“Conclave” is considered a major preseason Oscar favorite not only because of its source material or because of stars Ralph Fiennes, Stanley Tucci, John Lithgow, and Isabella Rossellini but also because it is the first film from director Edward Berger after he made “All Quiet on the Western Front” the 2022 Oscar runner-up. Although the teaser trailer was misleading about Berger being an Oscar winner himself – due more to outdated Best International Feature Oscar rules than anything else – the assumption is that since his last movie was a big Oscar winner, “Conclave” should be one, too. However, the last three Oscar seasons have had movies that decidedly disprove such a theory.
A year ago, some Oscar pundits assumed that just because Emerald Fennell won an Oscar for creating “Promising Young Woman,” her follow-up film “Saltburn” would also be right up the Academy’s alley. Yet as soon as “Saltburn” proved to be way more over the top and potentially alienating than even “Promising Young Woman” was, it was written off much faster.
Perhaps that was premature after “Saltburn” found an audience on digital right before the nominations and after brief hope was raised that it would get at least some Oscar recognition. But on nomination morning, “Saltburn” was completely shut out – with no Best Picture nomination, no repeat nomination for Fennell as writer or director, no Barry Keoghan nomination for the second year in a row, no Supporting Actress nod for Rosamund Pike, and not even a token Best Cinematography nomination.
Even so, it wasn’t the most embarrassing recent sophomore jinx for a movie that a major 2020 Oscar winner made. That belonged to “The Son” in 2022, which was the heavily anticipated follow-up to Florian Zeller’s “The Father” – the virtual Oscar runner-up of 2020. That and much more may make “The Son” the exact kind of cautionary tale “Conclave” and Berger hope to avoid.
“The Son” was widely expected to put Zeller back in the Oscar race, two years after his last film was the biggest late surging contender of the season – much like “All Quiet on the Western Front” became in 2022. Much like “Conclave” is being viewed as a film that might get Fiennes a Best Actor Oscar after decades of unrecognized dramatic and genre work, “The Son” was widely predicted to do that for Hugh Jackman before its fall festival premiere. And much like “Conclave” has at least three potential supporting cast members as projected Oscar nominees – two of which are in the same category – “The Son’s” wildest projections also pegged as many as three possible supporting nominees and perhaps two in one category.
Given the massive success of “The Father,” the newfound power of Zeller, and the star power of Jackman, Laura Dern, Vanessa Kirby, and Anthony Hopkins, there seemed to be no way “The Son” could miss – much like few expect “Conclave” can miss with the newfound power of Berger and the star power of Fiennes, Tucci, Lithgow, and Rossellini. Yet anyone who watched “The Son” fall apart after its Venice and Toronto premieres and then lived to tear it apart mercilessly online and on podcasts can attest that such a combination can go south very, very fast.
The sophomore jinx crushed Zeller in 2022, then was a little more merciful but still thorough towards Fennell in 2023. They both also fell well short of 2021’s big cautionary tale, when a famed director’s next film after he won multiple Oscars came nowhere close to those standards as well – but not as disastrously.
After Guillermo del Toro won Best Picture and Best Director for “The Shape of Water” in 2017, all eyes were on his next film, “Nightmare Alley,” to try and threaten a repeat in 2021. Yet it didn’t come close, as “Nightmare Alley” didn’t win a single Oscar and didn’t put del Toro back in Best Director contention either. But unlike “The Son” and “Saltburn” the following two years, “Nightmare Alley” was at least a follow-up film that did get a Best Picture nomination, even if it was probably the last film to squeeze in the field – which says something in a year where “Don’t Look Up” also got in.
Nonetheless, del Toro never had a chance to match what “The Shape of Water” did with the Academy, just like Zeller never had a chance to match “The Father” the next year and Fennell never had a chance to match “Promising Young Woman” the following year. As such, if this trend continues for another year, it will undoubtedly be with Berger and “Conclave” falling well short of “All Quiet on the Western Front.” Not many pundits are guessing it would do that right now, but few thought the kind of collapses “The Son,” “Saltburn,” and “Nightmare Alley” would suffer either.
Yet despite that ominous recent history, “Conclave” and Berger have some advantages that those other examples did not. Berger is a veteran director, not someone making their second-ever film like Zeller and Fennell did in 2022 and 2023. He might have more in common with someone like del Toro, although del Toro had numerous hits in America and actually won Oscars before “Nightmare Alley.” Berger doesn’t have those advantages, so perhaps the Academy might be less inclined to give him a safety net if “Conclave” underachieves.
Yet when “Nightmare Alley” fell short of its highest hopes, it still had a prolific Oscar-winning studio in Searchlight Pictures to push it into Best Picture anyway. “Conclave” might also benefit from having the proper studio on its side, as Focus Features has positioned it to be its big play this season – like with “The Holdovers” last year, “Tar” in 2022, “Belfast” in 2021 and “Promising Young Woman” itself in 2020. That trend might outweigh all the others, given that three of those four films won a significant above-the-line Oscar.
But there is one other newfound trend that “Conclave” suddenly has to fight against, and that comes from its newfound PG rating. Despite the widespread belief that it would be a PG-13 movie, “Conclave” was revealed to only be rated PG for “thematic material and smoking,” despite the trailer teasing an explosion at the Vatican and a secret that could shatter much more than the election of a new Pope.
PG movies can still receive major Oscar nominations, like “Hugo,” “Life of Pi,” “Up,” and “Toy Story 3” in the first few years of the preferential ballot era. But if “Conclave” hopes to win Best Picture or any other major Oscar, it would have to do what almost no PG film has done in the last 35 years. Ever since “Driving Miss Daisy” won Best Picture as a PG film in 1989, only four above-the-line Oscars have been won by a PG movie ever since – “Howard’s End’s” Best Actress and Best Adapted Screenplay wins in 1992, “Sense and Sensibility’s” Best Adapted Screenplay win in 1995, and “Life of Pi’s” Best Director victory in 2012.
Since “Conclave” doesn’t have 3D tigers, Ang Lee, or Emma Thompson, it can hardly rely on those past examples for a sign. Of course, Academy voters won’t automatically disqualify “Conclave,” its actors, or Berger just because of a PG rating. However, it might make it that much harder for them to stand out against more explicit or experimental contenders like “Sing Sing,” “Anora,” “Emilia Perez,” and whatever survives the coming fall festival gauntlet.
First and foremost, “Conclave” has to survive that gauntlet itself, which “The Son” couldn’t do and which “Saltburn” only limped out of at best. If it actually keeps Fiennes, Tucci, Lithgow, Rossellini, and Berger in the Oscar conversation after its screenings at Telluride or Toronto – or merely keeps only one or two of them as contenders – it will already have done better than the last two years’s sophomore jinxes then and there. Still, that doesn’t mean it couldn’t go the way of “Nightmare Alley” and fall well short of being competitive by nomination time without the chance of an “All Quiet on the Western Front” kind of surge right before Oscar night.
For now, many honestly think “Conclave” could finish the job that “All Quiet on the Western Front” couldn’t. Or at the least, they believe it could finally give Fiennes, Tucci, Lithgow, or Rossellini – if not all of them – the chance at career-capping Oscars at long last. Either way, since Berger made an adaptation of a famed book, one of the biggest and most surprising Oscar winners of 2022, few are arguing that he couldn’t possibly do it again in 2024.
Of course, few argued such a repeat wasn’t beneath Fennell in 2023, Zeller in 2022, or del Toro in 2021 – not until they actually saw their movies. If similar words are eaten with Berger and “Conclave” after Telluride and TIFF, their potential downfall will shake up this Oscar race fairly early. However, it can’t be said we haven’t seen such a shakeup several times lately.
What do you think will be the Oscar fate for “Conclave?” Are you looking forward to the film? Please let us know in the comments below or on Next Best Picture’s X account and be sure to check out Next Best Picture’s latest Oscar predictions here.
You can follow Robert and hear more of his thoughts on the Oscars & Film on X at @Robertdoc1984
