Not even a week after the 2025 Academy Awards season drew to a close, we already have a strong 2026 Oscar contender blasting into theaters. It’s no surprise there is plenty of hype for “Project Hail Mary,” considering the star power on screen, behind the camera, and the pages it’s adapted from, but the level we’re seeing is hard for anybody to ignore. With a strong Metacritic score, insane Rotten Tomatoes and audience scores, and the beginnings of a box office explosion, the question moves on from if it’s a contender, to how big can it truly be?
More and more, we’re seeing these undeniable early-year contenders, most notably last year’s record-breaking “Sinners,” whose success is probably leading to how quickly people are accepting Phil Lord and Chris Miller’s sci-fi epic as a major early Oscar contender. The fact of the matter is that these types of juggernauts get in, no matter what time of year they are released. With the acclaim this film has and the money it is making, it is going to stay on people’s minds enough all year to almost certainly secure a Best Picture nomination. In fact, like “Sinners” or “Everything Everywhere All At Once,” its early release and time alone in the spotlight boosts its visibility even higher, rather than getting lost in the shuffle of endless fall releases. If you put this film in any other year, it would be towards the top of any lineup in terms of mass appeal and success, and this year should be no different. The next question becomes harder: What other Oscar nominations can it get?
Best Director is worth considering, even this far out. Even if the competition by the fall turns out to be weak, the directors’ branch tends to snub directors of this ilk. Lord and Miller here may align closer to Denis Villeneuve for “Dune” or Christopher Nolan for “Inception,” a box the critical acclaim and thematic resonance of “Sinners” kept Ryan Coogler from falling into. Or maybe, like Coogler they could turn out like the Daniels for “Everything Everywhere All At Once?” The film is stunning visually, and there is a lot to admire from a directing standpoint, but as mostly a pure emotional cinematic ride with little deeper to say, it’s easy to see the branch’s noses being turned up at it. If the film starts to enter the upper tier of contenders, perhaps they welcome the directing duo in, but this is the category that seems most dependent on the eventual field being filled before a call can be made on their inclusion. It’s much easier to see a Best Adapted Screenplay nomination for the film, given Drew Goddard’s stature, even getting nominated before for an Andy Weir adaptation with “The Martian” (a film that also did not have its director nominated). Given the beloved source material and the film’s dialogue-heavy nature, it would be surprising if this didn’t come along with a Best Picture nominations.
Before venturing below the line, the important topic is the film’s Lead Actor, Ryan Gosling. With how much of the film rests on his shoulders, he will undoubtedly be in the conversation through the end of the year for Best Actor. While obviously his getting nominated depends entirely on competition, which there already seems to be plenty of on paper, the potential strength of the film, and how much he brings to it, may end with him being a staple that other actors have to work their way around to get nominated alongside him. While the film is in its early days, we don’t have the exact data yet, but it feels like he’s on screen for over 90% of the film and has flawless chemistry with his inhuman co-star, Rocky. He will definitely show up at precursors throughout the season, and with a film of this size, will most likely cross the finish line for a Best Actor nomination. Fellow Academy Award nominee Sandra Huller isn’t the most noteworthy in the film, however, depending on how the rest of the year goes (particularly how her year goes, with the upcoming releases of “1949,” “Rose,” and “Digger”), there is potential for a coattail Best Supporting Actress nomination from a previous nominee with a good amount of screen time.
When it comes to crafts, these are pretty much a slam dunk, or at least as much as they can be, a year ahead of time. But a film that looks like this and is this beloved seems as secure as anything can be for Best Cinematography (previous Oscar-winner Greig Fraser), as well as Best Visual Effects, Best Sound, and Best Production Design. The latter has even been discussed quite a bit, with the lack of a green screen in the film being a major talking point. Best Film Editing definitely depends on the film’s overall strength, but given the technical prowess and how it cuts between two timelines, it isn’t far-fetched. With the diminishing returns of sequels we’ve seen time and time again, the notion of it beating “Dune: Part Three” in the Best Sound and Visual Effects categories is an interesting possibility to toss around this far ahead of time. The same way “Wicked” overshadowed “Dune: Part Two” as the big technical player two years ago, this could do the same for the next chapter in Villeneuve’s saga. Neither had to deal with a new Christopher Nolan epic, but these things are worth entertaining when discussing “Project Hail Mary’s” chances specifically. Many will say Best Original Score is shaky given Daniel Pemberton’s lack of what many thought was a secure nomination for “Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse,” but given this film’s stronger Best Picture contender status and a more traditional score, it feels safe to predict this as his second nomination after a forgettable Best Original Song nomination for “The Trial of the Chicago 7.”
MOST LIKELY
Best Picture
Best Adapted Screenplay
Best Production Design
Best Sound
Best Visual Effects
LIKELY
Best Actor
Best Cinematography
Best Film Editing
Best Original Score
LEAST LIKELY
Best Director
Best Supporting Actress
It’s always a divisive conversation discussing a contender this early in the year. Still, we’ve seen time and time again recently that when a film dominates the conversation this early in the year, it’s rare for it to be forgotten. 2026 in particular has a lot of potential Oscar contenders on the blockbuster side, including “Dune: Part Three,” “The Odyssey,” “Narnia: The Magician’s Nephew,” and “Michael,” among others. However, with “Project Hail Mary” coming out first and establishing itself so strongly, those films may have to contend with Lord and Miller’s latest rather than the other way around. Not so much of a Hail Mary for this epic sci-fi comedy after all.
Have you seen “Project Hail Mary” yet? If so, what did you think of it? How do you feel about its Oscar potential? Please let us know in the comments section below or on Next Best Picture’s X account.
