If you check in with most people’s mid-year Oscar predictions, you’ll see the Best Animated Feature race often defaulting to “Zootopia 2.” It has for us in our first predictions of the season. It’s an easy choice, after all, the first film won. But that repeat win feels far from certain, and not just because nobody has seen the sequel yet.
As voters have shown time and again, they tend to shy away from sequels in this category. That’s why well-reviewed follow-ups like “Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse,” “Shrek 2,” and “How to Train Your Dragon 2” came up short. The only reliable exception is Pixar (which “Zootopia 2” is not), and even then, sequels like “Inside Out 2” and “Incredibles 2” still went home empty-handed on Oscar night.
On top of that, Disney has been unpredictable in recent years. The lukewarmly reviewed “Wish,” “Strange World,” and “Moana 2” didn’t even come close to nominations, let alone wins. If “Zootopia 2” disappoints, the field instantly opens up. This year, there’s no obvious backup among the usual big players like Disney or DreamWorks.
Even if “Zootopia 2” is a smash hit, there’s still good reason to doubt it will win Best Animated Feature this year. Back-to-back surprise wins for “Flow” and “The Boy and the Heron” show that voters have grown more open to films from outside the usual animation giants. The days when Disney or DreamWorks could block a GKIDS contender by sheer brand power are gone.
With no sure thing from Disney or DreamWorks, and with voters more willing to embrace smaller, indie fare, it’s smart to look further down the prediction lists. If “Zootopia 2” falters, another “Flow” or “The Boy and the Heron” could easily swoop in.
Here are some potential Best Animated Feature contenders that could steal the win from Disney this year, which the Next Best Picture team currently has ranked in their consensus ten predictions:
“Arco”
NEON hasn’t released many animated films, but the few they have, like “Flee” and “Robot Dreams,” ended up Oscar-nominated. Their latest, the 2D-animated “Arco,” has Natalie Portman on board as a producer and drew strong reviews at Cannes. It recently won the top prize at the Annecy Animation Festival, a feat previously achieved by Oscar nominees like “Memoir of a Snail,” “Flee,” and “I Lost My Body.”
“The Bad Guys 2”
The first “Bad Guys” may not have been in contention for Best Animated Feature as much as some other films were in 2022 but the film did surprisingly find its audience and did well-enough critically that anticipation is now there for the sequel, which will release in theaters from Universal Pictures on August 1st. If it is seen as superior to the previous film, then this will be another contender to keep an eye on over the coming weeks.
“Elio”
Pixar’s newest might struggle to shake headlines about its weak box office, but strong reviews, and that ever-powerful Pixar factor, could keep it in the conversation throughout the season. Those who watch “Elio” seem to be pretty big fans of it and Pixar is usually pretty reliable to receive a nomination each year they release a film, especially an original such as this.
“In Your Dreams”
Netflix has quietly become a mainstay in this category, earning nine Best Animated Feature nominations since 2019 without missing a year. “In Your Dreams” tells the story of a child navigating his parents’ troubled marriage through a fantasy lens. While it comes from filmmakers without an Oscar track record, it’s still worth watching as Netflix has been steadily building a campaign for it.
“Kpop Demon Hunters”
An unexpected hit for Netflix which came out of nowhere recently to positive reviews for its voice acting, soundtrack, animation, visuals and humor, “KPop Demon Hunters” may have just quietly announced itself as a contender in this year’s Best Animated Feature race. From the same studio behind the animation for “Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse” and “The Mitchells vs. The Machines,” it’s proven to be a global hit with a fresh story, style and themes that have resonated with those who have seen it.
“Little Amélie Or The Character Of Rain”
Never count out GKIDS. They’ve been a steady pipeline for Best Animated Feature nominees since 2009’s surprise nod for “The Secret of Kells,” and they recently scored a win with “The Boy and the Heron.” This Cannes debut comes from the team behind “I Lost My Body,” another past nominee and received quite strong reviews after its premiere.
“A Magnificent Life”
Sylvain Chomet always makes the wait worthwhile. After his first Oscar nomination for 2003’s “The Triplets of Belleville,” he returned with 2010’s “The Illusionist,” which earned another nomination over bigger titles like “Despicable Me.” His new film, a biography of writer Marcel Pagnol, has earned decent Cannes reviews and looks just as lush and moving as his earlier work. “A Magnificent Life” may not have wowed critics as Chomet’s previous films did, but with Sony Pictures Classics behind it and given Chomet’s track record, we shouldn’t dismiss this entirely.
“Ne Zha 2”
Academy voters have been slow to embrace Chinese animation, but a $2-billion-plus box office haul could be too big to ignore. “Ne Zha 2” features stunning animation and with a 144-minute runtime, it undoubtedly feels epic in every sense of the word. It may be enough to sway voters, but it will need a strong push from the critics in order to make a dent.
“Scarlet”
Director Mamoru Hosoda, a past nominee for 2018’s “Mirai,” may benefit from goodwill after missing out with 2021’s “Belle.” His latest, described as an epic about “a brave princess who transcends time and space,” is backed by Sony, which means a studio with deep pockets for an Oscar push. The December release pattern is exactly what the studio did for “Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse,” and we all know how that turned out in 2018. If anything, the late release should keep it fresh in voters’ minds.
Who do you think will win Best Animated Feature this year at the Oscars? Will it be “Zootopia 2“? Something on this list? Or a surprise we didn’t mention? Please let us know your thoughts in the comments section below or on our X account, and check out our first round of Oscar predictions here.
