When Oscar voting started, we asked you to imagine yourselves as Academy members, with Oscar ballots in hand, and cast your own choices for who you’d want to see win at the 98th Academy Awards tomorrow. Over 1,800 of you voted in the short period from when voting started on February 26th and ran until March 5th at 8 pm ET. We used preferential balloting for Best Picture, and all other categories used a plurality voting system.
In the last five years we’ve conducted this experiment with the community, your personal preferences have matched the eventual Academy Award winners this many times…
2019: 15/24
2020: 16/23
2021: 15/23
2022: 16/23
2023: 19/23
2024: 16/23
Will any of these translate on Oscar night? Please take a look at the Next Best Picture team’s latest predictions here and check our winners here.
And the (imaginary) Oscar goes to…
Best Picture
1. “One Battle After Another“
2. “Sinners”
3. “The Secret Agent”
4. “Hamnet”
5. “Sentimental Value”
6. “Marty Supreme”
7. “F1”
8. “Train Dreams”
8. “Bugonia”
10. “Frankenstein”
Interesting Takeaways:
“One Battle After Another” already led the first round with 636 votes (34%). It then picked up enough transfers to cross 50% in the second to last round between it, “Sinners” and “The Secret Agent.” “Sinners” held second place almost the entire count but couldn’t ever catch the leader. “The Secret Agent” stayed alive late due to middling rankings overall but it never surged to no. 1 or no. 2.
Best Director
Paul Thomas Anderson – “One Battle After Another“ (WINNER)
Ryan Coogler – “Sinners“ (RUNNER-UP)
Josh Safdie – “Marty Supreme“
Joachim Trier – “Sentimental Value”
Chloé Zhao – “Hamnet”
Best Actress
Jessie Buckley – “Hamnet” (WINNER)
Rose Byrne – “If I Had Legs I’d Kick You” (RUNNER-UP)
Kate Hudson – “Song Sung Blue”
Renate Reinsve – “Sentimental Value”
Emma Stone – “Bugonia”
Best Actor
Timothée Chalamet – “Marty Supreme” (WINNER)
Leonardo DiCaprio – “One Battle After Another”
Ethan Hawke – “Blue Moon”
Michael B. Jordan – “Sinners”
Wagner Moura – “The Secret Agent” (RUNNER-UP)
Best Supporting Actress
Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas – “Sentimental Value” (WINNER)
Amy Madigan – “Weapons” (RUNNER-UP)
Wunmi Mosaku – “Sinners“
Teyana Taylor – “One Battle After Another”
Elle Fanning – “Sentimental Value”
Best Supporting Actor
Benicio Del Toro – “One Battle After Another”
Jacob Elordi – “Frankenstein”
Delroy Lindo – “Sinners”
Sean Penn – “One Battle After Another” (RUNNER-UP)
Stellan Skarsgård – “Sentimental Value” (WINNER)
Best Adapted Screenplay
“Bugonia” – Will Tracy
“Frankenstein” – Guillermo Del Toro
“Hamnet” – Maggie O’Farrell & Chloe Zhao (RUNNER-UP)
“One Battle After Another” – Paul Thomas Anderson (WINNER)
“Train Dreams” – Clint Bentley & Greg Kwedar
Best Original Screenplay
“Blue Moon” – Robert Kaplow
“It Was Just an Accident” – Jafar Panahi, Nader Saeivar, Shadmehr Rastin & Mehdi Mahmoudian
“Marty Supreme” – Ronald Bronstein & Josh Safdie
“Sentimental Value” – Joachim Trier & Eskil Vogt (RUNNER-UP)
“Sinners” – Ryan Coogler (WINNER TIE)
Best Animated Feature
“Arco”
“Elio”
“KPop Demon Hunters” (WINNER)
“Little Amélie or The Character of Rain”
“Zootopia 2” (RUNNER-UP)
Best Documentary Feature
“The Alabama Solution”
“Come See Me in the Good Light”
“Cutting Through Rocks”
“Mr. Nobody Against Putin” (RUNNER-UP)
“The Perfect Neighbor” (WINNER)
Best International Feature Film
“It Was Just an Accident” – France
“The Secret Agent” – Brazil (RUNNER-UP)
“Sentimental Value” – Norway (RUNNER-UP)
“Sirāt” – Spain
“The Voice of Hind Rajab” – Tunisia
Best Casting
Gabriel Domingues – “The Secret Agent” (RUNNER-UP)
Nina Gold – “Hamnet”
Cassandra Kulukundis – “One Battle After Another”
Francine Maisler – “Sinners” (WINNER)
Jennifer Venditti – “Marty Supreme”
Best Cinematography
“Frankenstein”
“Marty Supreme”
“One Battle After Another” (RUNNER-UP)
“Sinners”
“Train Dreams” (WINNER)
Best Costume Design
“Avatar: Fire and Ash”
“Frankenstein” (WINNER)
“Hamnet”
“Marty Supreme“
“Sinners” (RUNNER-UP)
Best Film Editing
“F1”
“Marty Supreme” (RUNNER-UP)
“One Battle After Another” (WINNER)
“Sentimental Value”
“Sinners”
Best Make-Up & Hairstyling
“Frankenstein” (WINNER)
“Kokuho“
“Sinners”
“The Smashing Machine”
“The Ugly Stepsister” (RUNNER-UP)
Best Production Design
“Frankenstein” (WINNER)
“Hamnet”
“Marty Supreme”
“One Battle After Another”
“Sinners” (RUNNER-UP)
Best Original Score
“Bugonia”
“Frankenstein”
“Hamnet”
“One Battle After Another” (RUNNER-UP)
“Sinners” (WINNER)
Best Original Song
“Dear Me” – “Diane Warren: Relentless”
“Golden” – “KPop Demon Hunters” (RUNNER-UP)
“I Lied to You” – “Sinners” (WINNER)
“Sweet Dreams of Joy” – “Viva Verdi!”
“Train Dreams” – “Train Dreams”
Best Sound
“F1” (WINNER)
“Frankenstein”
“One Battle After Another”
“Sinners”
“Sirāt“ (RUNNER-UP)
Best Visual Effects
“Avatar: Fire and Ash” (WINNER)
“F1”
“Jurassic World: Rebirth”
“The Lost Bus”
“Sinners” (RUNNER-UP)
Best Animated Short Film
“Butterfly” (RUNNER-UP)
“Forevergreen”
“The Girl Who Cried Pearls” (WINNER)
“Retirement Plan”
“The Three Sisters”
Best Documentary Short Film
“All the Empty Rooms” (WINNER)
“Armed Only with a Camera: The Life and Death of Brent Renaud”
“Children No More: ‘Were and are Gone’”
“The Devil is Busy” (RUNNER-UP)
“Perfectly a Strangeness”
Live Action Short Film
“Butcher’s Stain“
“A Friend of Dorothy”
“Jane Austen’s Period Drama” (RUNNER-UP)
“The Singers”
“Two People Exchanging Saliva” (WINNER)
WIN TALLY
“One Battle After Another “- 4
“Sinners” – 4
“Frankenstein” – 3
“Sentimental Value” – 3
“All the Empty Rooms” – 1
“Avatar: Fire and Ash” – 1
“F1” – 1
“The Girl Who Cried Pearls” – 1
“Hamnet” – 1
“KPop Demon Hunters” – 1
“Marty Supreme “- 1
“The Perfect Neighbor” – 1
“Train Dreams” – 1
What do you think of the winners? Do you think any of these will translate to the actual Oscar winners on March 15th? Check out what the NBP Team voted on here. Please let us know your thoughts on our X account and be sure to listen to our final Oscar predictions podcast episode here. Please click here for more important upcoming dates this awards season and here for the most recent tally of awards season winners for the current year.
