With back-to-back victories at the BAFTA and the SAGs, “Conclave” is now the popular pick to upset “Anora” for a third straight victorious Sunday – the Lord’s Day – on Oscar night. However, if “Conclave” were to win Best Picture after the season it has had, it would actually be one of the most improbable wins of this entire era, if not the most improbable. It wouldn’t be because “Anora” has been so dominant, but because “Conclave” has won so little up until now – and, in fact, has won less than any expanded ballot Best Picture winner ever has up to this point.
As of Oscar night, “Conclave” has a total of four Best Picture or Best Picture equivalent prizes this whole season, for SAG Ensemble, BAFTA Best Film, and Best Picture critics prizes from North Carolina and Oklahoma. It’s not as if it was being shut out for wins everywhere, as it dominated the Best Adapted Screenplay field and usually won with groups that had Best Ensemble prizes as well. Nonetheless, those were the only categories it was consistently winning in all year, which provided a major hole in its Best Picture resume.
Without leading any Oscar category besides Best Adapted Screenplay, with Ralph Fiennes and Isabella Rossellini eventually fading back for individual acting wins, and with no wins for Best Film Editing until BAFTA, “Conclave” had the thinnest potential win package of any supposed Best Picture frontrunner. It is only now in the final two weeks that “Conclave” has a real workable win package that could do the job, as Screenplay and Editing Oscars would give it the same winning combination that “Argo” and “Crash” had.
Yet when “Argo” won it all, it swept all the guilds and eventually had the most Best Picture wins all season, even despite Ben Affleck’s Best Director snub. Up to this point, “Conclave” has not matched “Argo’s” season-long performance in almost any way, except for BAFTA and SAG wins and having its director miss an Oscar nomination. In fact, if “Conclave” were to pull out a Best Picture win, it would most resemble two other films that were invisible for Best Picture until the very end.
With its mere four Best Picture wins before Oscar night, “Conclave” would break the record of fewest pre-Oscar Best Picture prizes for a winner in this era, beating out the five that both “The King’s Speech” and “CODA” had before they won anyway. In 2010, “The King’s Speech” only had Best Picture wins at BAFTA, SAG, the PGA, the Phoenix Film Critics Society, and the AARP before it upset “The Social Network” at the Oscars, while in 2021, “CODA’s” only wins after sweeping Sundance were from the PGA, SAG, the Nevada Film Critics Society, the Chicago Independent Film Critics Circle and the Hollywood Critics Association.
Even within those examples, “The King’s Speech” and “CODA” did much more during the season than “Conclave” has done so far. Although Tom Hooper was literally shut out in Best Director all year until the DGAs and Oscars, “The King’s Speech” always had a Colin Firth Best Actor win and a Best Original Screenplay victory in its back pocket to work with. As for “CODA,” Troy Kotsur was the second biggest Best Supporting Actor winner of the season until he overtook Kodi-Smit McPhee at the industry and televised awards, which bought time for Sian Hader’s script to also upset “The Power of the Dog” for Best Adapted Screenplay at the last minute.
There have been other surprising Best Picture winners in this era, like “Moonlight” in its last-second shocker over “La La Land,” “Parasite” making history over PGA/DGA/BAFTA winner “1917,” and “Spotlight” winning with just Best Picture and Best Adapted Screenplay Oscars only. Nonetheless, “Moonlight” had been splitting Best Picture wins with “La La Land” the entire season, while both “Spotlight” and “Parasite” were the critics season champions by a wide margin. As much as the manner of their wins seemed shocking on Oscar night, they had still been winning big in their categories all year – far bigger than “Conclave” has up to this date.
A “Conclave” Best Picture win would be the most out-of-nowhere triumph, at least in the context of its season-long journey, since “The King’s Speech” and “CODA.” On paper, the most fitting comparison would be between “Conclave” and “The King’s Speech” since they are both far more traditional, British-friendly films than their flashier, new school competition in “Anora” and “The Social Network.” However, while both “Conclave” and “The King’s Speech” won big at BAFTA and SAG, only “The King’s Speech” also won at the PGA and DGA – whereas “Conclave” lost to “Anora” at both guilds.
In that regard, “Conclave” would be somewhat more like “CODA” as a last-second winner, as they both didn’t seem likely to win more than one Oscar until the very last moment. Unlike “Conclave,” “CODA” launched its comeback with a win at the PGA and wasn’t even nominated for BAFTA Best Film or Best Director at the DGA. Yet unlike “Conclave,” “CODA” had a far more formidable frontrunner than “Anora” to catch in “The Power of the Dog,” which thoroughly swept in Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor, Best Supporting Actor, and Best Adapted Screenplay during critics season.
Despite that, “The Power of the Dog” ultimately showed weakness among guild and industry voters in all those categories, save for Best Director. By the time “CODA” pulled ahead in Best Supporting Actor and Best Adapted Screenplay, and by the time it became clear “The Power of the Dog” wouldn’t win anything except Best Director, Oscar night was a foregone conclusion by the time the final envelope was read.
“CODA” didn’t have to rally against a movie that won PGA, DGA, and WGA prizes, like “Conclave” is trying to do against “Anora.” What’s more, “Conclave” only really has one Oscar truly in the bag right now for Best Adapted Screenplay, whereas “The King’s Speech” had two sown up in Best Actor and Best Original Screenplay before finishing off “The Social Network.” Until “Conclave” locks up Best Film Editing at the Oscars, and until “Anora’s” fate is decided in its three coin-flip categories for Best Director, Best Actress, and Best Original Screenplay, this could still all be one significant exercise in false hope.
If it isn’t, and if “Conclave” does win Best Picture with such a slim resume this season – at least when it comes to wins for anything but Best Adapted Screenplay – it will be a victory unlike any before in the expanded ballot era. While it would end up with a winning package similar to either “Spotlight” or “Argo,” as well as a trajectory similar in some ways to both “The King’s Speech” and “CODA,” none of those four films won Best Picture in a way “Conclave” is trying to do.
No film in recent memory has won Best Picture with such a thin overall performance throughout an entire season as “Conclave” has. As such, despite how BAFTA and SAG Ensemble voters ignored that in ways almost no other voting group has all year, it’s still hard to believe – ironic enough – that Oscar voters would do the same.
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