With “After the Hunt” officially securing a world premiere at the Venice Film Festival, announced as the Opening Night Film for NYFF63, and with a debut trailer revealed last week, the first serious round of Oscar buzz for Julia Roberts in over ten years is in full swing. As the preseason favorite to win Best Actress among the NBP staff, and as a consensus early nominee in other places like Gold Derby, Roberts starts a run that might conceivably go one of two ways we just saw last season – the way that Adrien Brody went, or the way that Angelina Jolie went.
When the 2024 fall festival season started, Jolie was the NBP preseason Best Actress favorite for “Maria” who had roughly the same narrative Roberts has now – a past Oscar winner from decades ago who hadn’t had a serious awards contender in years, was making a big prestige comeback with a prestige filmmaker, and who was launching her return in Venice. But there was another actor there who hadn’t won or contended for an Oscar in decades, who launched their first prestige film as a lead in decades at Venice, and who was also being guided by an artsy filmmaker.
In that particular case, Brody emerged as the real comeback sensation at Venice for “The Brutalist” and went on to win his second Oscar months later. In the case of Jolie, however, her Oscar favorite status slowly but surely faded after “Maria” premiered to less rapturous reviews for that film, despite Jolie’s own rapturous reviews. Eventually, she was snubbed by one major voting body after another, culminating in her exclusion from the Academy.
Last year gave us two wildly divergent sagas of past Oscar winners making their award season comebacks, with the one who ultimately won again not the one most people predicted in the preseason. And now a year later, Roberts is heading for her own path that could either make her the next Brody or the next Jolie.
Like Brody, Roberts won her first Oscar at the beginning of the 2000s for “Erin Brockovich,” two years before Brody won his first for “The Pianist.” Like Brody, Roberts didn’t have many, if any, successes that matched her early 2000s level – although unlike Brody, Roberts at least got another Oscar nomination in 2013 for “August: Osage County,” and was an Emmy and Golden Globe nominee in recent years as well. She may have actually been more like Jolie, whose prestige and box office power had their own ups and downs in the 2000s and 2010s after her Oscar win; yet, she was still nominated again in 2008 for “Changeling” and fell just short for “A Mighty Heart” in 2007.
Nonetheless, “Maria” was the biggest swing Jolie had taken with Oscar voters in many years, especially with “Jackie” and “Spencer” director Pablo Larrain at the helm. A year later, Roberts is taking her biggest swing at Oscar voters in many years with “After the Hunt,” especially with “Call Me by Your Name” and “Challengers” director Luca Guadagnino at the helm. And in both cases, preseason voters at NBP and elsewhere had them as the initial Best Actress favorite, and on track for their first Oscar win since around 25 years ago.
Still, there were some warning signs around Jolie even before “Maria” underperformed at Venice, just as there were for Roberts before her own Venice premiere. For all the anticipation around “Maria,” it was helmed by a director in Larrain who briefly flirted with Academy recognition for “Jackie,” but seemed to have lost favor with voters over “Spencer” and “El Conde.” Likewise, for all the anticipation around “After the Hunt,” it is from a director in Guadagnino who briefly flirted with Academy recognition himself for “Call Me by Your Name,” yet his subsequent films like “Challengers,” “Queer,” and others didn’t receive a single nomination.
Just as Oscar voters seemed to hit their limits with an experimental and perhaps divisive director like Larrain, to the point where Jolie paid the price for it, they may have already hit their limits with someone like Guadagnino, to the point where it can hurt Roberts and “After the Hunt” too. Yet “After the Hunt” is not an artsy and revisionist biopic like “Maria,” “Spencer,” and “Jackie,” and doesn’t seem to be potentially alienating in the way that Guadagnino films like “Queer,” “Bones and All,” and “Challengers” were to voters. Nonetheless, if its take on a #MeToo inspired and questioning story rubs the wrong way to both sides of the aisle, it could be another matter.
Still, “The Brutalist” rubbed the wrong way at certain points to detractors and even to some supporters, and it didn’t derail Brody’s comeback story or lead acting campaign. However, his film was an epic story of the immigrant experience in post-WWII America, helmed by a relatively new awards season newcomer, Brady Corbet. In addition, Brody had already been building up his resume again in films like “Asteroid City” and “Blonde,” and shows like “Winning Time” and “Succession,” before making his leading man comeback.
Most of all, Brody was boosted by “The Brutalist” being an across-the-board, win-competitive Oscar contender, which also garnered two other acting nominations, as well as writing and directing nominations for Corbet, and two technical wins for Best Cinematography and Best Score. Jolie had nowhere near that kind of support for “Maria,” as it only managed a last-minute Best Cinematography nomination and nothing more. And for Roberts this year, while “After the Hunt” is projected as an across-the-board nominee for Best Picture, Best Director, two supporting acting nominations for Andrew Garfield and Ayo Edebiri, and Best Original Screenplay, it can just as easily have a much smaller potential package once Venice sees it.
“After the Hunt” is NBP’s preseason Best Picture favorite, but past recent preseason favorites from MGM like “Licorice Pizza,” “Women Talking,” and “Nickel Boys” were far from winning competitively by the end of their seasons. For that matter, “Queer” was projected as a preseason Best Picture nominee from Guadagnino last season before its Venice premiere. Yet, it fell well short of that and eventually cost Daniel Craig a Best Actor nomination in the process. And even if “After the Hunt” has a better reception from Venice, it could still be anything from a Best Picture bubble film, a contender to only get Roberts, Garfield, and Edebiri their own nominations, or a Roberts comeback narrative play only.
One significant, if concerning, new development is that “After the Hunt” is playing out of competition at Venice. Yet even “Maria” and “Queer” played in competition last year, and “The Brutalist” obviously contended for the Golden Lion and won the Silver Lion for Corbet. It might be a strategic decision from MGM that doesn’t show fear over the movie’s quality. Still, the fact that no other fellow preseason favorites/Venice premieres like “Frankenstein,” “Bugonia,” “Jay Kelly,” “The Testament of Ann Lee,” “No Other Choice,” “A House of Dynamite,” and “The Smashing Machine” did that makes this raise all the more eyebrows.
When “The Brutalist” launched from Venice, Brody didn’t have a crowded Best Actor field to beat, as preseason favorites Craig and Colman Domingo dropped off, Ralph Fiennes didn’t get boosted enough by “Conclave,” and Timothee Chalamet only managed a SAG win before Oscar night. The 2025 Best Actress field might be slightly more crowded for Roberts to get through, depending on whether “Sentimental Value” is big enough to take Renate Reinsve all the way, whether “Wicked: For Good” can get Cynthia Erivo all the way this time around, whether the likes of Jesse Buckley have a major breakthrough, whether Jennifer Lawrence winds up the field’s big comeback story instead, whether Corbet’s wife and co-writer Mona Fastvold could make Amanda Seyfried her own personal Brody for “The Testament of Ann Lee,” or whether there’s another future Best Actress frontrunner we’re not expecting yet.
When it comes to Oscar winners from decades ago trying to get back on top again, Brody was one extreme in the most successful way last year, while Jolie wound up at the other, less successful extreme. Maybe that points to Roberts splitting the difference this year, as someone who at least outdoes Jolie in salvaging a nomination, but can’t contend for or pull out the win like Brody did. Ideally, “After the Hunt’s” Venice premiere will make it easier to figure out where Roberts fits in, or perhaps it will only get more muddled from there.
What did you think of the Venice/NYFF announcement this week for “After the Hunt?” Are you looking forward to seeing the film? Do you think Julia Roberts will be nominated and win Best Actress this year? Please let us know in the comments section below and on Next Best Picture’s X account and check out the team’s latest Oscar predictions here.
You can follow Robert and hear more of his thoughts on the Oscars & Film on X @Robertdoc1984
