Before Searchlight Pictures moved up “A Complete Unknown” to a 2024 release, it looked like their awards season would hardly be as big as 2022 and 2023, when they launched “The Banshees Of Inisherin” and “Poor Things” out of Venice. Yet as it stands now, with “A Complete Unknown” skipping the fall festivals and “Nightbitch” as Searchlight’s only fall fest premiere in Toronto, Searchlight’s 2024 Oscar season could really start to look like 2021 – which would bode a lot better for Amy Adams than Timothee Chalamet.
In 2021, Searchlight’s big Oscar player was pegged to be “Nightmare Alley,” which was directed by past Oscar winner Guillermo del Toro, starred long presumed overdue Bradley Cooper, had past nominees like Cate Blanchett and Rooney Mara in support, and waited until December to have its first screenings. Now three years later, “A Complete Unknown” is seemingly Searchlight’s big 2024 player, is helmed by a director of a few past Best Picture nominees in James Mangold, stars the presumably due Chalamet, has past Oscar nominee Edward Norton and past Emmy nominee Elle Fanning in support, and will surely wait until December for its first screenings – if only because that’s when it should actually be finished.
But despite all the waiting and high expectations for “Nightmare Alley,” it somewhat underachieved when it finally opened. It managed a nomination for Best Picture, yet it probably only happened through Searchlight’s sheer force of will and the Academy’s residual love for del Toro. Otherwise, “Nightmare Alley” had no other above-the-line nominations, was the rare Oscar bait film starring Cooper not to get him an acting nomination – his best efforts in the finale aside – and racked up a few other technical nominations but didn’t win any of them either.
For a studio that had past recent Best Picture winners like “Nomadland,” “The Shape of Water” and “Birdman,” and significant contenders like “The Favourite” and “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri” this was a relatively lackluster effort from its biggest film that Oscar season. Yet Searchlight didn’t go empty-handed in 2021, thanks to another movie and actress under the radar most of that year.
While everyone was waiting around for “Nightmare Alley,” Searchlight did premiere a film in the fall festival season that only opened in Toronto. “The Eyes Of Tammy Faye” starred long considered overdue Jessica Chastain, was helmed by actor turned director Michael Showalter, put Chastain under some unrecognizable prosthetics, and opened relatively quietly with mixed reviews despite Chastain’s own Oscar buzz. In fact, its only Oscar nominations were for Chastain in Best Actress and her makeup team in Best Makeup and Hairstyling, though they were not favored to win yet.
Three years later, while everyone is waiting for “A Complete Unknown,” Searchlight is premiering another film in the fall festival season – but again, only at TIFF. “Nightbitch” stars the long-considered overdue Adams and is helmed by actress/director Marielle Heller, will presumably put Adams under unrecognizable prosthetics since her character transforms into a dog, and could quickly turn out like “The Eyes Of Tammy Faye” in having Adams and her makeup team as its best, if not only, Oscar prospects. But as Chastain and “The Eyes Of Tammy Faye” proved, such a combo can still be Searchlight’s Oscar season salvation.
Ultimately, in 2021, Searchlight took its usual place as a major Oscar winner. Though it wasn’t for a heavily anticipated film that was one of the last major contenders to be screened, but for a seemingly much more minor film that was overlooked in Toronto, was nowhere near a Best Picture nominee, yet hung around to finally make its long passed over redheaded lead a Best Actress winner. Now that history is starting to echo a bit in 2024; we must at least consider if those echoes can get louder.
For all the expectations that the Academy will fawn over “A Complete Unknown” and practically engrave Chalamet an Oscar by the New Year for playing and singing as Bob Dylan, what if it is ultimately “Nightmare Alley” 2.0 instead – a film that still slips into the Best Picture 10, but is hardly a threat to win anything, and doesn’t give its lead actor an Oscar just because he’s supposedly due? And in that scenario, what if Searchlight has to fall back on “Nightbitch” to be “The Eyes Of Tammy Faye” 2.0 – a film that is underestimated and dismissed after a Toronto premiere but gets a big push from Searchlight after the nominations, and gives its lead actress an overdue win she probably should have had years earlier? Nonetheless, while such a rerun could become very plausible with just a couple of breaks, there are a few key differences that could cause a few key wrinkles.
While “Nightmare Alley” was a noir-ish movie with freak show undertones, “A Complete Unknown” is a biopic of a famous singer, which is traditionally much more up the Academy’s alley. Then again, as “Elvis” ‘s Oscar night shutout and loss for Austin Butler proved in 2022, maybe just being a musical biopic and just playing a famous singer isn’t enough on its own to win these days. But if “A Complete Unknown” cracks the Best Picture field, there’s almost no world where Chalamet doesn’t at least get a nomination with it, unlike when Cooper was snubbed despite “Nightmare Alley” squeezing in.
As for “Nightbitch,” it is a dark character study about a housewife who finds liberation from becoming a dog, not a traditional biopic about an infamous public figure like “The Eyes Of Tammy Faye” was. That alone might make Adams’ path harder than Chastain’s was three years ago. Yet if Searchlight could make dark, envelope-pushing films like “The Banshees Of Inisherin” and “Poor Things” into major Oscar contenders in the last two years, something like “Nightbitch” should be easy for them to guide on paper.
But unlike those last two films, “Nightbitch” will only be screening in Toronto next month and skip Venice altogether. And unlike “The Eyes Of Tammy Faye,” which opened wide in America mere days after its Toronto premiere and barely made any money in theaters, “Nightbitch” won’t open wide until early December – just like “Poor Things” and “The Banshees Of Inisherin.” Yet now that “A Complete Unknown” is set to open sometime in December, too, Searchlight may only spend a limited time pushing “Nightbitch” onto general audiences, especially if TIFF’s audiences are more mixed on it first.
The sudden emergence of “A Complete Unknown” certainly made it look like “Nightbitch” and Adams won’t be Searchlight’s top priority this season after all. For that matter, thanks to Sundance hit “A Real Pain” and possible Best Supporting Actor contender Kieran Culkin, “Nightbitch” might not even be Searchlight’s second priority if its TIFF premiere doesn’t land.
Then again, maybe all “Nightbitch” needs at Toronto is to keep Adams in the Best Actress conversation, like “The Eyes Of Tammy Faye” did for Chastain. Afterward, once original preseason favorite Kristen Stewart dropped off during industry voting, once the rest of the Actress field became too divided, and once “Parallel Mothers‘” Penelope Cruz surged a bit too late, Chastain leaped ahead and won almost by default. Now, three years later, Adams faces a field with another preseason favorite from a Pablo Larrain biopic in “Maria’s” Angelina Jolie, another potential surger/past winner from a Pedro Almodovar film in “The Room Next Door” ‘s Julianne Moore, and another crop of backup contenders that could eventually cancel each other out.
But for all we know right now, “Nightbitch” could receive “Poor Things” and “The Banshees Of Inisherin” like raves at TIFF and be a much stronger overall contender than “The Eyes Of Tammy Faye” ever was for Chastain – which would make it all the more ironic if that still wasn’t enough for Adams to win too. If the Actress field still winds up much more stable and more challenging to overcome in 2024 than it was for Chastain in 2021, and if “A Complete Unknown” is the major contender its teaser promised, Searchlight may be too busy pushing Chalamet for a Lead win to give Adams the same Chastain like boost.
Yet history seems to repeat itself at the Oscars every three years, with Best Picture winners that aren’t exactly internet darlings, other major winners that are more populist picks than critic picks, and Best Picture fields that aren’t nearly as beloved as the previous two years. If 2024 echoes 2021 in those ways, then it stands to reason Searchlight’s 2024 season could be an echo of its 2021 campaign, too.
In that scenario, “A Complete Unknown” and Chalamet won’t entirely be the sure things we assume them to be at the moment, Adams may not become that formidable until the industry weighs in, and “Nightbitch” may wind up as Searchlight’s biggest 2024 Oscar winner no matter what its critics say. That all might not look likely now, but neither did the ultimate outcomes for “Nightmare Alley” and “The Eyes Of Tammy Faye” in August 2021.
Who knows? Maybe all of this is just talk and Searchlight Pictures will acquire either Pablo Larraín’s “Maria” or Luca Guadagnino’s “Queer” out of Venice (two significant awards season contenders still seeking U.S. distribution) and change the Oscar race even more drastically than they already have with releasing “A Complete Unknown” in December.
What do you think of Searchlight Pictures’ slate this awards season? How do you think their films will perform with the Academy? Please let us know in the comments below or on Next Best Picture’s X account and be sure to check out Next Best Picture’s latest Oscar predictions here.
You can follow Robert and hear more of his thoughts on the Oscars & Film on X at @Robertdoc1984
