In the first Best Picture predictions by the Next Best Picture team and most other pundits, something is missing from their collective field of ten – a movie made by a woman. Despite every Best Picture lineup since 2018 having at least one movie from a female director, no movie like that is higher than the bubble this preseason.
At this stage, the highest-ranked movie from a woman, and the only one at or near the top 10 for the moment, is Olivia Wilde’s “The Invite.“ A lot is due to timing: it is just now starting to play for general audiences, has had its review scores rise since its Sundance premiere, has already cracked the box-office top 10, and is about to open wider on July 10th. But even if momentum keeps building enough for “The Invite“ to become a consensus pick by the end of summer, will that hold through the fall – and how much will depend on other movies from female directors later this year?
It is not an automatic rule that only one movie made by a woman can get into Best Picture, especially since multiple women got films in during 2020, 2021, and 2023 alone. In the last couple of years, there has been room for only one, though that has been the bare minimum every year since 2018.
2019: “Little Women“ from Greta Gerwig
2020: “Nomadland“ from Chloe Zhao, “Promising Young Woman“ from Emerald Fennell
2021: “CODA“ from Sian Heder, “The Power of the Dog“ from Jane Campion
2022: “Women Talking“ from Sarah Polley
2023: “Anatomy of a Fall“ from Justine Triet, “Past Lives“ from Celine Song, “Barbie“ from Gerwig
2024: “The Substance“ from Coralie Fargeat
2025: “Hamnet“ from Zhao
In this context, anyone picking a Best Picture lineup in 2026 should reserve at least one spot for a female-made movie, if only one. Nonetheless, when it comes to what most people are eying as Best Picture contenders and possible nominees this preseason, female-made films aren’t highly ranked so far.
For that reason and others, “The Invite“ will be extra tempting to rank higher and higher up the charts in the coming weeks, especially if its wide release builds word of mouth as much as its limited rollout has in the last two weekends. Yet with such a long season ahead, there is plenty of time for another film made by a woman to surge in the fall, whether or not that alone pushes “The Invite“ out in the process.
Given that a record-setting three movies from women made Best Picture in 2023, it’s hard to make a logic-based case that voters will never bring themselves to do something like that again, just because only one female director’s movie made the cut in 2024 and 2025. Nonetheless, until voters actually do prove they are that open-minded again, any surge by a female-made movie might only make things harder for Wilde and “The Invite“ – even if not that many are on the radar right now.
At the moment, there are only a select few movies by women with any perceived paths to awards contention. One is another movie from Sundance, just like “The Invite,“ as Beth de Araujo’s “Josephine“ received even bigger rave reviews and the Sundance Grand Jury Prize, for its even more harrowing story of an eight-year-old girl witnessing a violent act. It is still due to open sometime later this year, and could build up a larger case during the fall festivals first.
Yet unlike “The Invite,” “Josephine“ is far from comedic, has notable adult stars like Channing Tatum and Gemma Chan but is mostly carried by a newcomer in young Mason Reeves, has a director in de Araujo who doesn’t have the name recognition, star power and resume of Wilde – and most crucially, has a brand new distributor in Sumerian Pictures instead of a decorated indie studio like A24. Without those kinds of institutional advantages, “Josephine“ and de Araujo have a way harder uphill battle to get recognized by industry voters, no matter how much critics are moved by them.
When it comes to movies from women, the one with the biggest institutional advantage likely isn’t “Josephine“ or perhaps even “The Invite,“ but “Sense and Sensibility“ from Focus Features. It, too, is helmed by a relatively new female director, Georgia Oakley. Yet, her film is based on one of the most recognizable and oft-adapted stories in literature, has a much bigger budget, has rising stars in the likes of Daisy Edgar-Jones, Esme Creed-Miles, George MacKay, and Frank Dillane, and is pushed by a studio that almost always gets its top priority into Best Picture.
“Sense and Sensibility“ could be in the vein of “Hamnet,“ as a Focus period film from a female director that’s based on literary legend, wasn’t a consensus preseason pick in summer, but stormed in during fall festivals and never looked back, to the point that it left no room for any other film by a woman to join it. Then again, “Hamnet“ was directed by a past Oscar winner, Zhao, was headlined by two past Oscar nominees, featured Jessie Buckley as an eventual winner, and had the backing of producers like Steven Spielberg and Sam Mendes.
“Sense and Sensibility“ not only lacks such star power to this point, but it also might not be Focus’s No. 1 awards priority yet, thanks to “Obsession“ becoming its biggest hit of all time. However, if it does wind up making a mark in the fall, it could make both Focus’s Oscar pecking order and the pecking order for female-made movies too crowded for comfort – and that’s assuming nothing else joins the latter order.
Right now, the NBP team has Michelle Williams as the Best Actress favorite for “A Place in Hell,“ which also stars Edgar-Jones and is directed by “Fair Play“ director Chloe Domont. Yet despite that, “A Place in Hell” isn’t nearly as high up on preseason Best Picture charts, although that could change if Williams really is that undeniable and long overdue contender herself. Then again, Best Actress contenders and winners don’t always have to carry their own movies into Best Picture to contend and win.
A greater problem might be that “A Place in Hell“ is from NEON, which already has several other Oscar season priorities in Cannes films like “Fjord“ and “All of a Sudden.“ But now that NEON has also rescued “Artificial“ from purgatory after Amazon got rid of it, there is massive speculation that it could take “A Place in Hell’s” place as a late holiday release – and bump Domont, Williams, Edgar-Jones, and their movie out of 2026 altogether.
Should that happen, among other things, it will result in one less woman left in the running. But even if “A Place in Hell” stays in, it would have to contend as a movie from a female director who has never been in the awards conversation, just like “Josephine“ and “Sense and Sensibility.“ Technically, “The Invite“ is in the same boat, too, aside from any push some pundits might have given to Wilde’s “Booksmart“ in 2019.
Truthfully, the only 2026 movie from a female director who has been in this race before is one from the maker of 2021’s Best Picture. Five years after Sian Heder helped “CODA“ rally for Best Picture over fellow female director and eventual Best Director winner Jane Campion, her follow-up film, “Being Heumann,“ is slated to open this year’s Toronto International Film Festival.
As a true-life story about a real disabled activist, played by a real disabled actress in Ruth Madeley, with past nominee Mark Ruffalo in support, and with Apple almost certain to make this its No. 1 awards season priority, “Being Heumann” might have a far clearer path than the likes of “The Invite,” “Sense and Sensibility,” “Josephine,“ and “A Place in Hell“ if it makes an impact at fall festivals. Though maybe if history repeats itself for Heder in that way, it could also repeat 2021 by having at least a second female-made movie and nominee join her again, too.
At this current time, “The Invite“ has set the bar of awards buzz for movies made by women this year, with “Josephine“ as the biggest question mark, both “Sense and Sensibility“ and “A Place in Hell“ looming with many possible advantages if they actually hit, and “Being Heumann“ perhaps waiting to surge in like “CODA“ quietly did. Yet for now, there is no early consensus around any of them being major contenders in the way that “Anatomy of a Fall,” “Barbie,” “Past Lives,” “The Power of the Dog,” “Women Talking,” “Nomadland,” “Little Women,“ and eventually “CODA,” “Promising Young Woman,” “Hamnet,“ and “The Substance“ were.
But unless some other movie from some other woman surges that we don’t have eyes on yet, then it seems “The Invite,” “Sense and Sensibility,” “A Place in Hell,” “Being Heumann,“ and “Josephine“ are all there will be to choose from as the next breakout awards film from a woman in 2026. And if very recent history from 2024 and 2025 repeats, there will only be room for one of these movies and these women – assuming there’s even that much room.
The last year without a Best Picture nominee from a woman was 2018, when Marielle Heller’s “Can You Ever Forgive Me?“ got two acting nominations and a Best Adapted Screenplay nomination, but missed Best Picture in a year where “Vice,” “Bohemian Rhapsody,“ and eventual winner “Green Book“ were let in anyway. It took an unusual and rather low-rated year for that to happen, and 2026 could well be an unusual year as well – one where no movies made by women or headlined by Black actors or actresses are predicted as Best Picture nominees right now, in the year after “Sinners“ and “One Battle After Another“ dominated the entire season at that.
If this is shaping up to be a year that takes a step backward overall in diversity, perhaps a Best Picture lineup without any films from women will be a drop in the bucket. Even if “The Invite“ does cement its place as a possible or likely nominee this summer, but results in enough voters deciding they don’t need to branch out and push in any more films by women for the rest of this long season – like they consciously or unconsciously decided after “The Substance“ and “Hamnet“ sealed their place in – it might not be a complete or even half-victory in the big picture.
“The Invite“ has its own problems with other pecking orders, since, for all its buzz and recent increased word of mouth, it has still only risen to become A24’s second-biggest projected contender, behind the upcoming “The Debut.“ If that movie lives up to its high expectations for potential win-competitive favorites Julianne Moore, Paul Giamatti, and writer/director Jesse Eisenberg, will A24 push that hard to get “The Invite“ in as a second bonus Best Picture nominee – or figure a Best Adapted Screenplay nomination and maybe at least one acting nomination is enough to shoot for?
That scenario may be one example of how a woman-made contender is given lower priority and consideration this year, and it might wind up far from the only one. To change that potential future, there could need to be at least a few surprises and breakouts that most of us don’t see coming, or see panning out right now.
If that doesn’t happen, maybe “The Invite“ will wind up enough on its own to make Wilde the leading lady among female directors this Oscar season, like Zhao, Fargeat, Triet, Polley, Campion, Heder, Fennell, and Gerwig before her in this era. Yet if no one else like Oakley, Domont, Heder, or de Araujo challenges her after all, it would put a lot more weight on Wilde if she and “The Invite“ falter down the line too – and have much direr implications if they do.
Have you seen “The Invite” yet? Do you feel it has any Oscar potential for Best Picture or Best Director? Are you currently predicting any female filmmakers to be nominated for Best Picture/Best Director this year? Please let us know in the comments section below and on Next Best Picture’s X account and check out Next Best Picture’s latest Oscar predictions here.
You can follow Robert and hear more of his thoughts on the Oscars & Film on X @Robertdoc1984
