It seems that, approaching every stop along this awards season, we’ve done the same song and dance: predict “One Battle After Another” for the big prizes and acknowledge “Sinners” as the potential spoiler. The prospect of Ryan Coogler’s opus winning the top two Oscars of Best Picture and Best Director has been discussed throughout the year. Still, it seems this entire awards journey has simply solidified Paul Thomas Anderson’s own opus as the easy winner. While these two represent a clear top two for the Academy, “One Battle After Another” has bested “Sinners” at nearly every important award: PGA, DGA, BAFTA, CCA, and so on. That being said, the SAG ensemble win for “Sinners,” particularly in the midst of Oscar voting, has given some hope that “Sinners” can garner some goodwill to boost it in the Best Picture race. The question then becomes how possible is this or any other theories favoring “Sinners” for Best Picture at the Oscars?
The main reason many have entertained “Sinners” for so long this season is not just the film’s overall love, but also the other categories it is in contention for. With the film highly competitive in two acting categories, Michael B. Jordan and Wunmi Mosaku, at least two or three craft awards, and a guaranteed Best Original Screenplay win for Coogler, how many awards could it win and still lose Best Picture? The closest comparison is to “The Piano,” which won two awards, including Best Original Screenplay, while losing Best Picture and Director to the Best Adapted Screenplay winner, “Schindler’s List.” If somehow “One Battle After Another” lost, its package of Best Director, Adapted Screenplay, and a Supporting Actor win for Sean Penn would be akin to films like “The Pianist” and “Traffic.” While these two are more recent, they still represent an Academy of old, and expose what we’ve known all season: that we’re dealing with two across-the-board juggernaut films in a way we haven’t really before (“12 Years A Slave” and “Gravity” in 2013 come closest), and the final outcome is going to become something we haven’t seen before. Not only are they both auteurist spectacles with over thirteen nominations each (the first time two films have done so in Academy history), but they have also ignited the conversation in the film spheres and beyond, in ways we only see so many times each decade. While it’s been clear for a while that “Sinners” would easily win Best Picture and Director in a world without “One Battle After Another,” it is now facing one of the most beloved and overdue filmmakers, releasing his biggest, most celebrated work yet.
If we’re to entertain a shift in momentum for “Sinners,” the question that comes up is, why is this shift happening? “Sinners” has been one of the most visible and discussed films all year, so a SAG ensemble win, while a very nice representation for the film, surely wouldn’t be pushing the film onto any new voters. Those who vote for it above “One Battle After Another” probably would’ve done so already. Something like “CODA” winning the SAG gave visibility to a widely considered underdog, which just isn’t the case here. With other films like “Moonlight,” “Green Book,“ “Spotlight,” and “Parasite,“ which came up the middle in the end, these films felt like anecdotes to the frontrunner they took down. All these examples of upsets had frontrunners with knocks against them that “One Battle After Another“ just doesn’t possess, whether it’s losing key precursors or losing to the more acclaimed movie; nothing here applies to predicting “Sinners“ to prevail. In theory, it appeals to the same base that would be voting for “One Battle After Another,“ and while some surely prefer “Sinners,“ the entire industry has spoken in favor of the former, no matter how strong a runner-up “Sinners“ may be. If “Sinners“ had won the PGA, the shift in momentum would be clear, but as is, the SAG win should just be taken as the celebratory night for the film and ensemble that it was, much like “Conclave” received last year.
Understandably, frontrunners can get boring (especially in an Oscar year as long as this one), and a race is far more exciting, but to pretend “One Battle After Another“ has shown any weaknesses to “Sinners“ is simply looking for clues that don’t exist. If we end up in a world where “Sinners“ wins Best Picture, it would be hard to explain using stats and referencing past years, and it would reflect an unprecedented momentum shift you can only predict on vibes. Of course, that and nothing in awards season is impossible. Still, in the likely scenario that “One Battle After Another“ leaves the March ceremony with Best Picture, “Sinners“ fans can take solace in the large win haul it is set to receive from its history-making 16 nominations.
What film do you think is winning Best Picture? What Oscars do you think “Sinners” is most likely to win? Please let us know in the comments section below and on our X account, click here here for the most recent tally of awards season winners, here for Next Best Picture’s precursor tracker, and here for our current Oscar predictions.
