While general audiences go back to see “Deadpool & Wolverine” and “Twisters” again at the cinemas, or possibly fall for M. Night Shyamalan’s latest “Trap,” the Oscar race will be far more impacted by how “Sing Sing” does expanding out of New York and Los Angeles starting August 2nd. Whether it builds upon its first three weeks in NY/LA or struggles across the rest of the country, it will be the next big step in determining what path “Sing Sing” will ride this awards season.
Will it go the way of “CODA” – 2021’s very early-season festival favorite that opened wide in late summer, hung around for several months, and then surged to win it all at the end? Or will it go the way of “Past Lives“—last year’s early-season festival favorite from A24 that opened wide in summer, was also loudly hailed among the best films of the year but made far less noise with the Academy?
THE CASE FOR “SING SING” = “CODA”
In 2021, “CODA” got a head start on the rest of the field by sweeping the Sundance Film Festival. And technically, in 2024, “Sing Sing” got a big head start on this year’s field by first screening way back in 2023 in Toronto. Nonetheless, months after their first big festival raves, both of them revealed themselves to wider audiences in mid-late summer – although “CODA” went directly to Apple+ in August 2021 while “Sing Sing” is at least playing in theaters for A24 this August.
Regardless, “CODA” and Apple took a big chance in premiering for general audiences before the fall festival season, just like “Sing Sing” is doing. For “CODA,” the gamble started paying off when there weren’t enough fall festival breakouts and late winter releases to push it from the Best Picture field, though it wasn’t considered win-competitive yet. For “Sing Sing,” time will soon tell if there are enough hits from Venice, Telluride, Toronto, New York, and London festivals – not to mention big studio films like “Gladiator II” and “Wicked” – to push it closer to the bubble than lock status.
When nomination morning came, “CODA” seemed to stall with only three nominations for Best Picture, Best Supporting Actor, and Best Adapted Screenplay. Yet, thanks to “The Power of the Dog” losing its early lead in the latter two categories and “CODA” catching fire at voting time despite having already been out for over half a year, Troy Kotsur and Sian Heder’s script rode the waves to Supporting Actor, and Adapted wins—making Best Picture a foregone conclusion by then.
For “Sing Sing,” the very worst it looks like it can do is just three nominations of its own for Best Picture, Best Actor in Colman Domingo, and Best Adapted Screenplay. Even assuming that director Greg Kwedar and supporting standout Clarence Maclin get snubbed in this scenario, Domingo looks far more locked in, if only because he was already nominated for “Rustin” last year. With that foot in the door, he may have an extra advantage even Kotsur didn’t have – and if he can hold off the likes of Ralph Fiennes, Joaquin Phoenix, Daniel Craig, and Timothee Chalamet, a Domingo Oscar would be a key first part of “Sing Sing’s” Best Picture resume, like Kotsur’s was for “CODA.”
Of course, that would mean nothing on its own without a Screenplay win, just like Kotsur’s wouldn’t have. It might well be that more flashy and presumably “important“ contenders like “Conclave,” “Nickel Boys,” “The Piano Lesson,“ and others look like better bets later this season. But if “The Power of the Dog“ could be caught by the tail by “CODA“ – and if last year’s Best Adapted Screenplay winner “American Fiction“ could beat the likes of “Oppenheimer,” “Poor Things,“ and “Barbie” without breaking a sweat – “Sing Sing“ and its writing team may have as good a shot as any.
In 2021, a musically based film focusing on an undervalued and easily dismissed community played the long game, had more staying power than early favorites, and became an even bigger sentimental favorite by Oscar night. Three years later, everything is in place – if only on paper thus far – for “Sing Sing“ to perform a “CODA“ like encore.
THE CASE FOR “SING SING“ FALLING SHORT OF “CODA”
“CODA“ started its award season run very early, but not as early as “Sing Sing“ did. What’s more, “CODA“ had significant wins at Sundance on its resume before it went to Apple+, whereas “Sing Sing“ was shut out at Toronto last year.
In sheer honesty, “CODA” didn’t achieve its comeback Oscar wins alone. It needed help from an awards season that yielded, for all intents and purposes, one of the weaker Best Picture fields in recent years. Between the lingering effects of the pandemic and the past year’s Oscar telecast embarrassments, and to say nothing of ABC and the Academy not awarding every category live in this telecast, it was not exactly a typical or ideal season leading to the big night.
Not only was attention divided elsewhere, but “The Power of the Dog“ proved a somewhat softer major favorite than first thought, at least outside of Jane Campion’s Best Director sweep. “CODA“ swept in as a more conventional, less critically acclaimed alternative without as much backlash from Film Twitter critics and pundits as there might have been in a regular year – or as much as there was when “Green Book“ did the same to “Roma“ three years earlier. And as it turned out, barely anyone remembered that year’s Oscar night for what “CODA“ did in the slightest.
“Sing Sing“ is at least far more acclaimed and Film Twitter adored than “CODA“ ever was, if only so far. However, with “Dune: Part Two,” “Anora,” “Emilia Perez,” and maybe a few others as the only contenders anyone’s seen so far, a disappointing fall festival season can make the 2024 Oscar field just as weak – and as wide open – as 2021 became. But if fall preseason favorites like “Blitz,” “Conclave,” “Queer,” “Nickel Boys,” “The Room Next Door,” “Joker: Folie a Deux,” and any other surprises start making the field far more formidable, “Sing Sing“ could get lost in the crowd by winter much easier than “CODA“ did.
Should that happen, and should Hollywood and the world at large remain relatively stable enough to host a normal Oscar night in March 2025, “Sing Sing“ may need to sing some different tunes to reach a “CODA“ like crescendo.
THE CASE FOR “SING SING“ = “PAST LIVES”
If “Sing Sing” doesn’t build momentum like “CODA“ did, then it could lose momentum the way “Past Lives“ did a year ago. Back then, “Past Lives“ was a Sundance breakout – but not a Sundance-winning one like “CODA“ was – that was picked up by A24, released to theaters that summer in the middle of blockbuster season, and rode a wave of critical raves and Film Twitter love to look like a particular Best Picture nominee. Moreover, its fans dreamed of additional nominations for director Celine Song and lead actress Greta Lee and a potential win for Song’s original screenplay.
For much of the season of critic awards, it looked like those dreams were right within reach. Yet by the time Academy voters weighed in and the fields filled up, “Past Lives“ went from critical darling to falling into the industry’s bubble. Not only did Lee fall out of contention and Song fall out of Best Director consideration, “Past Lives“ went from mortal lock to a film that received the bare minimum of Best Picture and Best Original Screenplay nomination on nomination morning – and might have been lucky just to keep that much.
Right now, Film Twitter pundits and fans are dreaming even bigger for “Sing Sing,“ to the point where they imagine nomination and wins in Best Picture, Best Actor, Best Adapted Screenplay, and even Best Supporting Actor. Yet, while it may perform well in those categories during critic awards season, industry voters are a far different breed.
Over months, the hype for “Past Lives“ slowly died down as more and more films caught up and pushed it onto the bubble. Even A24 wound up making “Past Lives“ a secondary priority by the end, once “The Zone of Interest“ surged to become its top awards season film. Depending on the rest of A24’s lineup and other unseen contenders, it isn’t out of the picture to think “Sing Sing“ might meet the same fate.
That might not seem likely right now in early August – but it didn’t seem like “Past Lives“ would underachieve the way it did last August either.
THE CASE FOR “SING SING“ OUTDOING “PAST LIVES”
“Past Lives“ only salvaged enough to get two nominations. Yet, as mentioned above, the worst-case scenario for “Sing Sing“ is likely three.
“Past Lives“ had a lead in Lee, who broke out after years of supporting work, just like Domingo is currently doing. But in 2023, Lee didn’t have a past nomination under her belt to help her withstand more experienced contenders, whereas Domingo now has that to help him this year. For that matter, Lee was never considered a serious threat to win Actress at any point last season, while Domingo is the near-unanimous early Best Actor pick – at least until the fall festivals start.
“Past Lives“ also never really got Teo Yoo or John Magaro off the ground to be a potential second-acting nominee. With “Sing Sing,“ Maclin is not only a near-unanimous pick as a Supporting Actor nominee, but he could be a popular dark horse pick to win if the likes of Samuel L. Jackson, Denzel Washington, and Stanley Tucci falter. At the minimum, getting Domingo and Maclin in as nominees would give “Sing Sing“ a perfect safety net – and allow it to dream bigger than “Past Lives“ ever could if one or both of them remain win competitive.
The only Oscar “Past Lives“ was considered a serious threat to win, if merely at one point, was Best Original Screenplay. “Sing Sing“ could face the same trajectory in Best Adapted Screenplay as an early favorite caught by a bigger late-comer. But if “Conclave,” “Nickel Boys,” “The Piano Lesson,” “Joker: Folie a Deux,” “Nightbitch,” and other unseen Adapted contenders look shakier after the fall festivals, the story might wind up different this time.
If only because of Domingo, and if only because far more people are picking “Sing Sing“ to win Best Picture this summer than they ever picked “Past Lives“ last summer, it looks like there’s much more room for this A24 festival hit turned summer release to be more than an early year critical/Film Twitter darling after all. Yet that doesn’t automatically mean it has to be the next “CODA“ instead, or it will be.
What kind of Oscar player do you believe “Sing Sing” will be? Have you seen it yet? If so, what did you think of it? Please let us know in the comments below or on Next Best Picture’s X account and be sure to check out Next Best Picture’s latest Oscar predictions here.
You can follow Robert and hear more of his thoughts on the Oscars & Film on X at @Robertdoc1984
