As the New Year and the next major stage of Oscar season approaches, the 2025 race already looks like something we haven’t seen in a long time. There have been several years when only one film has swept the early critic awards and precursors, and one could argue that “One Battle After Another” is already doing so this year, too. But thanks to “Sinners,” these two films are doing what no two films have done since 2016, which was a two-film race that this year’s will either completely match or end the exact opposite way.
As of Christmas Day, “One Battle After Another” and “Sinners” have combined to win every single critics group and early precursor that they have been up for this entire season. This is the kind of two-film sweep that hasn’t been seen since 2016, when “La La Land” and “Moonlight” split pretty much every Best Picture prize all season, and were even both named Best Picture at one point on Oscar night.
According to NBP’s stats, “Moonlight” and “La La Land” won all but nine Best Picture awards the whole year that weren’t from film festivals or from being named in the AFI’s top 10, with “Manchester by the Sea” in a very distant third despite only winning Best Picture from NBR, Kansas City, and Vancouver. In fact, “Hell or High Water” and “Hidden Figures” were the only other 2016 films to win more than one critics group or non-festival group award during the entire season.
That is still better than what we have nine years later, where nothing besides “One Battle After Another” or “Sinners” has a single prize that isn’t from a film festival, an independent film group, or AFI. Nonetheless, the precursor season is barely halfway over, and the law of averages would assume a few other films are bound to win something at some point. But even if they do, everything points to “One Battle After Another” and “Sinners” combining to keep winning most everything else, in a way, even “Moonlight” and “La La Land” didn’t pull off.
Overall, NBP counted both “Moonlight” and “La La Land” as having won 23 Best Picture awards each in 2016, with “Moonlight’s” Oscar-night upset breaking the tie. Of course, since there are many more regional critics groups and precursors in 2025 than in 2016, the raw numbers aren’t as comparable, since “One Battle After Another” already had 21 Best Picture group wins before Christmas. But thanks pretty much in sole part to “Sinners” having 9 group wins, it still isn’t sweeping to the extent “Oppenheimer,” “Everything Everywhere All at Once,” “The Power of the Dog,” “Nomadland,” “Parasite,” and “Roma” did in years past.
If “Sinners” keeps fighting to that extent, it and “One Battle After Another” will indeed become the equivalent of “Moonlight” vs “La La Land” this season. And if the 2025 season is going to be the next 2016, then maybe that points to some major twists ahead – especially since similarities are already forming between this year’s duo and the one from 2016.
“Moonlight” and “La La Land” weren’t from the same major studio as “Sinners” and “One Battle After Another,” yet they’re taking some familiar paths. Like “One Battle After Another” did this fall, “La La Land” looked so unbeatable in fall 2016 when it first took critics, audiences, and early precursors by storm; its Best Picture win seemed to be engraved months in advance. And like “Sinners” did this year, “Moonlight” still fought to be by the frontrunner’s side despite being the kind of film Oscar voters don’t generally go for – in “Sinners” case, an African-American led and made film with vampires, blues music and blockbuster box office, instead of an African-American led and made film with an LGBTQ+ coming-of-age/love story backed by a then-novice studio in A24.
Even while almost everyone figured “La La Land” had everything locked in 2016, all the way up to Oscar night, “Moonlight” still hung around as what everyone assumed would be the runner-up. As much of a historic story as it was for “Moonlight” to get so close to Best Picture and contend across the board the way it did, few thought such a contender could actually be validated by the Academy for the win, especially with far more typical Oscar bait like “La La Land” in the way. And as groundbreaking as “Moonlight’s” narrative, wins and support were, “La La Land” still had a winning narrative sewn up so far in advance that there seemed to be no way enough traditional Academy voters would actually defy it.
Now, even while most of us have figured “One Battle After Another” has everything in the bag in 2025, “Sinners” is still hanging around as what everyone assumes to be the runner-up. As much of a historic story as it has been for “Sinners” to get so close to Best Picture and contend across-the-board the way it appears to be, few think right now that such a contender can actually be validated by the Academy for the win, especially with far more typical by comparison Oscar bait like “One Battle After Another” in the way. And as groundbreaking as “Sinners‘” early narrative, wins, and support are, “One Battle After Another” still has a winning narrative sewn up so far in advance that few believe enough traditional Academy voters would actually defy it.
Things were different in 2016, in multiple ways. As easy as it would have been for “La La Land” to keep coasting, “Moonlight” kept building itself up to match it for precursor wins anyway, despite “La La Land” winning most of the guilds. And as different as “Moonlight” was in who made it, who starred it, who distributed it and especially who and what it was about, it came across at a time – specifically the aftermath of the 2016 election – when a greater number of people in Hollywood wanted to make a defining, defying statement about what the industry could and would validate and award in such troubled times.
But ever since then, voters have failed to make that kind of statement again, at least for films precisely like “Moonlight.” While the likes of “Parasite “and “Everything Everywhere All at Once” have broken barriers in other ways with their Oscar wins, no film made by or starring African-Americans has won big with the Oscars since “Moonlight.” Although “Get Out” and “American Fiction” won screenplay Oscars and films like “Nickel Boys” have been nominated for Best Picture, no Black led/made movie has seriously been considered to actually win Best Picture in the nine years since “Moonlight” – all while something far more old fashioned when it comes to racial/LGBTQ+ themes like “Green Book” won just two years after “Moonlight.”
Yet the way things are going, “Sinners” could really become the first Black-led/made film to be a serious threat to win it all since that 2016 season. Or at least it would be if “One Battle After Another” wasn’t in the way, in the same way that “La La Land” seemed to be in “Moonlight’s” way until it wasn’t. But in 2025/early 2026, is it going to be much easier or harder for “Sinners” to keep this a two-film race until making a shocking comeback at the end?
As easy as it looked to be for “One Battle After Another” to sweep everything, “Sinners” still keeps winning everything that it isn’t, albeit not at the kind of even pace “Moonlight” had with “La La Land” yet. But as different as “Sinners” is in who made it, who starred it and especially who and what it is about, it became a box office phenomenon and Oscar contender at a time – specifically the aftermath of the 2024 election and the repression that has followed – when Hollywood voters can make another defining, defying statement about what the industry can validate and award in such troubled times.
Yet while there was the willpower and the fight to make such a statement nine years ago, do today’s voters have any desire to stick their necks out like that these days, for a Black-led/made film, or for anything so different than what they’ve ever voted for before? They can say that “One Battle After Another” would make the same kind of defiant statement against today’s political turmoil and tyrannies, which is something “La La Land” couldn’t say in 2016.
However, if one takes the time to directly compare “One Battle After Another” to “Sinners” – in their focuses, use of and characterizations of African-American characters and women, approaches to tackling white supremacy, and how much their respective auteurs are or aren’t used to handling such material – “One Battle After Another” may well be more safer, traditional and comforting for certain voters to get behind than a film like “Sinners.” This seemed to be the same advantage “La La Land” had over “Moonlight“: the safer “comfort food” kind of movie Academy voters were presumed to favor over something riskier and more boundary-breaking like “Moonlight.”
Just enough voters were willing to go the other way in 2016, anyway. But whether that same hunger exists in 2025, and whether enough voters want to go that extra mile for such a winner instead of taking the path of least resistance, is a bigger issue altogether. And after nine years of voters failing on the promise of “Moonlight,” at least when it comes to pushing Black-led/made films for greater honors than nominations and collective wins, is there a real desire to give out more for something like “Sinners” than to nominate it and maybe only give it one major collective win?
If such a desire does come from nowhere near the end, after months of “Sinners” only seeming like the runner-up to a more pre-ordained/unanimously picked/white voter friendly movie, then the 2025 season will be the next 2016 after all – right down to two films splitting all the early awards and the least likely/traditional one shocking the world in the end after all. But if “One Battle After Another” does keep winning and being favored during industry and guild season, only to be named Best Picture and not have it turn out to be an error, 2025 will end up as 2016’s twin in reverse – with two films winning everything, yet with the most traditional one winning by a safe margin anyway.
Unlike “Moonlight,” “Sinners” was a massive box office hit from a major studio, while unlike “La La Land,” “One Battle After Another” lost money due to having such a steep budget – but for one fair or unfair reason or another, that isn’t appearing to give “Sinners” any advantage at all so far. Unlike in 2016, the Academy voting body in 2025 technically has greater diversity. Yet it primarily comes from a greater number of international voters who have never fully backed a film like “Sinners” before, and who have a large number of foreign contenders they can back against “One Battle After Another” instead.
While “Moonlight” only needed an acting and Screenplay win to catch up to “La La Land,” “Sinners” might well win Best Original Screenplay but is a longer shot to have any of its actors win, no matter what hopes there are for Michael B. Jordan, Wunmi Mosaku or Delroy Lindo – though maybe winning the inaugural Best Casting Oscar could make the necessary impact. Plus, while “La La Land” only had one win, competitive actor, and never seriously threatened to win Screenplay, “One Battle After Another” is completely sweeping all its Screenplay precursors so far, and has three, if not four, actors with serious chances to win too.
In those ways, at least, “Sinners” and “One Battle After Another” aren’t the same as “Moonlight” and “La La Land” to this point. Though will their differences grow further as the season goes on – or will these two frontrunners keep pulling ahead, yet getting closer together, in the kind of ways we last saw nine years ago?
What do you think is going to win Best Picture at this year’s Academy Awards? Do you see it as a two-horse-race between “Sinners” and “One Battle After Another” the same as “Moonlight” and “La La Land” was? Will it have a similar or different outcome? Please let us know in the comments section below and on Next Best Picture’s X account, click here here for the most recent tally of awards season winners, here for Next Best Picture’s precursor tracker, and here for their current Oscar predictions.
You can follow Robert and hear more of his thoughts on the Oscars & Film on X @Robertdoc1984
