The last several years have been marked by the Oscars finally honoring a long-beloved, long-overdue figure, whether it was Paul Thomas Anderson in 2025, Sean Baker in 2024, Christopher Nolan in 2023, Jamie Lee Curtis in 2022, or Will Smith in 2021. For a long time, 2026 was presumed to be the year when Tom Cruise would be next in that line, but “Digger” has put a few holes in that theory and then some. So if this year isn’t defined by Cruise finally getting his long-awaited due, which overdue figure, if any, will take his place with a triumph that defines Oscar night?
Denis Villeneuve – “Dune: Part Three”
The last three years, in particular, have been dominated by an auteur director winning, at long last, after years or decades of being snubbed or beaten. If those specifics hold this year, Denis Villeneuve would have to fit that bill, especially after he wasn’t even nominated for “Dune” or “Dune: Part Two.”
“Dune: Part Three” may already be the last chance to turn this race into something other than a “La Bola Negra” vs. “The Odyssey” showdown for the rest of the year. If it does make this a three-film race, then Villeneuve might not only break into Best Director at long last for a “Dune” film – and for the first time for any film since “Arrival” 10 years ago – he may be given an extra edge over a past winner like Nolan or relative newcomers like Los Javis. And if “Dune: Part Three” really is “The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King” 2.0, that would put Villeneuve on Peter Jackson’s path as well.
Nomination snubs aside, Villeneuve hasn’t had to wait as long as Nolan, Baker, or Anderson to get their Oscar moment, so he may not have the backing and sentiment they did when their time finally came. Yet if audiences and voters have enough sentiment to give “Dune: Part Three” Best Picture as a final farewell to the saga and to a pre-Skydance Warner Bros., then there’s likely no way to do it without giving Villeneuve a win, too.
Villeneuve and “Dune” finally winning at the end of their time together would rival Nolan finally winning for “Oppenheimer,” Anderson finally winning for “One Battle After Another,” and Baker being elevated to the next level for “Anora” after years as an indie film leader. If history is going to repeat itself, this seems like the easiest way to do it.
Martin McDonagh – “Wild Horse Nine”
This year’s next most overdue director/auteur who’s been waiting years for his due is technically one who already got it. Before Martin McDonagh even made “In Bruges,” let alone “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri,” “The Banshees of Inisherin,” and “Wild Horse Nine,” he won an Oscar in 2006 for Best Live Action Short Film for “Six Shooter.” Yet after two straight losses for across-the-board-nominated full-length movies, McDonagh is still considered overdue for an above-the-line Oscar.
Unlike Villeneuve to this point, McDonagh might have the easier path to a major Oscar night win, after “Wild Horse Nine” cemented itself as the Best Original Screenplay frontrunner. However, since McDonagh lost that category to then-unprecedented winners like “Get Out” and “Everything Everywhere All at Once” in his last two tries, it may warrant extra caution this time – whether against competitors like “The Debut” or “Fjord,” more unconventional options like “Obsession” and “Club Kid,” or something else like “Artificial” that might not seem win-competitive yet.
If McDonagh wins anyway, it won’t be seen as a breakthrough on the level of Nolan, Anderson, Baker, or even Smith. Nonetheless, for someone who’s waited almost 20 years to be honored for a full-length movie, and for someone who came all too close with his last two, it might be close enough to make him the overdue – to a point – star of this season.
John Malkovich – “Wild Horse Nine”
There’s a case to be made that the overdue star of a season isn’t a director, unlike the last three years. There’s also a case to be made that “Wild Horse Nine” has a way more fitting figure for that honor than McDonagh, especially since they have never won any Oscars before. And while McDonagh is still presumed to be the Best Original Screenplay favorite, it was his leading man who got the biggest raves and Oscar buzz for this movie at the fall festivals.
As a result, there is a Best Actor favorite who hasn’t been nominated in decades, has been a notable star since the 1980’s, has waited 40+ years for the Academy to catch up, has lost a few times in the meantime, and may now win for playing a tragic symbol of America’s outsized influence on the world, but it isn’t Cruise. With Cruise no longer a frontrunner, John Malkovich now seems to have only “Elsinore’s” Andrew Scott and “The Odyssey’s” Matt Damon to worry about, if not others who could surge up like Ryan Gosling, Anthony Ippolito, and Jaafar Jackson. But all it might take is one or two viral, Malkovich-ian televised awards speeches to seal the deal, and to make an Oscar season’s defining, decades-in-the-making coronation belong to an actor again.
Paul Giamatti – “The Debut”
Malkovich isn’t the only decades-long star and long-overlooked icon who’s the odds-on favorite for an Oscar right now. Over in Best Supporting Actor, that honor currently belongs to Paul Giamatti, who backed up his own high expectations at fall festivals for “The Debut.” And after losing for “The Holdovers” just three years ago, the desire to give Giamatti a make-up Oscar for that loss – and other misses like his loss for “Cinderella Man,” total snub for “Sideways,” and more over the years – is extra fresh right now. Yet unlike Malkovich, Giamatti feels more like a placeholder favorite than a season-long frontrunner. Because Julianne Moore has the loudest, showiest raves and scenes in “The Debut” and has been pegged as a truly overwhelming favorite in Best Actress, Giamatti looks overshadowed by comparison. Therefore, if all the oxygen and excitement over “The Debut” remains with Moore by such a wide margin, will Giamatti eventually fade out if there’s less to go around for him?
Ironically, Malkovich gives Sam Rockwell the exact same problem in “Wild Horse Nine,” which is another big reason Giamatti hasn’t been overtaken yet. Barring a surge from another candidate who isn’t in someone else’s shadow from their own movie, like Andrew Garfield or Guitarricadelafuente, Giamatti still has the best narrative to keep him ahead of the others, and he may still wind up the last “overdue” potential winner standing this season.
Edward Norton – “The Invite”
Someone else in Best Supporting Actor has waited decades for his Oscar, just lost another opportunity recently, broke back into contention in a wild comedy-drama that plays almost like a play, and is from an A24 movie. At the very least, Edward Norton’s attention in “The Invite” is almost equal to that of co-stars Olivia Wilde, Penelope Cruz, and Seth Rogen, especially for a late, game-changing monologue he reportedly wrote himself.
Norton’s early breakthroughs in “Primal Fear” and “American History X” made it easy to assume he’d win an Oscar at some point. Decades later, and after two more losses for “Birdman” and “A Complete Unknown,” he’s more overdue in terms of losses than Malkovich, Giamatti, McDonagh, or Villeneuve. If this becomes his fifth opportunity, and if “The Invite” has a slew of other nominations in much tougher fields, he could be the best chance to give “The Invite” a collective win, and one for himself as well.
Mike Leigh – “Tender Loving Care”
None of these figures may have won a major Oscar before, yet the assumption is that most, if not all, of them will still get another chance or two before their careers are over. For the moment, that cannot be said about Leigh, if his words about “Tender Loving Care” being his final film aren’t eventually reversed.
As such, no one else this season has a case like this; they need to be honored now, after all the times they weren’t before, since there won’t be another chance. On paper, “Tender Loving Care” has the exact reception it needs to make the case for Leigh’s eighth nomination and first win, with a perfect Rotten Tomatoes score and an 85 on Metacritic. But on paper, it also has the exact disadvantages to make that unlikely, with a Best Original Screenplay field that already has “Wild Horse Nine,” “The Debut,” “Obsession,” “Fjord,” “Club Kid,” “Artificial,” and others crowding it out for a nomination and a win.
Can the Academy’s love for Leigh – or at least they’re familiarity with him – overcome all those hurdles? “Tender Loving Care” might not need an unlikely Best Picture nomination to get Leigh a Best Original Screenplay nomination. Still, it would probably need it to be considered for a win. Or, by that point, will the narrative of Leigh’s final nomination and trip to the Oscars loom so large that it can put him ahead of the screenplays of much bigger movies with more nominations? The last few years have been defined by making overdue past nominees the star of both Oscar night and of the season at large. Yet as much as someone like Malkovich, Giamatti, Norton, Villeneuve, or even McDonagh might fit that tradition this year, they still wouldn’t take it to another level the way Leigh would, aside from being the biggest longshot.
Which overdue Oscar contender do you think has the best chance to win this year? Are there any other contenders who have a shot? Please let us know in the comments section below and on Next Best Picture’s X account, and check out Next Best Picture’s latest Oscar predictions here.
