NEON has long established itself as a studio to watch out for, particularly during awards season. The studio already has two Best Picture wins under its belt, despite being founded in 2017, and its continued awards presence and championing of international cinema have solidified the studio as one to watch. Its track record at the Cannes Film Festival speaks for itself, with a now 6-year-long streak of distributing Palme d’Or winners, two of which are also Best Picture winners. However, this year is by far the studio’s biggest to date, especially considering the numerous buzzy international features on their slate.
From big Cannes winners like “It Was Just an Accident,” “Sirât,” “The Secret Agent” to a top Oscar contender like “Sentimental Value” to the highly anticipated new Park Chan-wook film “No Other Choice,” NEON has the difficult task of juggling several films that have reasonable awards prospects. There is a real possibility that the studio could go from typically receiving one Best Picture nominee a year to receiving three (a rarity for any studio), due to the high acclaim of the films they have produced. And although they have gotten actors from films like “Anora,” “Anatomy of a Fall,” and “Spencer” nominations in the past, this year will truly be the test of their ability to campaign actors from multiple films. Renate Reinsve, Stellan Skarsgård, Elle Fanning, Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, Wagner Moura, and Lee Byung-hun are all contending for nominations. Today, I’d like to break down each of the main contenders to see what their ceilings are and what these films could realistically receive from the Academy.
So far, “Sentimental Value” seems to be NEON’s likeliest contender, and for good reason. It played like gangbusters at Cannes, receiving “best of the year” notices the moment the embargo lifted. Its 90 on Metacritic is one of the highest of the year, and this tearjerker has clearly won over industry and audiences alike. It won the Grand Prix at Cannes (the second-most prestigious award of the festival) and placed second at the TIFF International People’s Choice, securing a spot as one of the top Oscar contenders of the year in the process. Joachim Trier has also already been Oscar-nominated for his screenplay for “The Worst Person in the World,” so Academy voters are sure to check out his equally acclaimed new film. It certainly doesn’t hurt that the film explores the strained relationship between two daughters and their filmmaker father; the dramedy’s blend of heart and commentary on art is sure to be appealing. Renate Reinsve, Stellan Skarsgård, Elle Fanning, and Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas could all realistically become first-time Oscar nominees due to the passion each brings to such an accessible, actor-friendly film. However, it is Skarsgård who is not only the safest nominee but also the most significant threat to an Oscar win. His turn as a flawed father attempting to reconcile with his children has devastated viewers everywhere, and he could very easily be NEON’s next acting winner after Mikey Madison’s tour de force in “Anora.” “Sentimental Value’s” chances of outright winning Best Picture feel slimmer after the rapturous responses “One Battle After Another” and “Hamnet” received. Still, it remains a top-tier player that should have no trouble securing nominations across the board. Though the Best Director category gets tighter by the minute, I’ll believe a director getting overlooked for a Best Picture nominee that premiered at Cannes when I see it.
Interestingly, the two films that beat out “Sentimental Value” at Cannes and TIFF, respectively, are also from NEON. “It Was Just an Accident,” the latest film from Jafar Panahi (of “No Bears” and “Taxi” fame), was this year’s Palme d’Or winner. A cutting dark comedy, the film follows a car mechanic who, after being brutally interrogated by Iranian authorities years earlier, thinks he recognizes his former torturer. From its incisive commentary about the wounds of the Iranian regime to its stomach-churning moral dilemma, it is no wonder that its emotional resonance resulted in a Palme d’Or win. Aside from “Titane” (which, considering its premise, was never getting into Best Picture no matter how great it was), NEON’s Palme d’Or winners have all landed Best Picture nominations. When you also consider the film’s political urgency, its absurdly high critical scores (an 89 on Metacritic), and the Academy’s growing international influence, I think it would be foolish to doubt this film. However, I will note that the film not managing to secure a top 3 spot at the TIFF International People’s Choice is a tad concerning. Perhaps the film may not play as well with audiences as it did with the more traditional festival crowds? But at the end of the day, a sharp satire from a bona fide auteur that is a Palme d’Or winner is not one I will underestimate anywhere. I think nominations for Best Picture, Best Director, Best Original Screenplay, Best Casting, and Best International Feature are well within reach, and a Best Film Editing nomination could even be in the cards if the film is especially beloved.
The film that won the TIFF International People’s Choice award was none other than “No Other Choice.” Park Chan-wook is back with yet another one of his visually stunning, delightfully twisted, critically acclaimed films. “No Other Choice” follows a family man who, after getting laid off, decides that the only way to secure employment in this outrageously competitive job market is to eliminate the competition. If you had told me earlier this year that “No Other Choice” would play better at TIFF than at Venice, I would probably have laughed at you. Park has passionate fans, but he does not make accessible movies. Yet the film strangely failed to win a prize at the Venice Film Festival, despite being the TIFF audience’s top choice out of the stacked international feature slate.
Park is one of the most respected directors out there without Academy recognition, and while his snub for “Decision to Leave” does make me wonder if Academy voters just do not connect with his style, the fact that he has made a film as adored by audiences as this one also makes me think this may finally be his time. If this film truly resonates, its best chance outside of the Best International Feature Film category is likely the Best Film Editing and Best Adapted Screenplay categories, as the witty writing and insane editing transitions have been highlighted by those who have seen the film. On its very best day, nominations for Best Picture, Best Director, and Best Actor, are all in play. With that being said, I do get the sense that “It Was Just an Accident” and “No Other Choice” cannot both coexist in the Best Picture lineup as deeply political black comedies from highly respected international auteurs. And if only one of the two can get in, “It Was Just an Accident” has arguably won the most prestigious festival award. However, both films are among the timeliest and most urgent of the year, and if NEON is somehow able to push them both into the Best Picture category, they would make history. If there was any year for three international feature films to receive Best Picture nominations, why not this one?
The last above-the-line contender NEON has is “The Secret Agent,” which made headlines for winning two major Cannes awards for Best Director and Best Actor. This is yet another critical juggernaut from NEON, boasting an impressive 87 on Metacritic and standing out as one of the most critically lauded films of the year. Its stunning style, and transportive take on Brazil’s past, as well as Wagner Moura’s career-defining performance, make for one of the most discussed titles of the year. Truly, its main obstacle is the fact that it is seemingly NEON’s 4th or 3rd at best likeliest contender at this point, given the overall perception. However, the film poses a strong chance of landing a Best International Feature Film nomination, while Moura could take advantage of a splintered field and receive his first Oscar nomination in the Best Actor category.
Due to the numerous Cannes titles they have acquired, NEON finds itself in an interesting position, potentially occupying all five international feature film slots. “Sentimental Value,” “It Was Just an Accident,” “No Other Choice,” “The Secret Agent,” and “Sirât” have all been submitted by their respective countries for the Oscar, and the first four are some of the most beloved films of the year, let alone international films. “Sirât” also received glowing reviews from Cannes and has been praised for its subversive style, so it could feasibly receive a nomination as well. However, I think the strong passion for other titles such as the devastating “The Voice of Hind Rajab” or off-beat quirky dramedy, “The Love That Remains,” could ensure NEON gets at most four of the five slots.
Ultimately, I do think the Golden Globes will be the true test of NEON’s awards campaign. If this highly international awards body is able to prop up multiple of their contenders, especially in the top two categories of Best Motion Picture – Drama and Best Motion Picture – Comedy, then NEON may be set up for success. Currently, I believe “Sentimental Value” and “It Was Just an Accident” are the films of theirs that will be nominated for Best Picture. Still, I do see a scenario where either “No Other Choice” or “The Secret Agent” could sneak into the top ten. But no matter what happens, this is certainly NEON’s biggest year to date. It has multiple Best Picture contenders, acting contenders across all four categories, an animated feature contender in “Arco,” a documentary feature contender in “Orwell: 2+2=5,” and a number of buzzy horror films that serve as their more “commercial” fare. Its previous record for Oscar nominations was eight (which it achieved for the 2020 Oscars), but considering the studio’s packed slate, it seems likely that this will be broken next year. Awards season never goes quite as expected, but if NEON plays its cards right, this should be a very busy year for them.
Currently, the Next Best Picture team’s collective Oscar nomination predictions are forecasting the following for NEON’s awards slate:
Sentimental Value
Best Picture
Best Director
Best Actress
Best Supporting Actress (2x)
Best Supporting Actor
Best Original Screenplay
Best International Feature Film
Best Film Editing
It Was Just An Accident
Best Picture
Best Director
Best Original Screenplay
Best International Feature Film
The Secret Agent
Best Actor
Best International Feature Film
No Other Choice
Best International Feature Film
Arco
Best Animated Feature
What do you think, though? How many Oscar nominations do you think NEON will receive? How many nominees are you predicting they’ll have for both Best Picture and Best International Feature? Please let us know in the comments section below and on our X account and check out the team’s latest Oscar predictions here.
You can follow Amy and hear more of her thoughts on the Oscars & Film on X at @AmyHayneKim
