The Critics’ Choice, Golden Globes, NBR, and AFI Top 10 are the big early-season quartet that sets the tone for the entire Oscar voting season. Those who make all four are almost always guaranteed a Best Picture nomination if not more, while those who make three out of four are sturdy but still vulnerable, and those with two, one, or zero mentions still have a long way to go.
Now, after Golden Globes nomination morning and last week’s NBR/AFI/CCA trifecta, we can now see which films are already far ahead in the Oscar race, which ones are stable, which need a lifeline soon, and which are on life support.
4 out of 4 mentions: “One Battle After Another,” “Sinners,” “Marty Supreme,” “Frankenstein“
Usually, those who are four-for-four with NBR/AFI/CCA/Globes are the leaders of the race, and that’s true for at least two films here. “Marty Supreme“ had some notable snubs for its Supporting Actresses and for Josh Safdie in Director at the Globes, so it may still have work to do to prove it will be more than just Timothée Chalamet’s coronation. And while “Frankenstein“ had its very best possible day at the Globes, with nominations for Guillermo del Toro in Best Director and even the overlooked Oscar Isaac for Best Actor Drama, it isn’t near being considered a threat to win it all yet.
If anything, this cements “One Battle After Another“ and “Sinners“ as the top two so far, no matter how wide the gap may actually be. “Sinners“ did better with the international-based Globes voters than so many Black-led and Black-made films in recent years, though that makes Wunmi Mosaku’s omission from Best Supporting Actress in favor of Emily Blunt extra curious. Nonetheless, perhaps this will calm some early fears that “Sinners“ will crumble with international and industry voters in future major awards shows; it still needs a lot more inroads with them to seriously threaten its fellow Warner Bros frontrunner.
Regardless, as with almost every film that has made all four of these groups in the expanded ballot era, “One Battle After Another,” “Sinners,” “Marty Supreme,“ and “Frankenstein“ are locked in for Best Picture nominations. Yet that doesn’t tell us anything we didn’t already know before the last seven days.
3 out of 4 mentions: “Hamnet,” “Train Dreams,” “Jay Kelly,” “Wicked: For Good,“ “Bugonia“
Missing only one of the four major early-season groups isn’t too bad on paper, depending on what the one miss is. Although “Hamnet“ missed the NBR top 10, making the top 10 at AFI and getting easy Critics’ Choice and Golden Globes nominations easily canceled that out, keeping it secure in Best Picture, whether it is still a threat to win it all or not.
The other four are perhaps the biggest question marks on the bubble, especially considering their misses and trajectories. “Wicked: For Good“ and “Jay Kelly“ overcame some divisive reviews and backlash to make NBR/AFI/CCA, and looked to join the 4-for-4 group at the Golden Globes, which would be a safe bet for films like this with the old Globes voters. But the new school voters were not as bowled over by a hit musical sequel or a star-studded industry-flavored movie as the old ones were, giving them Best Picture snubs that sent shockwaves through the bubble and were great gifts to others on it.
In particular, “Train Dreams” couldn’t afford to have either one of those movies get a leg up. It too made NBR/AFI/CCA and missed the Globes, yet, as an artsy critical darling with less built-in industry appeal, any miss is riskier for it – like it was for Clint Bentley and Greg Kwedar’s “Sing Sing“ when it only missed the Globes early last season. But now if “Wicked: For Good“ and “Jay Kelly“ are in equally dire straits, after missing with a group more tailor-made for them, maybe that gives “Train Dreams“ a comforting consolation.
However, all three may need to worry about “Bugonia“ and its surge in AFI, CCA, and Globe nominations after missing NBR. Yorgos Lanthimos and Emma Stone’s least critically acclaimed awards season movie together looked to be just on the outside of the bubble a few weeks ago. Still, now it is squarely back on, especially after the big Globes misses by its competition.
At least, “Bugonia,” “Train Dreams,” “Wicked: For Good,“ and “Jay Kelly“ are the top American competition for the last three Best Picture spots, against as many as two international rivals.
2 out of 4 mentions: “Sentimental Value,” “It Was Just an Accident,” “Avatar: Fire and Ash“
Those two international rivals aren’t “Sentimental Value“ or “It Was Just an Accident,“ who are securely in despite their misses last week. Given the bias and/or rules against international films at NBR, AFI, and the Critics’ Choice, it wasn’t cause to panic that “Sentimental Value“ missed the NBR top 10 and got no AFI mentions, or that “It Was Just an Accident“ missed NBR and largely missed at Critics’ Choice. Yet, between “Sentimental Value“ still doing big at Critics’ Choice and “It Was Just an Accident“ getting a coveted AFI special award, they could feel confident going into Golden Globes nomination morning.
The Globes backed that up and more, as each got Best Picture nominations as well as nominations in Best Director and Best Screenplay, cementing them as the top two in NEON’s crop of international contenders. As such, despite making half of the early quartet, these two are almost assuredly locked in for Best Picture.
Yet on the other hand, making half of the early quartet has been deemed the kiss of death for “Avatar: Fire and Ash.” Despite making NBR and AFI, as its predecessors had, the pattern finally broke when it missed the Critics’ Choice and Golden Globes, as its predecessors had. Between that and some mixed early social reactions, even another $2 billion box office might not guarantee Best Picture consideration like it used to.
1 out of 4 mentions: “No Other Choice,” “The Secret Agent,” “F1: The Movie,” “Rental Family,” “Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery,” “Blue Moon,” “Nouvelle Vague“
The two NEON international films on the bubble did just what they needed to do at the Golden Globes, as “No Other Choice“ and “The Secret Agent“ received the Best Picture, Best International Film, and leading acting nominations they were projected to receive. If there is actually going to be three NEON Best Picture nominations – especially now that “Wicked: For Good,” “Jay Kelly“ and “Train Dreams“ suffered such notable misses – these two are neck-and-neck for which one will complete the trifecta. Nonetheless, since none of them got any more surprising nominations, such as Best Director or Best Screenplay, neither one has exceeded expectations enough to separate from each other or from the rest of the bubble field.
An international film that isn’t expected to do well with NBR, AFI, or the Critics’ Choice can survive with just Golden Globes attention these days. But for American films that only make one of these groups, they are usually anomalies that got lucky once and then fade for the rest of the season.
Given the various tech nominations for “F1: The Movie“ at Critics’ Choice and even a couple at the Golden Globes, maybe it isn’t completely dead in the water for more yet. But for a sequel like “Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery“ to do much worse with these groups than its Best Picture snubbed predecessors did, and for a formerly considered preseason favorite like “Rental Family“ to only rebound with one NBR top 10 mention, there is little, if any, path to come back from that.
“Blue Moon“ and “Nouvelle Vague“ were the two most shocking Golden Globes Best Picture nominees, with the former riding Best Actor contender Ethan Hawke’s coattails and the latter finally paying off early film festival buzz. However, it could just be that the Golden Globes voters really wanted to honor Richard Linklater today, while future voters probably won’t be that eager, at least for these movies as a whole.
0 out of 4 mentions: “The Testament of Ann Lee,” “Is This Thing On?“, “Weapons“
Movies that get no mentions in the early four groups and still make Best Picture anyway are either international favorites like “Amour,” “Drive My Car,” “All Quiet on the Western Front,” “Triangle of Sadness,“ and “I’m Still Here,“ or box office smashes like “District 9“ and “The Blind Side.“
“Weapons“ is a box-office smash that further solidified nominations for Amy Madigan and perhaps for Best Hairstyle and Makeup, but otherwise it remains an Aunt Gladys play only. Neither “The Testament of Ann Lee“ nor “Is This Thing On?“ has opened for Searchlight Pictures yet, but the box office isn’t going to rake in for them, especially after all their major misses already.
Amanda Seyfried, continuing to survive “The Testament of Ann Lee,” missing almost everywhere else, is the only thing that film has going for it, and maybe the Oscar season magic of Searchlight will come in very late for it as it did for “A Complete Unknown“ and “Nightmare Alley.“ But with all three of Searchlight’s award season players barely showing up in the first major week of the race, this really may be a year unlike any Searchlight has suffered before – and at least three fewer problems for stronger bubble films to worry about.
So what do you think will be nominated for Best Picture? What were your reactions to the CCA/GG/NBR/AFI awards? Please let us know in the comments section below and on Next Best Picture’s X account and check out the team’s latest Oscar predictions here.
You can follow Robert and hear more of his thoughts on the Oscars & Film on X @Robertdoc1984
