An Oscar season that really started with the release of “Sinners” in April 2025 will finally end on March 15th, 2026. Yet after almost a full year of debating and asking questions over how Oscar night will go, we already know how a great deal of it will end. In fact, when it comes to the eight major categories, half of them were already settled weeks ago, if not months ago, which is usually the case in every season.
As such, how much suspense is the actual Oscar ceremony going to give us, and will it be any more or any less than any other recent Oscar night? For a comparison, here is where the eight major categories stand going into this year’s Oscars, and where they stood before the other ceremonies this decade.
2025: Four locks [Best Director, Best Actress, Best Original Screenplay, Best Adapted Screenplay], two near-locks [Best Picture, Best Supporting Actor], two toss-ups [Best Actor, Best Supporting Actress]
2024: Three locks [Best Supporting Actor, Best Supporting Actress, Best Adapted Screenplay], two near-locks [Best Picture, Best Actor], three toss-ups [Best Director, Best Actress, Best Original Screenplay]
2023: Four locks [Best Picture, Best Director, Best Supporting Actor, Best Supporting Actress], three near-locks [Best Actor, Best Original Screenplay, Best Adapted Screenplay], one toss-up [Best Actress]
2022: Three locks [Best Picture, Best Director, Best Supporting Actor], one near-lock [Best Adapted Screenplay], four toss-ups [Best Actor, Best Actress, Best Supporting Actress, Best Original Screenplay]
2021: Four locks [Best Director, Best Actor, Best Supporting Actor, Best Supporting Actress], one near-lock [Best Picture], three toss-ups [Best Actress, Best Original Screenplay, Best Adapted Screenplay]
2020: Three locks [Best Picture, Best Director, Best Supporting Actor], three presumed near-locks [Best Actor, Best Supporting Actress, Best Original Screenplay], two toss-ups [Best Actress, Best Adapted Screenplay]
Like most years, the winners of half or nearly half of this year’s major Oscars were settled long ago. This time around, the settled categories happen to be Best Director after Paul Thomas Anderson closed the deal at the DGA and BAFTA, Best Actress for perhaps the first time in ages after Jessie Buckley’s televised sweep, and both Screenplay categories for perhaps the first time in even longer thanks to the historic dominance of “Sinners” and “One Battle After Another.”
Best Adapted Screenplay is the only above-the-line category that has been this locked two years in a row, although “Conclave’s” sweep last year was nothing compared to the one that “One Battle After Another” has had in this category. But Best Original Screenplay is the complete opposite of what it was last year, when “Anora,” “The Substance,” and “A Real Pain” all had a case to win, whereas “Sinners” has overwhelmed presumed win-competitive rivals like “Sentimental Value,” “It Was Just an Accident,” and “Marty Supreme” from the jump.
This year does have more suspense in the acting categories, especially since Best Actress is the only mortally locked race, rather than the only suspenseful one for once. Some would argue that Best Supporting Actor is now a lock thanks to Sean Penn winning BAFTA and the ACTOR, yet since he isn’t a season-long sweeper and some still believe there could be a late push for Stellan Skarsgard or even Delroy Lindo, there is more wiggle room for an upset than there is for Best Actress. Nevertheless, no one would argue it is the kind of toss-up Best Actor and Best Supporting Actress has turned into, or the kind Best Actress was in each of the last five years.
Many would also argue that Best Picture should be a lock, too, despite “Sinners” beating “One Battle After Another” in a major competition for the first time at the ACTOR Awards. Still, “One Battle After Another” can only consider itself a near-lock despite all its other guild wins, just like “Anora” was last year after winning the PGA and DGA. Yet because “Anora” pulled ahead so late, and because “One Battle After Another” has such a formidable No. 2 to hold off in “Sinners,” neither of them could go into Oscar night feeling completely safe – not like “Oppenheimer,” “Everything Everywhere All at Once,” and “Nomadland” did in the years where they won as expected.
Despite the late success of “Anora,” none of the other categories it was favored in, like Best Director, Best Actress, and Best Original Screenplay, were ever settled, and it was never certain that it could or would sweep all three. That was where the bulk of last year’s suspense and actual mystery came from, whereas 2023 only really had Best Actress as a 50-50 race, while categories like Best Actor, Best Original Screenplay, and Best Adapted Screenplay were mostly locked but not foregone conclusions the entire season.
2022 was another year like 2024 in which Best Picture appeared largely settled, but few were certain how big the margin of victory would be. Hence, while “Everything Everywhere All at Once” had Best Picture, Best Director, and Best Supporting Actor sewn up before the Oscars, sweeping Best Actress, Best Supporting Actress, and Best Original Screenplay too was the biggest surprise of the night. Otherwise, all that year had going for it was the Best Actor toss-up between Brendan Fraser, Austin Butler, and Colin Farrell, along with whether “Women Talking” would hold off the fast-charging “All Quiet on the Western Front” in Best Adapted Screenplay.
2021 was perhaps the closest thing to a toss-up for Best Picture going into the Oscars, even though “CODA” took all the momentum from early frontrunner “The Power of the Dog” with wins at the PGA and ACTOR. Yet because it had just two other Oscar nominations and only one locked win in Best Supporting Actor, “CODA” was only a near Best Picture lock, with its hopes hinging on the toss-up race in Best Adapted Screenplay. Otherwise, Best Actress and Best Original Screenplay were the only other major categories that were still up in the air all the way to the end.
2020 was a rare case where a near-locked category didn’t go the way everyone had expected, when a supposedly secure Best Actor win for Chadwick Boseman went to Anthony Hopkins at the very end instead. Even with the evidence of Hopkins’s late surge, most everyone figured Boseman would hold on – much like the assumption that “1917” and Sam Mendes would hold off “Parasite” and Bong Joon-Ho in Best Picture and Best Director the previous year.
In truth, those have been the last truly big surprises in a major category on Oscar night, as every other result that was unpredictable before the ceremony came in what was at least considered a toss-up race first. As such, if something like “Sinners” winning Best Picture or anyone beating Penn in Best Supporting Actor happens, that will go down as the biggest Oscar upset of the decade. In contrast, any result in categories like Best Actor and Best Supporting Actress will be chaotic, but in line with how fractured those races were going in.
Although we all spend months on end getting ready for the Oscars, by the time the ceremony starts, we pretty much know well in advance how most of the three-plus hours of actual results will go. Even beyond the major categories this year, below-the-line Oscars like Best Score, Best Animated Feature, Best Song, Best Makeup and Hairstyling, Best Production Design, and Best Costume Design were already settled right around the New Year. And even in categories over the years that have remained in doubt up to the end, the winner is usually one season-long heavy favorite or the other, with little in the vein of “Moonlight’s” Best Picture win, Joon-Ho’s Best Director win, or Hopkins’ Best Actor win that really leaves us completely stunned.
“Sinners” defeating “One Battle After Another” could be an exception, or maybe wins in the toss-up categories for Michael B. Jordan and Wunmi Mosaku can give that outcome away ahead of time. Beyond that, any real mystery left in this year’s Oscars will likely be found in other categories like the inaugural Best Casting Oscar – and whether that shores up a Best Picture win package for “Sinners” or “One Battle After Another” – the Best International Feature race between “The Secret Agent” and “Sentimental Value,” potentially critical categories like Best Editing and Best Cinematography, and the always chaotic Best Documentary Feature.
Compared to last year, one might argue this year will have a less suspenseful finale, especially if one believes “One Battle After Another” will just win half or more of the major categories in the end, after all, like “Anora,” “Oppenheimer,” and “Everything Everywhere All at Once” did. But thanks in large part to “Sinners,” and thanks to the late BAFTA and ACTOR curveballs in most of the acting races, 2025 will be another season where not quite every significant Oscar was won well in advance, even though half if not a majority of them still were.
The remaining mysteries of the 2025 awards season will be settled at last on March 15th.
Who do you think is winning Best Picture this Sunday at the Oscars? Which film will win the most Academy Awards? Do you think it will be “Sinners” or “One Battle After Another?” Please let us know in the comments section below and on Next Best Picture’s X account, click here here for the most recent tally of awards season winners, here for Next Best Picture’s precursor tracker, and here for their current Oscar predictions.
You can follow Robert and hear more of his thoughts on the Oscars & Film on X @Robertdoc1984
