While it is a director’s goal to be behind a Best Picture nominee, if you direct one Best Picture winner, every subsequent film you helm will forever be put under an extra big microscope. No matter what one directs from there, it’s always assumed the director may be drumming up something new that the Academy will go for. It applies to every director and Academy Award-winner Ron Howard is no stranger to this concept. Once his latest feature, “Eden,” was announced as securing a prime world premiere slot at the Toronto International Film Festival, online chatter went into overdrive regarding the film’s potential award season prospects. Is Howard about to direct another Oscar darling or will this be another “Hillbilly Elegy?”
Before we get too lost in the weeds here, let’s take a step back and actually examine what “Eden” is as a movie and the awards season history of other Howard features. Let’s not let one Best Picture winner from 23 years ago and a prime film festival world premiere spot cloud everyone’s judgment.
“Eden” is a survival thriller penned by Noah Pink, the writer of 2023’s “Tetris.” Extensive plot details have been held close to the chest, but it is apparent that it follows a cluster of people who travel to the Galapagos to live a solitary life divorced from modern society. The emphasis in the official plot descriptions of “Eden” on the brutality of their new home suggests that the film’s lead characters will face arduous physical and mental challenges in this terrain. Academy Award-nominees Ana de Armas, Jude Law, and Vanessa Kirby, along with Daniel Bruhl, Sydney Sweeney, and Richard Roxburgh star, presumably as the folks moving to this island.
Howard’s three most famous Best Picture Oscar nominees (“Apollo 13”, “A Beautiful Mind”, and “Frost/Nixon”) were all period pieces chronicling famous figures and moments in history. From the few details that have been shared, “Eden” appears to be a modern-day feature that is more in line with his 2015 survival thriller “In the Heart of the Sea.” That critically derided box office flop failed to garner any Oscar attention, which doesn’t paint the best historical track record for “Eden’s” Oscar chances. The Academy appears to like Howard in mid-20th century history teacher mode, not channeling “The Revenant.”
One element in “Eden’s” favor when it comes to the Academy at least, is its Oscar-friendly cast. Ana de Armas, Jude Law, and Vanessa Kirby have each secured Oscar nominations in the past, with Armas and Kirby receiving their nominations in just the last five years. Bruhl, meanwhile, came awfully close to a Best Supporting Actor Oscar nomination in his last collaboration with, “Rush.” If he nails it in “Eden,” giving Bruhl a Best Supporting Actor Oscar nomination could function as compensation for his “Rush” miss which many feel he should’ve gotten. Being a prominent actor in the recent Oscar darling “All Quiet on the Western Front” has only further put Bruhl back on the Academy’s radar. While Howard’s Oscar track record doesn’t necessarily guarantee awards season glory for “Eden,” that very much may not be true for the film’s Oscar-friendly cast.
Let’s return to the history of Howard’s movies with the Academy for a moment. Specifically, let’s look at where past Howard Oscar darlings premiered. “A Beautiful Mind” bypassed the fall film festival circuit in favor of a general premiere close to its December 2001 theatrical release. “Frost/Nixon”, meanwhile, opted for a BFI London Film Festival debut in October 2008. In 2013, “Rush” mirrored “A Beautiful Mind” by having a normal world premiere rather than a film festival unveiling. Other major awards darling Howard movies like “Apollo 13” and “Cinderella Man”, meanwhile, had summertime launches that eschewed Cannes premieres.
This historical trend makes it impossible to discern if a TIFF launch is a sign of confidence or not for “Eden.” Choosing this as a premiere destination seems more like a concession to giving an independently financed movie a prominent launchpad. It’s not really because Howard has a deep personal connection to the festival, like Barry Jenkins and Greta Gerwig have with the Telluride Film Festival for example. Nor is it because countless past Howard Best Picture nominees premiered at TIFF.
That “independently financed” element is one of the most important details to consider regarding “Eden’s” potential Oscar future. The film still does not have a domestic distributor and it’s unclear who will step up to distribute it. Amazon MGM Studios (which released Howard’s 2022 feature “Thirteen Lives” straight to streaming) has reportedly bought rights to the film in specific foreign countries. However, no word has emerged on who will release the title in the U.S., a responsibility that would also entail tackling its awards season campaign.
Which studio ultimately tackles “Eden” will speak volumes about its critical buzz after TIFF and, by proxy, its Oscar chances. If Netflix snatches this feature, for instance, “Eden’s” Oscar chances are close to over since it is likely to get lost in the streamer’s extensive 2024 slate of awards season contenders. A smaller theatrical distributor like Vertical Entertainment, meanwhile, may not have the resources to promote the motion picture. A company like Universal (which used to be Howard’s go-to studio home) or NEON, meanwhile, could have the resources and ability to propel the feature from obscurity to notoriety. With uncertainty swirling over how general audiences will see “Eden,” full clarity over its award season prospects is impossible to discern.
Given that the 2024 Toronto International Film Festival runs from September 5th to 15th, “Eden’s” greater place in the 2024-2025 award season landscape will soon come into focus. It’s been 16 years since Howard helmed a Best Picture nominee, but with all the unknown factors swirling around “Eden,” it’s possible this is the project that brings him back to Oscar glory. If nothing else, all eyes will be on “Eden” to see how it lives up to the man’s cinematic legacy. That’s an inevitable byproduct of any motion picture helmed by the director of a Best Picture Oscar winner.
Are you looking forward to “Eden”? Do you believe it could be nominated for any Academy Awards? Please let us know in the comments below or on Next Best Picture’s X account and be sure to check out Next Best Picture’s latest Oscar predictions here.
You can follow Lisa and hear more of her thoughts on the Oscars & Film on her portfolio here
