Going into the fall and winter, several movies are being projected as Oscar favorites and sure-fire nominees sight unseen, as per usual. But it is also per usual to have a lot of those preseason favorites collapse as soon as anyone sees them, and there were a lot of examples of that last season. As such, there are very clear paths for the presumed top films this fall festival season, and the presumed top films premiering afterward, to fall off the mark in the same way.
Some of these unknowns will finally reveal themselves in the upcoming fall festival gauntlet, while others will wait until later. But as much faith as there is right now for these assumed contenders, they can just as easily be duplicates of the last crop of movies we all picked to take over the race this time last year.
“Wild Horse Nine” = “Jay Kelly?”
The 2025 fall festival season started with “Jay Kelly” as the biggest premiere from Venice – a comedy/drama from a previous nominated auteur looking for his overdue first major Oscar win, starring an icon presumably set to be a nominee for the first time in decades, a supporting actor presumably set to finally get his first nomination, and a past winner looking to get right back in. There seemed to be no way “Jay Kelly” would be anything but a top five contender after the festivals screened it, and then even after the first muddled reviews came out, there seemed to be little chance industry voters wouldn’t just save it anyway. But in the end, there wasn’t a single nomination for the entire film, let alone Noah Baumbach, George Clooney, Adam Sandler or Laura Dern.
Now a year later, the biggest premiere from Venice is set to be “Wild Horse Nine” – another comedy-drama from a previously nominated auteur looking for his overdue first major Oscar win, starring an icon presumably set to be a nominee for the first time in decades, a supporting actor presumably set to finally get his first nomination, and a past winner looking to get right back in. But Martin McDonagh has had his last two films become across-the-board nominees, unlike Baumbach before “Jay Kelly.” Meanwhile, John Malkovich may not have Clooney’s star power but does have an even more overdue narrative, Steve Buscemi has waited longer for a first Oscar nomination than his longtime friend/frequent co-star Sandler, and past winner Sam Rockwell looks to have a much larger role than past winner Dern did in “Jay Kelly.”
Between them, Parker Posey and newcomer Mariana di Girolamo, “Wild Horse Nine” has been projected as a major contender in almost every major category for months leading up to its Venice unveiling, just like “Jay Kelly” was. The assumption is that “Wild Horse Nine” may well get McDonagh the major Oscar win he was denied for “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri,” and “The Banshees of Inisherin,” just as “Jay Kelly” was assumed to be Baumbach’s big chance for the Oscar win he couldn’t get for “Marriage Story.”
As soon as Venice and then Telluride audiences made it clear that “Jay Kelly” was no “Marriage Story,” it began a slow but steady decline, as pundits had to let go of the assumption that Academy voters would come to its rescue. Likewise, if “Wild Horse Nine” winds up falling well short of “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri” and “The Banshees of Inisherin” raves at Venice and possibly Telluride, will assumptions that industry voters will just check off a McDonagh movie for major nominations anyway die a slow or even faster death?
“The Debut” = “After the Hunt?”
“The Debut” is a comedy from actor-turned-writer/director Jesse Eisenberg, who already has Oscar nominations for acting and writing. “After the Hunt” is a far blacker comedy/drama/quasi-mystery from Luca Guadagnino, a far flashier filmmaker who still has never received a nomination as a director. In addition, “After the Hunt” has darker, more controversial subject matter involving cancel culture and power imbalances. However, “The Debut” may be a lighter look at a power clash/imbalance between novice community theater actress Julianne Moore and demanding theater director Paul Giamatti.
Yet before its Venice premiere last year, many from Next Best Picture and other outlets were not only picking “After the Hunt” to get Guadagnino nominated after several snubs, but to get nominations and also wins for cast members like Julia Roberts, Andrew Garfield and Ayo Edebiri. A year later, “The Debut” is another popular pick to get as many as two cast members Oscar wins, between Best Actress preseason favorite Moore – a past winner and a preseason pick to get a second, just like Roberts was last August – and Best Supporting Actor preseason favorite Giamatti. And while Eisenberg wasn’t snubbed as a writer of “A Real Pain,” the expectation is that “The Debut” will at least get the Best Picture nomination “A Real Pain” barely fell short of, just as many thought “After the Hunt” would avenge Best Picture snubs for Guadagnino films like “Challengers.”
Of course, as soon as “After the Hunt” screened at Venice, Guadagnino and his actors almost instantly fell off the charts the rest of the season, save for a token Roberts Golden Globe nomination. If “The Debut” disappoints at Telluride, TIFF and NYFF, then it will surely take Moore and Giamatti down with it and leave Best Actress and Best Supporting Actor with a big hole at the top. Last year’s Best Actress, Best Supporting Actor and Best Supporting Actress fields recovered quickly even with Roberts, Garfield and Edebiri going from favorites to also-rans – but will replacements for Moore and Giamatti fill in for them just as quickly if they have to?
“The Social Reckoning” = “Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere?”
“Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere” wasn’t a unanimously agreed-upon preseason pick for Best Picture contention, especially after spotty early trailers. In the same vein, this year’s fall biopic of sorts featuring Jeremy Allen White and Jeremy Strong isn’t considered a sure-fire Best Picture possibility, especially after a spotty opening trailer. Nonetheless, because the Academy loved “The Social Reckoning’s” predecessor “The Social Network” – to a point – the assumption is voters could just check off nominations for this one, just like many assumed that the Academy’s love of musical biopics would make “Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere” an automatic check off.
At the very least, many presumed that if “Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere” wasn’t a Best Picture factor, it would at least get its top stars in – Allen White following years of success at the Emmys, and Strong a year after his first Oscar nomination for “The Apprentice.” Now, a year later, some think that even if “The Social Reckoning” isn’t a Best Picture player, it could still get its top stars in contention – Mikey Madison two years after her Oscar win for “Anora,” and Strong once again transforming as a loathed real-life figure in present-day Mark Zuckerberg.
One big difference is “The Social Reckoning” is from past Oscar winner Aaron Sorkin as both writer and director – a double dip that may be way more dreaded by audiences than by industry voters – while “Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere” came from far less decorated director/co-writer Scott Cooper. Will Sorkin’s name alone, not to mention a movie with much punchier dialogue in some shape or form, get “The Social Reckoning” the kind of traction with voters that last year’s Allen White/Strong led true story about one of the most famous men of our time did not?
“Digger” and “Dune: Part Three” = “Wicked: For Good” and “Avatar: Fire and Ash?”
Although the fall festivals will separate a lot of preseason contenders from pretenders, it won’t clear up the fate of every presumed favorite this fall. Once the festivals end, the next big countdowns will be for “Digger” on October 2, and then “Dune: Part Three” on December 18. While each hopes to be the next “One Battle After Another,” which skipped the fall festivals and won Best Picture anyway, there are two other late-breaking fall 2025 films they want to avoid resembling.
“Wicked: For Good” and “Avatar: Fire and Ash” were sequels to past Oscar winners and contenders that looked to take the next step to a Best Picture win, just as “Dune: Part Three” is aiming for. “Digger” isn’t a direct sequel to anything. Yet, since it is from two-time Best Director winner Alejandro Gonzalez Iñárritu and has long been assumed to be Tom Cruise’s competitive Oscar coronation, it also has a ton of Oscar pedigree it is trying to live up to.
But last year, the Academy proved that just because it honored “Wicked” and “Avatar” movies before, it didn’t mean the newer ones would get checked off too. Not only did “Wicked: For Good” get no nominations at all, despite its leads seeming locked in months earlier, but “Avatar: Fire and Ash” was the first film in its franchise not to get a Best Picture nomination, though the warning signs were there.
Likewise, it can’t be ruled out that “Dune: Part Three” is a threequel which fails to match its two predecessors as a Best Picture nominee too, at least if everything beyond its visuals falls flat this time. Then again, “Dune: Part Three” is the final part of its franchise’s saga, at least in its current form, whereas “Avatar: Fire and Ash” was advertised as the middle film in its franchise’s saga, at least if James Cameron does indeed have two more in him. Building towards a definitive and likely far darker ending than anything in the “Avatar” series may give “Dune: Part Three” an extra leg up, yet threequels opening in mid-December are still not bulletproof.
“Digger” is opening way earlier than “Wicked: For Good,” and is meant to be a more realistic fantasy movie about a garishly made-up anti-hero – albeit one favored by those in power this time – who dooms their world and fights a propaganda war as much as a real one. Still, “Wicked: For Good” was presumed safe as a preseason contender despite some concerns, mainly from those who saw Act Two of the musical, and was definitely presumed safe for Cynthia Erivo and Ariana Grande. In that same fashion, “Digger” is presumed a safe bet right now despite some concerns, mainly from those very concerned by the look and feel of the first trailer and who remember Iñárritu’s last film “Bardo,” but is still definitely presumed safe for Cruise if not John Goodman, Sandra Huller and others too.
“Digger” certainly won’t have the kind of box office “Wicked: For Good” had even after critics turned against it, but that just means it has less margin for error. If its reviews tank the same way, will Cruise suddenly go from certain winner to outright snub too, not to mention his co-stars? At this point, it seems impossible to think “Digger” won’t come away with any nominations, especially with the track records of those involved – but that is exactly how thinking for “Wicked: For Good” went until the bottom fell out.
Just because one presumed too-big-to-fail preseason favorite last year got absolutely nothing, it doesn’t mean one has to be totally blanked this year as well – much like how the failures of “Jay Kelly,” “After the Hunt,” “Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere,” and “Avatar: Fire and Ash” aren’t required to be matched this year. Yet every year, without fail, something that looks like a major Best Picture contender and certain nominee drops off the map as soon as people finally see it, if not several somethings every year.
Between “Wild Horse Nine,” “The Debut,” “Digger,” “Dune: Part Three,” and “The Social Reckoning,” if not others like “Behemoth!,” “Ink,” and “Elsinore,” some if not almost all of these unseen but assumed contenders will crash and burn, like so many from last fall did – but which ones will it actually be?
Do you believe any of these Best Picture contenders are similar to last year’s contenders? Which films are you currently predicting for Best Picture before the fall film festivals begin? Please let us know in the comments section below and on Next Best Picture’s X account, and check out Next Best Picture’s latest Oscar predictions here.
