominated for the Emmy. The fact that Gascon got in means there might be enough votes to push her towards the win. SAG loves celebrating diversity and inclusivity. Back in 2021, SAG’s actors were all POC winners for the first time in their history. They pushed for Yeoh and Gladstone when BAFTA went in another direction. One of those women won the Oscar, while the other did not. What would Gascon’s trajectory be if she were to win SAG?
It’ll be interesting to see if the similar campaign narratives for Anderson and Moore leads to an unexpected outcome at SAG, one that could tip this competitive race into a new and exciting direction. What do you think though? Who are you predicting to win at SAG and the Oscars? Please let us know in the comments below or on Next Best Picture’s X account, and be sure to check out Next Best Picture’s latest Oscar predictions here.
You can follow Reza and hear more of his thoughts on the Oscars and Film on X at @kelitikfilm