With the Venice, Telluride, TIFF, and NYFF festivals over, we can finally take full stock of how the Best Picture field and its bubble look now. When it comes to locks or near locks, we are about where we first started, as a minimum of five and maximum of six films – including “Anora,” “The Brutalist,” “Emilia Perez,” “Conclave,” “Dune: Part Two” and “Sing Sing” – are presumed safely in. But when it comes to those final few slots, the bubble looks even shakier than it did six weeks ago.
Among the films that have already screened, about eight or so still have a fair shot to crack the top 10, and just as many drawbacks could take them out. As a result, unseen films like “A Complete Unknown,” “Gladiator II,” “Wicked,” “Here,” “Juror #2“ and “Nosferatu“ still have a wide-open door to break through whenever they’re ready – and perhaps this field may really need a few of them to do so. But until that question marks screen, these are the films that are most clearly on the bubble – however fragile it might be – after the bulk of the festival season.
Currently, this does not include films like “Babygirl,” “Queer,” “Hard Truths,” “Maria,” “The Apprentice,” “I’m Still Here” and “Nightbitch“ that now look like mainly acting and/or screenplay plays, a film like “All We Imagine as Light“ that doesn’t have any country’s backing for Best International Film, an animated darling like “The Wild Robot“ that couldn’t get a People’s Choice breakthrough at TIFF, or early year films like “Challengers” and “Civil War.”
“Blitz”By the time Steve McQueen’s WWII epic premiered at the London and New York Film Festivals, its highest preseason expectations had already started deflating. As such, it may not be a big surprise that few who saw “Blitz“ expect it to actually contend for major wins anymore. However, that doesn’t mean it can’t break into a few major fields anyway.
Despite an initial 79% Rotten Tomatoes score, a 7.1 RT average score, and a 72 on Metacritic, those numbers are about the bare minimum “Blitz“ needed to stay on the bubble. And although many reviewers dinged it for being “middlebrow” and something that would have done better with Academy voters in the 80s and 90s than voters today, perhaps enough older voters will itch to get behind a throwback like “Blitz“ after having far different winners these last two years.
With Apple’s backing, a three-week theatrical release starting on November 1st, and an Apple TV+ debut right before Thanksgiving, “Blitz“ still has time and resources to turn its opening word around. Unless its review scores drop significantly lower in the next few weeks, and unless it’s likely tech nominations aren’t enough of a boost to help McQueen in Best Director or Best Original Screenplay – or Saoirse Ronan in Best Supporting Actress – it may yet have enough to keep itself in Best Picture, if not enough to threaten the frontrunners as well.
“Nickel Boys”For a film with a 90 on Metacritic and an 8.4 average score on Rotten Tomatoes, the arguments over it may have only barely begun. While its first-person POV and RaMell Ross’s other visuals sparked a lot of discussion and praise in many circles, “Nickel Boys“ will still be a massive question mark when it gets to wider audiences and Academy voters.
If there is a red flag about how general audiences may see it, it comes from Michael’s Telluride Film Blog and its annual People’s and Professional Telluride polls. Not only did “Nickel Boys“ score only a 3.26 from the People at Telluride, but its combined score with the Professionals also added up to a mere 7.03 – and the lowest-scored Telluride film in that combined poll to still get a Best Picture nomination is currently “The Favourite“ at 7.66.
Will “Nickel Boys“ be a classic case of critics liking it far more than regular audiences and voters – and if so, will the critics’ passion for it still be enough to push it in? Given how MGM/Amazon pushed it from a late October release in New York and Los Angeles to mid-December, this question could linger all the way up to Oscar nomination morning.
“The Room Next Door”On paper, a Pedro Almodovar film winning the Golden Lion at Venice should make it an automatic Best Picture nominee. But until “The Room Next Door“ was announced as Venice’s big winner, the praise for it had been relatively lukewarm, outside of its 17-minute premiere standing ovation. Even now, its low 7.4 Rotten Tomatoes average score and 70 on Metacritic is far below the recent standards of Almodovar’s “Pain and Glory“ and “Parallel Mothers,“ which both had to scrap and claw just to get their leads nominated.
Since Tilda Swinton was uplifted from the wide open Best Supporting Actress field to the more crowded Best Actress field – joining co-star Julianne Moore and fellow Sony Pictures Classics contender Ronan for “The Outrun“ – that decision might be a blow to “The Room Next Door’s“ Best Picture resume if it doesn’t work. Between that and its position on the Best Adapted Screenplay bubble, this is a film that could either rack up a few significant nominations or be shut out entirely.
Right now, the big reason “The Room Next Door“ seems to be under any consideration – aside from Almodovar, Swinton, and Moore’s names – is that surprise Venice win. But was that only a product of an Almodovar-friendly Venice audience, or will it actually catch on with other crowds?
“A Real Pain“While many Venice, Telluride, TIFF, and NYFF world premieres struggled, this little film that could from Sundance has managed to take advantage. Thanks to its own early season raves, the backing of Searchlight Pictures, and an increasingly fragile bubble, “A Real Pain“ has hung around all year and is poised to keep climbing up the ranks—if it can only get a few more breaks.
Thanks to some faltering Best Supporting Actor preseason picks, Kieran Culkin might be poised for a serious Oscar run several months after his final Emmy for “Succession.“ Thanks to some faltering Best Original Screenplay contenders, Jesse Eisenberg’s script might be close to a top 3 frontrunner alongside “Anora” and “The Brutalist.“ And at the moment, the biggest thing that may be in “A Real Pain’s“ way for serious Best Picture consideration is its fellow Searchlight film “A Complete Unknown,“ assuming this isn’t a vintage Searchlight year where it can get two movies nominated.
If it isn’t, then “A Real Pain“ only needs a good run in general theaters in November, a less prominent run from “A Complete Unknown“ than expected at Christmas, and Searchlight shifting its traditional Oscar season muscle its way right on time.
“September 5”The festival season’s most surprising potential success story came from Venice’s “Extra“ section and then from Telluride, as “September 5“ put itself on the map for its depiction of ABC’s 1972 Munich Olympic tragedy coverage. After that, pundits like Scott Feinberg, who still has this film as his pick to win Best Picture, put it on the map even further.
For all that hype by Feinberg and other gurus, its measly 6.4 average on Rotten Tomatoes from its first review batch – and better but not overwhelming 76 on Metacritic – is a bit of a reality check. Plus, while Paramount has picked “September 5“ up for a post-Thanksgiving release, it is clearly the studio’s backup option behind “Gladiator II“ until that film’s prospects pan out or doesn’t. And unavoidably, it can’t be ignored that when “September 5“ opens in late November – and brings its various hot-button political and journalistic themes with it – viewers’ appetites for a film like this may depend on just how much the world has changed by then.
“The Seed Of The Sacred Fig”Ever since “The Seed of the Sacred Fig“ premiered at Cannes, director Mohammed Rasoulof made headlines for his incendiary story of political and family unrest in Iran and the cost he paid to get himself and his movie out of Iran. Now that Germany has picked it up as its Best International Film selection, there is a clearer path for “The Seed of the Sacred Fig“ to cross over into major categories as well, like many international films before it these last several years.
Still, the film appeared to make more waves at Cannes than at Telluride, TIFF, and NYFF. While past international film history and Rasoulof’s personal history will keep “The Seed of the Sacred Fig“ alive as a popular sleeper pick for Best Picture, Best Director, and Best Original Screenplay consideration, critics and awards groups will have to play their own part in pushing it too.
“The Piano Lesson”Several factors are working against “The Piano Lesson“ as a legitimate Best Picture nomination threat. Between preseason Best Supporting Actor pick Samuel L. Jackson all but dropping out of the field overnight, a mere 7.4 Rotten Tomatoes average and 69 on Metacritic, and Netflix already having “Emilia Perez“ as its top priority this year, this film needs a lot more to go its way than it has gotten thus far. However, all it may really need is one thing to keep going its way.
One element of “The Piano Lesson“ that exceeded expectations at Telluride and TIFF is Danielle Deadwyler, now seemingly poised to correct her controversial “Till“ snub from two years ago. In fact, as long as Deadwyler is considered to be win competitive in Best Supporting Actress, “The Piano Lesson“ still has a shot to ride her coattails into Best Picture with her. Yet that is a big if since fellow Netflix Best Supporting Actress favorite Zoe Saldana could easily pull away from Deadwyler for “Emilia Perez“ – a film with a much higher Oscar ceiling.
Still, since “Emilia Perez“ has the shakiest reviews of the current Best Picture frontrunners, any blowback it gets as the season goes on could make Saldana vulnerable with it. If Deadwyler takes advantage and stays in contention for the long haul this time, maybe “The Piano Lesson“ can just sneak itself into other major races alongside her – though it remains a tall order for now.
“Saturday Night”It might be a very generous take to keep “Saturday Night“ on the Best Picture bubble, especially after it couldn’t even cross $3.5 million in wide release this past weekend—and on the weekend of “Saturday Night Live’s” actual 50th anniversary, no less.
When “Saturday Night“ opened in Telluride and Toronto, it was all too easy to imagine it launching into Best Picture contention with a high People Choice’s finish at TIFF, using its rising star ensemble cast to clean up at the Golden Globes and SAG, threaten some major frontrunners in Best Original Screenplay, Best Editing and Best Score, and become a real Oscar threat right as the real “Saturday Night Live“ keeps celebrating its 50’th season. However, that best-case scenario is now starting to look more like a long shot.
Not placing in the top three at TIFF, let alone getting a People’s Choice win, was strike one for “Saturday Night,“ with its disappointing opening expansion as strike two. Right now, its best, if not last, hope is that it can still be Sony’s top Oscar season priority—but if “Here“ makes a splash at AFI Fest and then with general audiences this November, that will certainly be a final strike three.
In that regard, “Saturday Night“ may not be that different from other bubble films like it, as their fate now depends on the still unseen films of Oscar season being more disappointing and underwhelming than everyone else hopes for. If they get their wish, the chaos that ensues will probably be greater than the actual films fighting for the final Best Picture spots. But if not, the bubble and the Oscar race in general may finally get that much stronger.
So what do you think? Which films received a boost from the fall film festivals and which films fell out of the race or are in the process of falling? What do you think the final ten nominees for Best Picture will be? Please let us know in the comments below or on Next Best Picture’s X account, and be sure to check out Next Best Picture’s latest Oscar predictions here.
You can follow Robert and hear more of his thoughts on the Oscars & Film on X @Robertdoc1984