Oscar-winner Chloé Zhao’s latest film “Hamnet” may end up having even more in common with 1998’s “Shakespeare in Love” than you may think other than just the William Shakespeare connection…
When “Hamnet” premiered in August at the Telluride Film Festival, it was met with an immediate rapturous response from critics and audiences alike. After winning the coveted TIFF People’s Choice Award, an honor previously bestowed upon many Best Picture winners, including “12 Years A Slave” and “Nomadland,” it became evident that Zhao was once again in serious contention for Oscar glory.
Right around that time, though, Paul Thomas Anderson’s critical darling “One Battle After Another” cemented itself as the inevitable Best Picture winner in the eyes of many pundits. Despite not playing any film festivals before its September 26th theatrical release, the film’s universal critical acclaim (currently sitting at a 95 on Metacritic) and clear political rallying cry were firmly established with early reactions, to the point of overshadowing all the fall film festival favorites.
On top of all that, 11-time Oscar nominee Anderson has yet to win an Academy Award, and with many calling “One Battle After Another” one of his most outstanding achievements to date, it’s hard to imagine a world where Anderson doesn’t finally take home at least one award with his strong “overdue” narrative. Additionally, in recent years, we’ve seen the Academy celebrate filmmakers like Sean Baker, The Daniels, and Bong Joon-ho in multiple categories, including Best Director, Screenplay, and Picture. So while some think this Oscar race is tipping in “One Battle After Another’s” favor, “Hamnet” has an important factor on its side: the ability to capture the emotional vote.
Since “Hamnet’s” Telluride (a film festival with a strong correlation of premiering eventual Best Picture winners) debut, the film has dominated the regional festival market, winning top audience prizes from the San Diego International Film Festival, Mill Valley Film Festival, Middleburg Film Festival, and many others. As regional festivals continue to gain influence, this streak of festival wins has allowed the film to build momentum organically, demonstrating that different audiences around the country are responding to Zhao’s vision. Despite the film’s tough, at times brutal subject matter, the emotional catharsis that Zhao leaves viewers with has left both festival audiences and Academy voters sniffling through the credits. And oftentimes, what leaves the strongest impression on Academy voters? The way a film ends, especially one that can pull at the heartstrings.
“Hamnet,” then, has the potential to pull off a Best Picture victory similar to films like “Shakespeare in Love” and “The King’s Speech,” which wound up capturing the hearts of Academy voters and taking over frontrunners “Saving Private Ryan” and “The Social Network,” both of which were considered shoe-in winners and critics favorites for months leading up the Academy Awards. “The King’s Speech” won the TIFF People’s Choice Award early on before it turned the tide during the guild awards, while “Shakespeare in Love” gained crucial momentum with its SAG Ensemble win and eventual Best Actress win for Gwyneth Paltrow.
There’s a world where Anderson gets his overdue win as a director and “Hamnet” still pulls off the big win at the end of the night. Most people would agree that Jessie Buckley, who was previously nominated for her supporting performance in “The Lost Daughter,” is the frontrunner to win Best Actress with her gut-wrenching performance as the grieving Agnes. The Best Adapted Screenplay category is another area where “Hamnet” could potentially win, and it’s worth noting that the author of the source material, Maggie O’Farrell, co-wrote the film adaptation alongside Zhao. The two have already been on the campaign trail together, and it’s rare for a director to collaborate so closely with the original author, giving Focus Features a unique narrative to push to voters. While “Oppenheimer,” “Everything Everywhere All at Once” and even “Anora” years may have conditioned us to expect ballot checking down-the-line every year, we’ve also seen winners like “CODA” and “Green Book” win with an acting award and writing award combined, leaving room for “Hamnet” to swoop in even if Zhao can’t quite pick up a second directing prize.
While “One Battle After Another” could be this year’s critics’ darling, starting off strong with the Critics’ Choice and Golden Globe wins, “Hamnet” is undeniably a critical darling in its own right, currently sitting at a 91 on Metacritic. The film is also expected to be a strong contender in craft categories, including Best Production Design and Costume Design, giving it across-the-board appeal if it lands or receives close to double-digit nominations.
To pull off a victory for “One Battle After Another,” Warner Bros will have to remind voters of the emotional center of the film — the father-daughter dynamic between Bob (Leonardo DiCaprio) and Willa (Chase Infiniti). While the emotional impact of “Hamnet” is more pronounced with its powerful ending, this is not to say that “One Battle After Another” lacks resonance as well. Anderson explores how older generations find themselves lost in trying to raise their kids, caught between wanting to protect them from the world’s dangers while also wanting to see them go out and try to save it anyway. That could resonate for multiple generations of Academy voters. But “Hamnet’s” exploration of grief, artistic expression, and finding the strength to move on from tragedy may just be so overwhelming that nothing else can compete.
We can look to last year’s winner, “Anora,” as a good comparison for how a Best Picture narrative shapes for an eventual winner. While Sean Baker’s acclaimed indie wasn’t necessarily getting audiences crying the same way that “Hamnet” is, the final FYC ads that Neon put out for the film featured the tagline “Follow your heart,” a clear signal (and clever nod to the movie) for Academy voters to vote with their emotions. And as we’ve seen time and time again, in close Oscar races, it’s not a bad bet to go with the film that leaves a bigger emotional impact, just as “Ordinary People,” “The King’s Speech,” “Green Book,” or “CODA.”
There’s a line in Zhao and O’Farrell’s screenplay that may just find itself ringing in the minds of Academy voters: “Keep your heart open.” And if they do just that, this may be more of a race than initially anticipated.
Are you currently predicting “One Battle After Another” or “Hamnet” to win Best Picture? Or perhaps you’re predicting something else entirely? Please let us know in the comments section below and on Next Best Picture’s X account and check out the team’s latest Oscar predictions here.
You can follow Robert and hear more of his thoughts on the Oscars & Film on X @Robertdoc1984
