Although “Conclave” was officially the Best Picture winner at the BAFTAs, it was essentially just one of three big winners. Not only did “Conclave” finally win something other than Best Adapted Screenplay by also taking Best Film Editing, “Anora” got the one big BAFTA win it needed by making Mikey Madison the Best Actress frontrunner again, while “The Brutalist” got the comeback day it needed by winning Best Director, Best Actor, Best Score and Best Cinematography.
As such, with those wins and with BAFTA voters failing to save “Emilia Pérez,” it appears Best Picture is at long last down to only “Anora,” “The Brutalist,” and “Conclave.” Therefore, with less than two weeks left to go before Oscar night, this is what each film needs to happen before the final envelope is read on March 2nd.
“Anora” – SAG Ensemble win and/or winning two out of three Oscars in Best Director, Best Actress, and Best Original Screenplay
Thanks to its PGA and DGA sweep, “Anora” was either going to remain the favorite or co-favorite after the BAFTAs no matter what. However, if it had lost every single BAFTA category, which was also an Oscar category, its prospects would have looked very shaky again. In that context, winning BAFTA Best Casting did very little to soothe “Anora’s” nerves after it also lost Best Original Screenplay, Best Film Editing, and Best Director. Yet with one upset win by Madison, “Anora” suddenly went from a film that didn’t need its title character to win as well to a movie that may now need her more than ever.
Losing Best Original Screenplay at the BAFTAs to “A Real Pain” wasn’t so bad for “Anora,” if only because it didn’t lose to “The Substance.” Because “The Substance” now only has a Critics Choice win to make a case for itself, and because “A Real Pain” seems very unlikely to be the second Best Original Screenplay Oscar winner without a Best Picture nomination in this century, “Anora” remains the safe Best Original Screenplay leader by default.
However, now that Brady Corbet is at least dead, even with Sean Baker for Best Director again, and now that “Conclave” has finally given the Best Film Editing category a frontrunner, it’s fair to ask if “Anora” can really win Best Picture and Original Screenplay Oscar only like “Spotlight” did, if it has to. In that regard, if Corbet salvages Best Director, it may all depend on Madison holding off Demi Moore and Fernanda Torres for that one clinching “Anora” win – or else “Anora” may not get any more wins at all.
Nonetheless, “Spotlight” didn’t need to win PGA or DGA before it made its history, and “Anora” still has both. “Spotlight” did win the SAG Ensemble, though, so if “Anora” takes that and sweeps PGA/DGA/WGA/SAG all in one year, then there’s literally nothing that can be done to knock it off anymore. But if it loses SAG after losing BAFTA Best Film, the door is still open – and then if it has Best Original Screenplay only before Best Director and Best Actress are announced, then “Anora” really cannot afford to lose both of them.
There might still be a world where “Anora” only wins Best Picture and Best Original Screenplay – yet it would require both “The Brutalist” and “Conclave” to fall off their required paths first.
“The Brutalist” – “Wicked” SAG Ensemble win + repeat of BAFTA Best Director/Best Actor/Best Score/Best Cinematography win package + “Anora” losing Best Actress
“The Brutalist” had become a popular choice to either win one Oscar or none at all after its trio of CCA/PGA/DGA losses. But the BAFTAs single-handedly revived it by giving it the exact win package it needs to repeat at the Oscars.
Not only did Corbet stay alive while Adrien Brody moved closer to a complete sweep, it got the two technical wins it needed in Best Score and Best Cinematography. If “The Brutalist” wins these exact four categories at the Oscars and goes into Best Picture with multiple wins both above and below the line, then historically, it would look pretty hard to beat – as only “La La Land,” “All the President’s Men” and “Cabaret” have won multiple above and below-the-line Oscars without winning Best Picture since 1972.
“The Revenant” won Best Director, Best Actor, and Best Cinematography in 2015, but without that one extra Oscar, it was much easier for “Spotlight” to overtake it for Best Picture despite having fewer wins. “Gravity” swept the techs in 2013 and also won Best Director, but without a second above-the-line win, it was vulnerable when “12 Years a Slave” did get two. With all this in mind, “The Brutalist” will be in its best position by far if it has two major and two tech Oscars – but it will still need some help.
Without a SAG Ensemble nomination, “The Brutalist” can’t do anything on its own to block “Anora” from completing a guild sweep, and it can’t block “Conclave” from furthering its momentum. Therefore, “The Brutalist” will need to cheer extra hard for “Wicked” – if not “Emilia Pérez” – to beat them both and deny them that final all-important pre-Oscar win. After that, “The Brutalist” needs both “Anora” and “Conclave” to get surprised on Oscar night as well.
Even if “The Brutalist” has the four wins it needs, it might not be enough if “Anora” has multiple major Oscars of its own – so not only does Corbet have to beat Baker in Best Director, Madison has to lose Best Actress too. “Anora” still likely has Best Original Screenplay safe and sound, but if that’s the only win it has before Best Picture and if “The Brutalist” has its exact BAFTA win package, then maybe it won’t be “The Revenant” vs “Spotlight” all over again.
Of course, when “The Brutalist” got those four BAFTA wins, it still lost BAFTA Best Film to “Conclave” anyway because “Conclave” took both Best Adapted Screenplay and Best Film Editing too. If “Conclave” repeats those two wins at the Oscars and if “Anora” stumbles, then maybe “Conclave” will be in a position to do exactly what it did to “The Brutalist” at BAFTA. Yet since the Academy has less of a home-field advantage for “Conclave” and also has a preferential ballot, there may be room for a different ending.
Either way, “The Brutalist” needs a Best Director, Best Actor, Best Score, and Best Cinematography repeat at the Oscars to have its very best chance, along with the extra help it didn’t get at the BAFTAs. But if it only wins three of those four categories, then it’s a non-starter – if it isn’t already one by then.
“Conclave” – SAG Ensemble win + Best Adapted Screenplay and Best Film Editing Oscar wins + multiple Oscar upset losses for “Anora” and “The Brutalist”
Despite finally winning something besides Best Adapted Screenplay at an awards ceremony, and despite dreams of a SAG Ensemble win next, “Conclave” still needs a lot more help. Even if it has a BAFTA and SAG Ensemble win combination, then “Conclave” is still only in line to be just like “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri” in 2017 – and “Anora” is still in line to be just like “The Shape of Water.”
To start rewriting that history, “Conclave” needs to do exactly what it did in BAFTA, particularly in Best Film Editing. Thanks to critics, season Best Film Editing champion “Challengers” being snubbed at the Oscars, and thanks to the ACE Eddie awards being held after the Oscars, “Conclave’s” BAFTA win is all anyone has to go on to predict this category. But if it wins that Oscar and completes its Best Adapted Screenplay sweep, then “Conclave” can do what “Argo” and “Crash” did – win Best Picture with just a Screenplay and Editing Oscar only.
However, even with that ideal win package secured, “Conclave” then must hope against hope that both “Anora” and “The Brutalist” don’t get theirs. And thanks to Best Director, it is a very tricky proposition.
Either Corbet or Baker is going to win Best Director, which means “Conclave” needs both “Anora” and “The Brutalist” to lose big elsewhere. If “Anora” wins Best Director, then “Conclave” needs it to have no other wins elsewhere, not even in Best Original Screenplay. But if “The Brutalist” wins Best Director, then “Conclave” either needs Brody to be shocked in Best Actor or needs “The Brutalist” to lose one of the two techs it won at BAFTA. Even then, “Anora” would still have to lose Best Actress or Best Original Screenplay, if not both.
Although many would switch to pick “Conclave” for Best Picture if it won SAG Ensemble, that would merely mean the easy part’s over. To still have a chance before the final envelope is read, “Conclave” must not only have two Oscar wins before then, but it also needs “Anora” to have just one win and “The Brutalist” to have three at the absolute maximum. Only then will Best Picture remain a three-horse race to the very end – or, at minimum, still be a two-horse one.
What do you think will win at SAG and Spirit Awards this weekend? Do you think they will have any impact on the Oscars? Please let us know on on Next Best Picture’s X account and check out Next Best Picture’s latest Oscar predictions here.
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