Phase one of Oscar season is about over, as film festivals have revealed most of the field, critics have finally gotten to score almost all of it, and there is little to no mystery left about the frontrunners and challengers themselves. Now it is finally time for the likes of “One Battle After Another,” “Sinners,” “Hamnet,” “Marty Supreme,” “Sentimental Value,“ and much more to compete in full against each other, as the precursor season begins among regional critics and larger bodies like the Critics’ Choice, Golden Globes, and others.
From now until Oscar nomination morning on January 22nd, the precursors will shape this race into something closer to its final form. Hopefully, over the next month and a half, they will answer some of the major questions we have as we head into the next part of awards season.
Will “One Battle After Another“ Start Sweeping Immediately?
Last precursor season was somewhat unusual by recent standards, as “Anora“ won the most critics awards, but not to the overwhelming amount that Best Picture winners like “Oppenheimer,” “Everything Everywhere All at Once,” “Nomadland,“ and “Parasite“ did, or that critics sweepers turned Oscar runners-up such as “The Power of the Dog“ and “Roma“ accomplished. It took until the guilds for “Anora“ to take full control last year, but many expect that “One Battle After Another“ will not have to wait that long.
If the race for Best Picture is already over, and if voters will finally crown Paul Thomas Anderson and his team as easily as reviewers did, then critics awards and precursors would have to be an “Oppenheimer“ or “Everything Everywhere All at Once“ level cakewalk for “One Battle After Another,“ unless they choose to spread the wealth or introduce real doubt first.
Will Precursors And Voters Be Truly Willing To Fight For “Sinners?”
“Sinners“ does not need much help to be an across-the-board Oscar nominee and a top three or five movie, but winning it all is another matter. Despite “Sinners“ being twice the financial hit that “One Battle After Another“ was, having close to the same level of rave reviews, and offering comparable technical prowess and social relevance, pundits do not seem willing to believe, or make a real case, that it can beat “One Battle After Another“ and other competitors. If regional critics and precursors follow suit, they will be able to hide behind the excuse that “Sinners“ will become another fading blockbuster contender like “Barbie“ or “Dune: Part Two,“ rather than a “Moonlight“ that can go all the way despite certain biases against it.
Maybe “Sinners“ winning as many critic awards as “One Battle After Another“ is a long shot. Yet “Moonlight“ was at least dead even with “La La Land“ at that stage, even while most experts remained convinced the Academy would favor the latter. If enough critic groups are willing to support “Sinners,“ even during a potential “One Battle After Another” onslaught, it could send a signal to Oscar voters to do the same in ways they could not or would not with other recent blockbusters fighting for Best Picture, or for so many recent Black-led and Black-made films after “Moonlight.”
Will Paul Thomas Anderson’s Coronation Restore Order In Best Director?
Even if “Sinners“ or another film threatens “One Battle After Another“ for Best Picture, almost no one believes Ryan Coogler or any other director can threaten Anderson for Best Director this time. If it truly is his moment after all these years, then the precursors should reflect such a landslide, as they have almost every year except 2024.
Every year since 2018 has seen a lopsided precursor sweep for the eventual Best Director winner until last year, when critics’ award leader Brady Corbet barely came out ahead regionally and left enough room for Sean Baker to dominate with the industry. Before 2024, four straight Best Director winners earned 40 or more precursor awards leading up to their Oscar victories, including a previous “it’s his time“ winner in Christopher Nolan in 2023.
If Anderson is undeniable and overdue at that level, Best Director voters should go back to voting in lockstep after last season’s rare “spread the wealth“ year. But if they do not, then races beyond Best Director may be more wide open than expected.
Is Best Actress Really A One-Woman Show For Once?
Since the moment “Hamnet“ finished its first screenings at Telluride and TIFF, pundits have rushed to engrave Jessie Buckley’s name on the Best Actress Oscar. This is unusual for the category in this era, as it has almost always been the wildest and most unpredictable race of the year. But after the Mikey Madison vs. Demi Moore showdown of 2024, the Emma Stone vs. Lily Gladstone battle of 2023, and the Michelle Yeoh vs. Cate Blanchett marathon of 2022, 2025 is being viewed as Buckley versus the field so far.
If precursors follow suit, Buckley will likely earn the most Critics’ Choice wins of any actor this season, which has previously led to easy Oscar wins for Kieran Culkin, Da’Vine Joy Randolph, Ke Huy Quan, and Youn Yuh-jung in this decade. But what if enough groups also want to honor the likes of Stone, Reinate Reinsve, Rose Byrne, Amanda Seyfried, Chase Infiniti, Tessa Thompson, or Jennifer Lawrence? Would a split like that be misleading, or a real sign that Best Actress chaos could return after all?
Will Critics Split Best Supporting Actress Again?
With the exception of Randolph’s historic sweep in 2023, Best Supporting Actress is usually a category that provides very little clarity during precursor season. Leading critics group winner Margaret Qualley was not even nominated in 2024, while the 2022 and 2021 regionals were split among several contenders until the industry coalesced around a single winner.
In a season where Ariana Grande’s frontrunner status has been shaken by the mixed reception of “Wicked: For Good,“multiple candidates from “One Battle After Another,” “Marty Supreme,“ and “Sentimental Value“ threaten to split votes, and the contender with the biggest online passion is “Weapons“ surprise villain Amy Madigan, there is no telling which direction critics will go. Will there be so much chaos that a presumed industry favorite like Grande will glide through in the end, as Zoe Saldaña did last season and Jamie Lee Curtis did in 2022, or will industry voters be influenced enough to get behind whoever the precursors rally around, if they rally behind only one person?
Is Best Supporting Actor About To Tighten Up?
Since Cannes, the early favorite for Best Supporting Actor has been Stellan Skarsgård for “Sentimental Value.“ But between Sean Penn re-entering the conversation with a loud, villainous push in “One Battle After Another,“ Paul Mescal breaking hearts in “Hamnet,“ and fans and pundits embracing Jacob Elordi in “Frankenstein“ and Benicio del Toro in another supporting role for “One Battle After Another,“ the field has clearly tightened.
This could mirror 2017, when Willem Dafoe was the critics’ darling for “The Florida Project,“ only for a more bombastic, industry-friendly performance from Sam Rockwell in “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri“ to take the top prizes. Even if Skarsgård sweeps early precursors as expected, will that be enough to hold off a more showy challenger like Penn, or a more emotionally devastating one like Mescal or Elordi later on? If one of them upsets Skarsgård in early groups, will that signal a tight race throughout the season, or one that ultimately tilts hard in the opposite direction?
Is Best Actor Really Down To Just Timothée Or Leo?
After several preseason Best Actor favorites stumbled, only two names are currently being positioned as potential winners. Now that the “Marty Supreme“ review embargo has lifted and cemented Timothée Chalamet as the frontrunner, many will argue that he is too strong to lose for a second straight year. However, Leonardo DiCaprio has the full weight of “One Battle After Another“ behind him, giving him the strongest case against Chalamet.
It is easy to frame this as a two-man race between the most decorated young star of this generation and one of the most decorated stars of the last. If that narrative is going to change, this is the moment for precursors to elevate other challengers instead of simply bouncing between Chalamet and DiCaprio. Will they push Ethan Hawke into the conversation for “Blue Moon,“ even after his prior critical sweep did not lead to a nomination? Could they lay the groundwork for “The Secret Agent“ and Wagner Moura as a sleeper, similar to the rise of Fernanda Torres, or start a real push for Joel Edgerton in “Train Dreams“ so he can at least make the final lineup?
Who And What Will Get The Biggest Critics‘ Pushes, And Will They Matter?
Edgerton is just one of several possible passion picks for critics this season, along with “Train Dreams“ itself. Every year, certain actors and films rack up early wins from critics, sparking hopes that the Academy will follow suit. More often than not, however, early favorites like “Sing Sing,” “Challengers,“ Qualley, Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Clarence Maclin, Danielle Deadwyler, and others fail to gain long-term industry traction.
Will the same fate await the likes of Edgerton, Hawke, Byrne, Madigan, Elordi, “Train Dreams,“ various NEON foreign-language contenders, and other critical darlings? Or will some of them break through and maintain momentum all the way to Oscar night, helping to balance out the heartbreak of those who do not?
Who And What Will Be Ignored By Critics And Thrive Anyway?
On the flip side, some actors and films are unlikely to receive much attention from critics groups, but may not need it. Films like “Wicked: For Good,” “Jay Kelly,“ and “Avatar: Fire and Ash“ are unlikely to receive significant traction with critics’ awards. Still, mixed or negative reviews have not stopped industry voters from supporting similar films in the past.
Likewise, even if perceived industry favorites like Chalamet, DiCaprio, Grande, Buckley, and Penn do not dominate the precursor circuit, that alone may not drastically damage their Oscar prospects.
“CODA“ and “Green Book“ won Best Picture with very little critics’ support, while the likes of Baker, Curtis, Anthony Hopkins, Eddie Redmayne, Jessica Chastain, and Alicia Vikander picked up a few prizes before winning the biggest ones of all. The question now is who will falter with critics only to receive an industry resurrection, and who will ultimately prove just how much, or how little, the precursor season truly matters.
So what do you think? Who do you think will be the early precursor favorite before we hear from the guilds and the televised awards? Please let us know in the comments section below and on Next Best Picture’s X account and check out the team’s latest Oscar predictions here.
You can follow Robert and hear more of his thoughts on the Oscars & Film on X @Robertdoc1984
