The first reactions to “Gladiator II” brought us no closer to figuring out if it is a Best Picture nominee like its predecessor, if not a Best Picture winner. Yet the one thing everyone seems to agree on is that Denzel Washington is a sure-fire nominee for Best Supporting Actor, regardless of his movie’s fate. However, that has pretty much been the story of his entire awards season career.
Since his first nomination for “Cry Freedom” in 1987, Washington has racked up nine Oscar nominations and is now poised to be the sixth actor ever to reach 10 or more. But if “Gladiator II” misses Best Picture despite getting Washington in, it will join every other movie Washington has ever been nominated for except “Fences” in 2016.
As legendary as Washington’s career and Oscar resume has been, it really has been more in spite of his films’ Oscar performances elsewhere. Not only have both his Oscar wins been for non-Best Picture nominees in “Glory” and “Training Day,” but so have his nominations for films like “Cry Freedom,” “Malcolm X,” “The Hurricane,” “Flight,” “Roman J. Israel, Esq.,” and “The Tragedy of Macbeth” – and perhaps “Gladiator II” soon as well.
Some of this could be excused by the Oscars 5-film Best Picture field before 2009, as it is hard to picture “Glory” and “Malcolm X” missing the cut in an eight, nine, or 10-film field without blowback ensuing. But the true proof of Washington’s special place with voters has come after the Best Picture expansion, as he’s had four more nominations since then, regardless of whether voters and critics liked his movies or not.
If not for a Screenplay nomination, Washington would have been a solo nominee for “Flight” in 2012, as it otherwise didn’t take off from the Best Picture bubble. More recently, “The Tragedy of Macbeth” did better with Production Design and Cinematography nominations, yet Washington was its only serious nomination contender above the line, even with Joel Coen and Frances McDormand involved.
But in between, the ultimate fluke Washington nomination was in 2017 for “Roman J. Israel, Esq.,” which was one of the worst-reviewed films in this era to get a major acting nomination. Despite its 55 percent Rotten Tomatoes score and 58 on Metacritic, none of it was held against Washington by critics or especially by voters. Yet that seems to be the defining feature of Washington’s career, whether he’s let off the hook for an otherwise mediocre action movie or an Oscar film that can’t ride his coattails.
The one single exception in his entire career to date has been “Fences” in 2016, a movie he himself directed and would have gotten his third Oscar for if not for Casey Affleck. Yet even this has some asterisks since “Fences” was likely in the bottom half of the Best Picture nominees that year and probably needed Viola Davis’s Best Supporting Actress sweep to put it over the top as much as it needed Washington. Perhaps if Davis had been moved to Lead and lost as a result, it might have been another matter, yet Washington surely would have stayed in the Best Actor top two regardless. Either way, whatever the outcome is for a would-be Oscar contender with Washington, he always seems to escape the consequences. But maybe that is also in part because there is such a small sample of evidence.
For all of Washington’s accolades, it must still be acknowledged that the majority of his movies have been more about action and box office than awards. Between “The Equalizer” franchise, his other action films with Antoine Fuqua, and his decades of work with the late Tony Scott, Oscar bait films have been the exception more than the rule in Washington’s recent filmography. Ever since both “American Gangster” and “The Great Debaters” in 2007, the only Washington films that have aimed for Oscar attention have been “Flight,” “Fences,” “Roman J. Israel, Esq.,” “The Tragedy of Macbeth” and now “Gladiator II” – and Washington hasn’t missed or likely isn’t about to miss for any one of them.
Every single time Washington has even been remotely considered for a nomination, he has been granted one – at least every single time since 2007. The last time he aimed for one and missed was for his last Ridley Scott movie, “American Gangster,” which was a reason to give some pause until the first “Gladiator II” reactions came in. Since it seems not even the rocky trajectory of modern-day Scott can stop Washington, that only backs up what a special exception he is even further, at least when he deems to use it.
Other actors like Meryl Streep, Jack Nicholson, Al Pacino, Robert De Niro, Cate Blanchett, Judi Dench, Kate Winslet, and Glenn Close seem to get nominated every time they put their hat in the ring. But even they have been snubbed a few times over the years or just couldn’t survive having Oscar-bait films that outright bombed. Yet with Washington, there are hardly as many examples when he’s actually aimed higher and still missed with Oscar voters, except for the likes of “Philadelphia,” “Courage Under Fire,” or a particularly above-average crowd-pleaser like “Inside Man” or “Remember the Titans.”
If anything, Washington’s likely safety as a Best Supporting Actor nominee is more of a curse to “Gladiator II’s” Best Picture campaign than anything else since his films rarely seem to get dragged in along with him. Yet maybe that could come back to haunt him when it comes to winning against the likes of Guy Pearce, Kiernan Culkin and Clarence Maclin, since Christopher Plummer is the only Supporting Actor winner of this era without a Best Picture nominee. But if anyone could defy that, it is someone who has two Oscars already for films that weren’t nominated, albeit in a different era.
Since so many other Oscar trends that would derail anyone else have been unable to stand in Washington’s way, that one might not have a chance either. In that regard, maybe if “Gladiator II” actually does pull off sneaking into Best Picture, it will hurt Washington’s candidacy as much as help it, considering that “Fences” sneaking in didn’t give him an extra edge over Affleck in the end. Yet Affleck was from a top three Best Picture frontrunner in “Manchester by the Sea,” just as Pearce is likely to be for “The Brutalist“—and maybe Maclin if “Sing Sing” has a significant comeback in it.
When it comes time to win, maybe that is when some regular Oscar trends apply to even a legend like Washington, especially given all his various questionable losses. Perhaps that is the price paid for so easily getting into a race whenever he makes the slightest effort, regardless of whether his movies come close to such an effort.
But whether or not this season has that same old ending for Washington, there is already little doubt that it has started with the same old beginning – even if “Gladiator II” is looking at a much rockier start and road ahead than him, like so many other Washington Oscar season movies before it.
So what do you think? We’re pretty sure Denzel Washington will be nominated for Best Supporting Actor for “Gladiator II,” but do you think the film will also be nominated for Best Picture? Please let us know in the comments below or on Next Best Picture’s X account, and be sure to check out Next Best Picture’s latest Oscar predictions here.
You can follow Robert and hear more of his thoughts on the Oscars & Film on X @Robertdoc1984
